Even with the EPS showing what it’s showing today, I still hold that as long as the -NAO is there, the SER will trend weaker the closer we get to verification. As for the -NAO not doing anything for us, it absolutely is... it’s keeping us in the game for winter threats.... we’ve just not had the luck with timing for the most part which proves the point that Webb and other mets have said that even in good patterns, there still has to be good luck and timing to get snow in the southeast. Now hopefully we can get the MJO into phase some here in the next couple of weeks, but keep in mind that as we go deeper into February, the MJO has less impact. Also I remember seeing a post a couple weeks ago about MJO phases and relation to winter storms in NC...it looked like the only phase that was horrible for winter storms was 3 or 4.
