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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

GEFS has been persistent with some snow members for our area the last 48 hours and the latest EPS took at least a trend in that direction at 12z for the first time. I’ve been played all winter, but at least it’s something to watch. Lots of big dogs though
FAED0263-B013-40B2-95B6-C6A91351FD57.png1E32B90F-F1AA-420A-B6F8-2668DC938310.png
 
Interesting to see the NWS here so bullish this far out

There
was no way around the need to introduce low snow or rain/snow mix
chances for next Saturday night and into Sunday given the high
potential for below normal temperatures, but it should be
stressed in the strongest terms possible, that uncertainty is
higher than normal for the forecast for next weekend. The message
right now is to check back on the forecast as the week progresses,
but what we can say right now is that below normal temperatures
look likely, with at least some low possibility for frozen
precipitation somewhere in the Southern Plains. Whether or not
that has significant (or any) impacts on North and Central Texas
remains to be seen.
 
Yes to me this has been one of the "coldest" Januarys I can remember. By "coldest" thinking we here had a lot of below average Daily Highs this year. No "normal pattern" of 60's 3-5 days then a cold snap. We also have not have much true cold weather (Lows in the teens, etc,.)
 
Broken024 said:
RC highs dropping down left and right
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deltadog03 said:
I think once we mute the SE ridge a bit it’s going to open the window for a big (maybe multiple) overrunning events potentially
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I believe with the -NAO it will be muted to some extent. If the -NAO wasn’t a fixture this winter as it seems to be, none of us would have a chance. I’m sure we’ll have a cutter or two to deal with but hopefully they will only serve to push any arctic boundary further and further east. Time will tell I guess...
 
BNAwx said:
I believe with the -NAO it will be muted to some extent. If the -NAO wasn’t a fixture this winter as it seems to be, none of us would have a chance. I’m sure we’ll have a cutter or two to deal with but hopefully they will only serve to push any arctic boundary further and further east. Time will tell I guess...
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It's hard to believe how we've had a persistent -NAO and January averaged above normal temps. I'm officially sold on the 2nd week of February providing real opportunities, however; way too much evidence to not be intrigued.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think once we mute the SE ridge a bit it’s going to open the window for a big (maybe multiple) overrunning events potentially
Click to expand...
Lets hope so. That clock starts ticking fast now. Got 5 weeks left to nail one down. Then its over minus the 1 in 10-15 year post March 10th rabbit out of the hat.
 
gawxnative said:
Yes to me this has been one of the "coldest" Januarys I can remember. By "coldest" thinking we here had a lot of below average Daily Highs this year. No "normal pattern" of 60's 3-5 days then a cold snap. We also have not have much true cold weather (Lows in the teens, etc,.)
Click to expand...
We'll be above average for the month here, despite reaching 60 for only a few days.
 
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