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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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12z CMC even has some overrunning at first, only if there was some cold air in place. We're 7 days away from the 15th, so the models will start to get a better fruition. I'd take some overrruning before the actual low gets kicked out.

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Stormlover said:
You aren't kidding. That shows it very clearly.
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I do not intend this as banter, but if you use the wind map and look at model runs, you can i) "see" what the models are showing (or may not be showing - like a low that isn't depicted, for example), and ii) oftentimes question (or validate) a run or outcome based on the visual dynamics - i.e., what's happening in real time upstream and downstream (so in that sense, it may be a "tool").
 
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metwannabe said:
EPS certainly doesn't offer any hope either.... well it has our storm so there's that
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I'll take E3 for the board . Better than nothing . there are a few members that offer hope to areas west of the apps . but not many . still over a week out so we Continue the painful tracking

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Storm5 said:
I'll take E3 for the board . Better than nothing . there are a few members that offer hope to areas west of the apps . but not many . still over a week out so we Continue the painful tracking

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Oh heck yeah I'd take that one too, I had not gone out in time far enough..... just a kick in the gonads man to see that track and no cold air source.
 
I'm going back to the severe weather thread at least there my neck of the woods actually gets stuff to track...:eek:
 
I must admit, the tracking of rain storms so far has been second to none! Time to stick a fork in this one and hold out some hope for the waning weeks of winter.
 
WXinCanton said:
I must admit, the tracking of rain storms so far has been second to none! Time to stick a fork in this one and hold out some hope for the waning weeks of winter.
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Here you go, if you're looking towards March - LOL

wk3_wk4_latest_NAsfc_T.gif
 
I'm so jealous of the northeast, that their going to get snow tomorrow. A weather page I follow on FB had a snowfall map with the link to AC/DC Thunderstruck for the theme song..... :/

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ATLwxfan said:
I'm not buying that 12z GFS run. Seems too warm. Let's see.


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The cold air is in Canada; any movement is generally east for now; there may be mechanisms to move it more SE in about a week, but that is a "may be" IMHO
 
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