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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Probably will be full of discussion on hurricanes, but who knows what summer will bring. Hopefully below normal temps and some more rain. We need it down here.
The last hurricane I've been through was either Katrina, (got the outter bands) or hurricane Dennis. I can't remember which one. It came in at night, (about 4-5am I believe) it was frightening. I went to my dads and there were two huge oak trees down in the front yard from the hurricane.

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Infrared satellite of the low coming this away. I like how it has the tail going down in the GOM.
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Not sure why I keep looking but the NAM trying to throw a few token flakes on backside of precip tomorrow...

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Not sure why I keep looking but the NAM trying to throw a few token flakes on backside of precip tomorrow...

I'm glad someone posted this. seems like the cold air advection usually wrings out a few flurries in the higher elevations in setups like this. I guess the moisture is just getting out about a half day too early?

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Here's your daily reminder of how much modern winters suck. Another beauty from February 1902 almost 3 years to the day after the great blizzard of 1899. Dumped up to a foot and half of snow from RDU to Charlotte.
February 15-17 1902 NC Snow map.png
 
Here's your daily reminder of how much modern winters suck. Another beauty from February 1902 almost 3 years to the day after the great blizzard of 1899. Dumped up to a foot and half of snow from RDU to Charlotte.
View attachment 159

ATL got a nice ~2" sleetstorm 2/14-5/1902. ATL does sleet very well and takes it very seriously. If you love sleet as I do, that's one of the better places to be. I'm sure that's the primary reason Tony lives nearby. It can't be anything else.
 
Have some patience guys. We are experiencing the results of a bad combo of a warm AMO and recent Solar ModernMaximum. When the AMO turns cold combined with the upcoming low solar activity it will turn around for snow lovers. Until then its going to be more dumpster fire winters with few decent ones mixed in. Thanks webber for the winter NC snowfall maps.Keep them coming. I save them all.This what we got to look forward to in the future.
 
Thanks webber for the winter NC snowfall maps.Keep them coming. I save them all.This what we got to look forward to in the future.
Ditto!
I wish Webb would open a library here! Truly ....

P.S. Edit - I wish he's also have some glorious snowfall maps for N FL, but records don't back to the glacial period ... :p
 
What in tarnation?!?! Folks may want to ignore the 18Z GFS because it sure looks pretty with the PV coming below Hudson Bay 2/27 and I don't want to get hopes up! 850's get as cold as -45C in SE Canada, which would almost have to be the coldest air at 850 this winter!!! That would surely be awfully frigid air lurking not too far away if it were to somehow verify. If only that dadblasted cold biased model would verify for once. OTOH, even the 12Z EPS was chilly for 2/28-3/1 and the EPS' cold bias is generally much smaller. Could we have a big turnaround near the end of the month? Stay tuned! History says it can occur even after an historically hot winter, which may actually make it less unlikely.
 
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What in tarnation?!?! Folks may want to ignore the 18Z GFS because it sure looks pretty with the PV coming down into Hudson Bay 2/27 and I don't want to get hopes up! 850's get as cold as -40C in SE Canada!!! That would surely be awfully frigid air lurking not too far away if it were to somehow verify. If only that dadblasted cold biased model would verify for once. OTOH, the 12Z EPS was chilly for 2/28-3/1 and the EPS' cold bias is generally much smaller. Could we have a big turnaround near the end of the month? Stay tuned!
Yes (!!), in response, it very well could happen from looking at some very long range upper air progs, and crossing fingers as I do so ...
I'm all in for killing azalea buds this year (teach them a lesson about blooming so early)!
 
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Yup, GFS is supporting the EPS, colder pattern late month into early March. Winter is not over, it may seem over for now, but winter will make a late return. GEFS on the MJO is showing that it will be in a weak phase 8 to a weak phase 7 during late month. 14 day AO outlook is showing about neutral, PNA appears that it will stay positive after the 16th but I think it will stay positive during late month. 14 day outlook of the NAO is trending slightly negative after the 17th or so.
 
What in tarnation?!?! Folks may want to ignore the 18Z GFS because it sure looks pretty with the PV coming below Hudson Bay 2/27 and I don't want to get hopes up! 850's get as cold as -45C in SE Canada, which would almost have to be the coldest air at 850 this winter!!! That would surely be awfully frigid air lurking not too far away if it were to somehow verify. If only that dadblasted cold biased model would verify for once. OTOH, even the 12Z EPS was chilly for 2/28-3/1 and the EPS' cold bias is generally much smaller. Could we have a big turnaround near the end of the month? Stay tuned! History says it can occur even after an historically hot winter, which may actually make it less unlikely.
The colder pattern late month into March is certainly possible. Once the stratosphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes, this will cause the cold weather to spill it's beans.
 
The colder pattern late month into March is certainly possible. Once the stratosphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes, this will cause the cold weather to spill it's beans.

The folks may also want to ignore the 18Z GEFS because it also looks pretty during late month and it also has a bad cold bias. But we can still hope, right?
 
If you live in raleigh and want rain tomorrow I probably just killed it by putting out preemergent

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As we know over many, many of years the southeast US winters are changing. Their getting warmer and seems like spring is making an appearance earlier every year. As the climate is warming, this will obviously cause less snow events, but it can mean bigger snow storms. As we know that, moisture holds better in warmer air masses than cooler air masses. More water evaporates into the atmosphere, The air's water-holding capacity rises about 7 percent with each warming of 1c (about 2F) of warming. The warming results in air that becomes supersaturated with water that can bring heavy rainfall or snowfall if it's cold enough. I truly believe that after such a warm winter a significant snowstorm can occur, especially as the transition occurs from winter to spring.

If we go back to 2010, the east experienced below normal temps. for an extended period of time and back to back winter events even in the southeastern states. In fact, in Feb. of 2010 every state (except Hawaii) had snow on the ground. Think again that winter is over, things can happen, don't let the above normal temps fool you.
 
The folks may also want to ignore the 18Z GEFS because it also looks pretty during late month and it also has a bad cold bias. But we can still hope, right?

Please wake me when this winter quits teasing 15 days out...LOL!


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I would love to be pleasantly surprised but I think this winter is done. My only caveat is...later on this month or early March areas in the upper south that are north of I-40 might get a winter storm but who knows. We're too far out to really tell on that.

Next year almost has to be at a very minimum near seasonal, this winter was much worse than last year. Last year only had one month that was really well above and this year is likely to have two that are well above and one that was slightly above. Flirting with 80 in January even if its a couple times is purely crazy. I've seen plenty of 60s-70s in my past in January...but 80? In what's typically the coldest month of the year?

It'd be just wonderful if we topped off this really warm winter with a hard freeze in March to help ruin fruit trees/bushes.
 
PV may be paying a visit close by but 2 M temps are a blowtorch on the GFS in the long range. Hate to be negative but that Boundary Layer is going to be a bear to deal with by March 1st.
 
For the folks that have forgotten or just don't know, early to mid March can still get very cold deep down into the US. For example, on 3/2/1980 there was snow falling in much of the SE with temperatures as cold as the teens during the daytime! On 3/13/1993, the Storm of the Century caused heavy snow and blizzard conditions for many followed by lows down into the teens and even the single digits in some places like Birmingham. These kinds of temperatures would challenge the coldest all of this winter.

March, 1960, was the coldest month of the entire winter for much of the SE with 10 degrees for the coldest at Atlanta! It was colder than an average January there! There wasn't just one nor just two but THREE major winter storms there during the 1st half of March!!! They don't get major winter storms but about once every 2 winters on average.

Two more examples: March of 1932 and March of 1890 were each colder than Dec, Jan, or Feb at Atlanta and probably much of the SE. Those were two of the three warmest winters on record in much of the SE.

Don't count your winter chickens before the March lion has his say!
 
The eps has a similar look from days 10-12 but it washes out by d15. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pretty decent shot of cold at months end into early March. As for a wintry threat...ehh

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For the folks that have forgotten or just don't know, early to mid March can still get very cold deep down into the US. For example, on 3/2/1980 there was snow falling in much of the SE with temperatures as cold as the teens during the daytime! On 3/13/1993, the Storm of the Century caused heavy snow and blizzard conditions for many followed by lows down into the teens and even the single digits in some places like Birmingham. These kinds of temperatures would challenge the coldest all of this winter.

March, 1960, was the coldest month of the entire winter for much of the SE with 10 degrees for the coldest at Atlanta! It was colder than an average January there! There wasn't just one nor just two but THREE major winter storms there during the 1st half of March!!! They don't get major winter storms but about once every 2 winters on average.

Two more examples: March of 1932 and March of 1890 were each colder than Dec, Jan, or Feb at Atlanta and probably much of the SE. Those were two of the three warmest winters on record in much of the SE.

Don't count your winter chickens before the March lion has his say!

And on Archer Rd? LOL
Seriously asking!
No time to deal with weather in detail for 3 days - but good info!
Phil
 
The eps has a similar look from days 10-12 but it washes out by d15. I wouldn't be shocked to see a pretty decent shot of cold at months end into early March. As for a wintry threat...ehh

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we're all singin' Dixie ...

frosty morn
old times etc...
(not the political part)
 
If you live in raleigh and want rain tomorrow I probably just killed it by putting out preemergent

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I didn't think there was any left in the RDU area!? Somebody bought it all, I thought!? :(
 
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