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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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The ULL is looking good across the SW on this run. It has some interaction with the northern stream, but it's not a strong interaction.

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ForsythSnow said:
Also much more defined and stronger.
gfs_z500_vort_us_17.png
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Watch that on the water vapor ...
 
It's going to be another Gulf low on this run. 1035mb high coming down into the Plains. This isn't bad news, it's good.

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ATLwxfan said:
Rain is good for the drought.


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Speaking of the drought, it's looking somewhat better across the Southeast, but the lakes around here have a long way to recover. What is interesting is that nowhere in America is there an exceptional drought. If we can't get snow, give us the rain.
20170131_southeast_none.png
 
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
 
18z gfs is further SW with the H5 pattern overy the NE this run. Improvement no doubt , but still not good enough
 
Jon said:
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
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There is also much more cold air to tap into this time. Let's see if that comes south and the low gets it together. The 500mb vort looks way different this run as a whole.
 
Jon said:
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
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Yeah I bet we get at least one phased run over the next 48 hours
 
It seems that the ULL is hanging back a bit than other runs. Trough does also seem to be further west, which is good news.

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Jon said:
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
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Jon - You know how I tend to agree with you, though we look at differing data to generally come up with like conclusions. I'm not disagreeing with you here - but where the heck is cold coming from? Truly asking. I don't see it. But as you know - I can be wrong! LOL
 
pcbjr said:
Jon - You know how I tend to agree with you, though we look at differing data to generally come up with like conclusions. I'm not disagreeing with you here - but where the heck is cold coming from? Truly asking. I don't see it. But as you know - I can be wrong! LOL
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Not jon, but on this run verbatim there is actually more cold air to work with. A stronger high is also pushing down
 
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