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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SD said:
You guys do know this is just leading to an epic cold dump in March or early April

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karma from this end posting here is bad today, but one more shot at redemption -
hasn't this year already dumped enough skat for the boot heels
'night
:confused:
 
I forgot to obey one of my rules with the February 16th precip. That rule is "If it didn't show well before it started being suppressed, it's probably not going to be good as a north trend will always happen no matter what". Alas...

I really hope there isn't even a light freeze after this warm spell. If there is it's just going to mess everything up. Frosts will be fine but not a light freeze. I hope it just stays around seasonal.

Of course with me saying it we'll drop to 25 for just ONE night in 16 days and it's going to ruin the blueberry plants in my backyard.
 
SD said:
You guys do know this is just leading to an epic cold dump in March or early April

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Yeah although there is no reason to think this pattern won't persist. One of those I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.


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Again, even with the ridiculous temp forecasts and obvious "early Spring" idea. I still have a sneaking suspicion of a sleet/ice event somewhere in the SE before it's over.

Personally, I'd rather just head into Spring and skip it.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Yeah although there is no reason to think this pattern won't persist. One of those I'll believe it when I see it sort of things.


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I agree about it persisting but we are good at having ugly March and Aprils after warm winters

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I'm back from taking a nap, (which I shouldn't have done lol). Anyway, I checked the 12z EPS, sure does look interesting, starting at day 12.
 
bouncycorn said:
792e0a1791cab834d1923094ff0251f1.jpg


The Glenn hath spoken and over is winter.


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He's been posting them outlooks up all winter. Next winter, I'm not having that crap lol! These outlooks have limited skill, they change these all the time.
 
The Indonesian convection/low frequency ENSO standing wave is beginning to disintegrate as the MJO pushes into the Pacific... Here's the latest 10 day mean divergent wind vectors, OLR, and 200 hpa velocity potential

OlrChiVdiv_tp200hPa_20170212.gif
 
Glenn is usually very conservative anyway but unfortunately, this time he'll be right. This is like those 2011-2013 winters and winters from 2006-2008. Very warm. I hope next winter is at least seasonable because this January was just ridiculous.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Glenn is usually very conservative anyway but unfortunately, this time he'll be right. This is like those 2011-2013 winters and winters from 2006-2008. Very warm. I hope next winter is at least seasonable because this January was just ridiculous.
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As ridiculous as this January was it wasn't nearly as ridiculous as December of last winter ! It just amazes me that even with it being +8 or +9 we still somehow managed to get snow. Meanwhile, February 2015 was like -7 and no snow at all IMBY !
 
Webberweather53 said:
On this date in 1899, as many of you are already well aware, a massive blizzard crippled the entire east (& even Gulf) coasts, and the airmass that followed was one of the coldest we've observed in the past few centuries. Temperatures were below freezing for nearly a week straight over the Carolinas, highs nearing the single digits were reported in parts of central NC and sub zero temperatures reached north Florida, blizzard conditions reported in Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg, and icebergs were reported flowing out of the Mississippi River at New Orleans, lol...
A swath of over 10-12"+ of snow fell from the midlands of South Carolina to Maine... Areas just south of Washington DC, the Delmarva and southern NJ performed the best with upwards of 30-36" of snow.
View attachment 144

Here's a picture from Fayetteville, NC following the Great Blizzard of 1899 where about a foot and a half of snow fell...
View attachment 141
View attachment 142

Surface analysis from this event reveals that this was storm began as a prolonged overrunning event over the southeastern US on the leading edge of an incredibly strong arctic airmass, with a surface high pressure center of nearly 1055mb centered over the southern plains. However, as this system approached the Carolinas, it began to deepen rapidly, and the band of wintry precipitation on the northwest side of this area of low pressure expanded and intensified as it passed through SC and continued to do so as it bombed out off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
View attachment 145
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8 days below freezing here. Incredible.

fd7208d53503b254bf5b691de07ee578.jpg



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mrdaddyman said:
Funny. We're looking for snow pixels on a model run and Maine has had 4 feet of snow in the last week. Can we trade climates?
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No kidding and there is a good chance those pixels won't verify. Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day across the area with clouds and highs in the 40s....oh wait...thats just winter
 
SD said:
No kidding and there is a good chance those pixels won't verify. Tomorrow is going to be an ugly day across the area with clouds and highs in the 40s....oh wait...thats just winter
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HAHA!


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Strongest MJO pulse on record for this time of the year in Ventrice's Velocity Potential MJO index. IMO, it's a more accurate measure of MJO activity in the western hemisphere vs RMM because RMM's OLR component tends to keep it confined to the Maritime Continent/ Indo-West Pacific Warmpool regions. Will be interesting to see how ENSO responds to this
C4odYInWMAAkq6E.jpg
 
SoutheastRidge said:
All I know is that I can not endure another summer like last year. Please God have mercy on us ! I would love a repeat of the 2003 summer !
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That was the most thunderstormy summer I can ever remember. From spring till August there were rarely more than a two to three day stretch without a thunderstorm. Some days we would hear thunder off and on all day long.
 
SD said:
I will take this precip total

nam4km_apcpn_seus_14.png
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That certainly has a better chance to verify then those snow pixels which btw were gone on the 12z gfs.... Still with this system there was a NW trend, that's the only thing we can be sure of in Winter it seems
 
metwannabe said:
That certainly has a better chance to verify then those snow pixels which btw were gone on the 12z gfs.... Still with this system there was a NW trend, that's the only thing we can be sure of in Winter it seems
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Yep. It started out tracking through central Florida on the GFS model last week. We see where it's going to end up.
 
Yes. When GEFS and EPS are in a war, generally the EPS will win.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yep. It started out tracking through central Florida on the GFS model last week. We see where it's going to end up.
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I had thought and stated here that there was a good chance that this time the typical NW trend would not occur due to the historically high +PNA (which is verifying quite well in typical GEFS PNA form by the way as it gets to near or just above +2.0 tomorrow, the highest day in winter since 1983!!) in combo with a strong -AO (not verifying well,,,,the typical GEFS -AO bias is verifying as the peak forecast is only down to near -2 for tomorrow vs the -3 that had been forecasted) and the historically strong phase 8 (which looks to be verifying well...challenging all time Feb record strong phase 8 today).

Actually, this low has sped up quite a bit since the forecasts of mid last week (by ~24 hours) and the entire atmospheric configuration has changed drastically vs what was on especially the GFS. An absolutely horrible performance by the GFS. The Euro to its credit had only one run with the low as far south as near the Gulf coast.
 
SnowHusky said:
He's been posting them outlooks up all winter. Next winter, I'm not having that crap lol! These outlooks have limited skill, they change these all the time.
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I hear you though they have held together pretty well this season.


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ATLwxfan said:
I hear you though they have held together pretty well this season.


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Yeah, I agree, it just seems like Glenn rubs it in everytime GA is under the above normal temps. Lol

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Based on the latest forecast for KATL, it looks like Feb. will likely end up in the 54-56 range, which would be ~7-8 warmer than normal! this comes after a Jan that was nearly 9 warmer than normal and a Dec that was nearly 4 warmer than normal. So, DJF is aiming to be close to 7 warmer than normal or near 52 F. The only other winters on record warmer than 52 are the 54.3 of 1889-90 and the 52.5 of 1879-80. Also nearby is 1931-2 at 51.8.
 
GaWx said:
Based on the latest forecast for KATL, it looks like Feb. will likely end up in the 54-56 range, which would be ~7-8 warmer than normal! this comes after a Jan that was nearly 9 warmer than normal and a Dec that was nearly 4 warmer than normal. So, DJF is aiming to be close to 7 warmer than normal or near 52 F. The only other winters on record warmer than 52 are the 54.3 of 1889-90 and the 52.5 of 1879-80. Also nearby is 1931-2 at 51.8.
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seems like a day for non-weather pursuits, unfortunately :confused:
 
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