tennessee storm
Member
I starting to get feel we going see a large swath of a severe wx outbreak later month with the h5 pattern showing on models... say from the arkaltex to lower ohio valey need to pay very close attention ... then might get some cooler after the big system passes... some one could catch some nice snow on the backside of the system... looking forward to 12z runs todayI checked the MJO this morning, the GFS is putting it at neutral of phase 1/8 during 21-22 and then it goes back into phase 8 on the 25th. The GFS ensemble keeps it at a weak phase 8 after the 20th. Indices aren't that bad looking, wish the NAO will trend negative and the AO after the 20th. I'm thinking they will cause the GFS and EPS has been showing it getting colder after the 7-11 day system. I think the GEFS has also showing it getting colder.
Still going with my thinking, severe weather, specially south of I-20. Colder weather to follow after the phase takes place, depending on where the phase takes place, some states could transition over to snow.
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