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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SD said:
Yep certainly prefer to the CMC look here versus what the GFS is having with the cutoff drifting toward Cuba.
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GFS always does that. On the other hand, the CMC sucks.
 
ATLwxfan said:
In case anyone cares, 12z GFS was nearly an unyielding blowtorch from this weekend on.
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Pretty well sums it up ...
th_1.jpg
 
Euro showing the "big" storm on 2/22 but what a strange track for the LP. Goes from Western Alabama to the southern tip of Florida. Shows a CAD Wedge developing at the same time.
 
One would think the higher resolution NAM will handle the energy/orientation/shearing better. So I wouldn't throw the NAM out.

In fact, it would be one of my main tools from 48 hours out.
 
metwannabe said:
I guess this year, if the QBO is the potential driver for the persistent excessive Indonesian convection, which has basically been a SE adversary all Winter..... then in that regard there is some correlation between the QBO and SE Weather. It's been discussed so many times I know and I also know there is no clear answer (at least for my simple mind) but it just drives me insane sometimes to think we really don't know what drives what....
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Maybe it has been quite influential this winter, but, if so, will it be influential next winter? If so, how would I know BEFORE the winter? And IF it is going to be influential next winter or any winter I'm trying to forecast, what kind of influence would it be? Cold, neutral or warm? I still wonder like I've done probably for 10 years+ how to use the QBO. So, I pretty much ignore it. It may very well be a useful SE winter forecasting tool for some folks. However, if I, myself, don't know how to use that tool, then I'll leave it in the toolbox and instead I'll concentrate on using the many other tools I better know how to use and which have given good results.

If I had a crystal ball and was able to know in advance that there was going to be (averaged out through DJF) a solid +AO (or +NAO or -PNA or -PDO or +EPO or predominance of the MJO being on the right side of the diagram or a strong La Nina), I'd know that the odds would favor a warmer than normal SE winter based on that one particular index. Of course, I consider all of these in combo.

But what about the QBO? From all that I've read, there is nothing that simple to sink your teeth into. Does a +QBO correlate to a cold SE winter, a near normal SE winter, or a warm SE winter? Same question for a -QBO. If there is a simple correlation, it doesn't seem to be high based on any correlation analyses I've done. I mean if it is just a very weak correlatlon, what's the point in even trying to use it? In order to up the correlation, do we also have to know if it is rising, falling, or near steady? Rising but still negative? Rising and positive? Falling? Falling but still positive? Falling and negative? Steady and strongly positive? Steady and strongly negative? Rising and negative with a cooling sun but with the sun still nearer to its max? Rising and negative with a cooling sun and with the sun nearer to its min? Rising and negative with the sun at minimum? Rising and negative with the sun at maximum? Then you have to worry about how strong of a cycle the sun is in and how strong of a cycle the QBO is in. I could go on and on and on. The # of permutations gives me a headache lol! And if one must break down the QBO into numerous very specific permutations like I started to list for it to be useful, many of these very specific permutations will have no more than a handful of real life examples (winters) at most meaning low statistical credibility. For example, if there are exactly two cases of the QBO rising during a weak QBO with it still negative and the sun cooling with it just past maximum during a strong solar cycle, there's no point in analyzing it.
 
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mrdaddyman said:
Euro showing the "big" storm on 2/22 but what a strange track for the LP. Goes from Western Alabama to the southern tip of Florida. Shows a CAD Wedge developing at the same time.
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Oh man! I'm going to look at the Euro asap! Sounds like it has what I've been mentioning.

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GaWx said:
Maybe it has been quite influential this winter, but, if so, will it be influential next winter? If so, how would I know BEFORE the winter? And IF it is going to be influential next winter or any winter I'm trying to forecast, what kind of influence would it be? Cold, neutral or warm? I still wonder like I've done probably for 10 years+ how to use the QBO. So, I pretty much ignore it. It may very well be a useful SE winter forecasting tool for some folks. However, if I, myself, don't know how to use that tool, then I'll leave it in the toolbox and instead I'll concentrate on using the many other tools I better know how to use and which have given good results.

If I had a crystal ball and was able to know in advance that there was going to be (averaged out through DJF) a solid +AO (or +NAO or -PDO, or +EPO or predominance of the MJO being on the right side of the diagram or a strong La Nina), I'd know that the odds would favor a warmer than normal SE winter based on that one particular index. Of course, I consider all of these in combo.

But what about the QBO? From all that I've read, there is nothing that simple to sink your teeth into. Does a +QBO correlate to a cold SE winter, a near normal SE winter, or a warm SE winter? Same question for a -QBO. If there is a simple correlation, it doesn't seem to be high based on any correlation analyses I've done. I mean if it is just a very weak correlatlon, what's the point in even trying to use it? In order to up the correlation, do we also have to know if it is rising, falling, or near steady? Rising but still negative? Rising and positive? Falling? Falling but still positive? Falling and negative? Steady and strongly positive? Steady and strongly negative? Rising and negative with a cooling sun but with the sun still nearer to its max? Rising and negative with a cooling sun and with the sun nearer to its min? Rising and negative with the sun at minimum? Rising and negative with the sun at maximum? Then you have to worry about how strong of a cycle the sun is in and how strong of a cycle the QBO is in. I could go on and on and on. The # of permutations gives me a headache lol! And if one must break down the QBO into numerous very specific permutations like I started to list for it to be useful, many of these very specific permutations will have no more than a handful of real life examples (winters) at most meaning low statistical credibility. For example, if there are exactly two cases of the QBO rising during a weak QBO with it still negative and the sun cooling with it just past maximum during a strong solar cycle, there's no point in analyzing it.
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Yeah the QBO took me a while to wrap my head around as well and there are a lot of non-linear interactions w/ solar, ENSO, and other internal variability, but if you really boil it down, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation modifies the static stability and wind shear in the tropical stratosphere and upper troposphere which impacts the placement, frequency, and amplitude of tropical convection and the associated convectively coupled equatorial wave modes, and the wind regimes also alter the deposition of momentum imparted by upwelling of mid-latitude rossby waves, which ultimately impacts their efficiency to break down the polar night jet and disrupt the polar vortex.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the QBO took me a while to wrap my head around as well and there are a lot of non-linear interactions w/ solar, ENSO, and other internal variability, but if you really boil it down, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation modifies the static stability and wind shear in the tropical stratosphere and upper troposphere which impacts the placement, frequency, and amplitude of tropical convection and the associated convectively coupled equatorial wave modes, and the wind regimes also alter the deposition of momentum imparted by upwelling of mid-latitude rossby waves, which ultimately impacts their efficiency to break down the polar night jet and disrupt the polar vortex.
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I rest my case lol!
 
GaWx said:
I rest my case lol!
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Lol... What I find very intriguing about the QBO is how it serves as a really nice pathway providing a legitimate, yet still ambiguous connection linking external solar forcing to the stratosphere and ultimately, tropospheric variability... Most solar-tropospheric physical links to date are elusive and/or have yet to be fully understood or discovered...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol... What I find very intriguing about the QBO is how it serves as a really nice pathway providing a legitimate, yet still ambiguous connection linking external solar forcing to the stratosphere and ultimately, tropospheric variability... Most solar-tropospheric physical links to date are elusive and/or have yet to be fully understood or discovered...
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If it takes awhile for even a very smart guy like Webber to wrap his head around something, then I know I'll probably never really wrap my head around it lol.
 
I was looking over this mornings GFS run (06z) and that solution is possible rather than what the 12z GFS shows. On the 06z GFS from this morning, it has the low pivoting and almost stalling out. There's strong blocking in eastern Canada during that time period, so the pivoting of low and almost stalling out is possible. This is why down along the OH River and OH Valley may get a lot of snow. If the low pivots and almost stalls out further south and east, this could mean snow closer to the eastern seaboard rather than more inland. Yes, I know that severe weather is possible with this big storm. I think the best significant chance of severe weather will be along the Gulf Coast up to I-20 and some severe storms coming up along the MS River and the Savannah River and some storms in NC. I think NC will have less of an impact of severe weather cause the subtropical jet won't be as strong there like along the Gulf coast regions. But, severe weather won't be ruled out there.
 
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GaWx said:
Katl has averaged 2.5"/year of SN/IP over the last nine years. So, IMO, they have nothing to complain about as the very longterm avg has been 2.2" and the period of 1918-19 through 1977-8 averaged only 1.5"/year.
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Definitely a better average than I thought but mainly due to bigger storms. The overall theme has been for a bigger storm to happen after missing out on winter weather for 2 or more years in a row. I believe Jan 2011 was a good example of that as well as Feb 2014. So if we skip this year next year better be good! Lol.
 
On this date in 1899, as many of you are already well aware, a massive blizzard crippled the entire east (& even Gulf) coasts, and the airmass that followed was one of the coldest we've observed in the past few centuries. Temperatures were below freezing for nearly a week straight over the Carolinas, highs nearing the single digits were reported in parts of central NC and sub zero temperatures reached north Florida, blizzard conditions reported in Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg, and icebergs were reported flowing out of the Mississippi River at New Orleans, lol...
A swath of over 10-12"+ of snow fell from the midlands of South Carolina to Maine... Areas just south of Washington DC, the Delmarva and southern NJ performed the best with upwards of 30-36" of snow.
February 11-14 1899 Snowstorm Snowfall Map.png

Here's a picture from Fayetteville, NC following the Great Blizzard of 1899 where about a foot and a half of snow fell...
Fayetteville, NC snow February 1899 Blizzard.jpg
February 11-13 1899 NC Snowmap.png

Surface analysis from this event reveals that this was storm began as a prolonged overrunning event over the southeastern US on the leading edge of an incredibly strong arctic airmass, with a surface high pressure center of nearly 1055mb centered over the southern plains. However, as this system approached the Carolinas, it began to deepen rapidly, and the band of wintry precipitation on the northwest side of this area of low pressure expanded and intensified as it passed through SC and continued to do so as it bombed out off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
1899021206.gif
February 1899 blizzard surface map Feb 13 1899 12z.gif
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That's exactly why I've tried to put it in perspective. In some areas of the southeast, you can't think of "good winter" meaning snow. I would have called 2015 good even if I was in my hometown (which I was not, of course). In general unless it's a warm winter (sometimes even when it is but its rare) I'd say North Georgia (and I don't consider "Atlanta" North Georgia) has a better chance of at the very least seeing nickel and dime snow events but even my mom's old hometown which is very close to Tennessee (Although the issue of the Tennessee Valley might play a strong role in it) has had quite a few years of trace to shutout.

If you're in Atlanta proper and south or E/SE in Georgia, its pretty much all or nothing with snow and it's not going to happen yearly. Only three small snow events have happened at my house, and one was out of pure luck (convective snow from a winter storm that was going on in North Carolina). And in the 1995-2016 period, my hometown has had 5 legit snows southern style. I have a pretty impressive list of winter storms I experienced from 2010-2015, but two of them only really happened in North Georgia (Christmas in my mom's old hometown and the last semester I went to college in NW GA).
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Yes there's a huge snow difference from Nashville to just 35 minutes north of Nashville where I live on the highland rim. Many winters where Nashville sees one or two inches of snow I will see 5 inches or more. Last season when Nashville got 7-8 I ended up with a foot. Now obviously sometimes Nashville gets more if a storm doesn't come far enough north but that's the only time they will get more. There's been times where I've driven home from Nashville and I was 7-8 degrees colder. On average I'm about 5 degrees colder which makes all the difference on boarder line snow events.
 
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