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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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12z Euro could be a very good run, ULL much slower than the 00z


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And just as I say that the ULL is too far north in NE TX


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The low looks very far north to me at hr 144.

It is. I was hoping the ULL will spin around as a cutoff but it ejects and is too far north. Hard to predict the future lol! This run should be colder though


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ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_8.png
 
Sorry guys. Looks like the facts must be faced of lacking cold air.
 
I agree with Storm last night when he said "why would anyone write off a system 8 or 9 days away". I concur.
Well....if it don't start trending colder and if there's no ensemble support, I'm writing it off.

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With all due respect, and I have seen stranger things....when was the last time we saw a storm that started too warm trend for the better and stay better? Unless we see a phase or the bowling ball turns into what we saw in March '09, this one isn't going to work either (and never really started well).
 
With all due respect, and I have seen stranger things....when was the last time we saw a storm that started too warm trend for the better and stay better? Unless we see a phase or the bowling ball turns into what we saw in March '09, this one isn't going to work either (and never really started well).
100% agree
 
The 12z CMC is amazing close to what we want. Storm is very suppressed with the great lakes vortex swinging in. Slow the storm down 12 hours and we could get a decent phase, it would be game on. The look is much like the para was showing.

I'm not done with this storm at all...sure it probably won't happen, but until all models lock onto a situation, it's not over.
 
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