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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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mrdaddyman said:
PV may be paying a visit close by but 2 M temps are a blowtorch on the GFS in the long range. Hate to be negative but that Boundary Layer is going to be a bear to deal with by March 1st.
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And sun angle, of course!
 
pcbjr said:
And on Archer Rd? LOL
Seriously asking!
No time to deal with weather in detail for 3 days - but good info!
Phil
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Thanks. In March, 1960, Archer Road had a whopping 13 lows in the 30's or colder. The coldest was 27 way out on 3/22!

It got down to 22 on 3/3/1980!That day's high was only 50 with a cold rain.

On 3/14/1993, the high was only 49 after a low of 28.
 
GaWx said:
For the folks that have forgotten or just don't know, early to mid March can still get very cold deep down into the US. For example, on 3/2/1980 there was snow falling in much of the SE with temperatures as cold as the teens during the daytime! On 3/13/1993, the Storm of the Century caused heavy snow and blizzard conditions for many followed by lows down into the teens and even the single digits in some places like Birmingham. These kinds of temperatures would challenge the coldest all of this winter.

March, 1960, was the coldest month of the entire winter for much of the SE with 10 degrees for the coldest at Atlanta! It was colder than an average January there! There wasn't just one nor just two but THREE major winter storms there during the 1st half of March!!! They don't get major winter storms but about once every 2 winters on average.

Two more examples: March of 1932 and March of 1890 were each colder than Dec, Jan, or Feb at Atlanta and probably much of the SE. Those were two of the three warmest winters on record in much of the SE.

Don't count your winter chickens before the March lion has his say!
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Yeah, a barrage of winter storms struck NC in March 1960. I haven't analyzed the storms from March 1932 for NC but there were several...
March 2-4 1960 NC Snowmap.png

March 9-10 1960 Snowmap.png
March 11-12 1960 NC Snowmap.png

March 16 1960 NC Snowmap.png
 
GaWx said:
t got down to 22 on 3/3/1980!That day's high was only 50 with a cold rain.

On 3/14/1993, the high was only 49 after a low of 28.
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Those 2 I distinctly remember! The 2nd (1980) - I was at a Gulf station out on what was then a 2 lane Newberry Rd @ I-75 very early in the AM and a few of the cars that were pulling in from the southbound lane (headed from up north) had bits of ice and snow still on them. It was a raw day ...
 
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Storm5 said:
I can't take anymore of webbers winter storm history lol. It's like falling and getting a cut from the hip to the ankle , having someone come along and pour salt in it and rub it down with sandpaper. lol
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but it heals and then it's a good war story :p
 
Storm5 said:
I can't take anymore of webbers winter storm history lol. It's like falling and getting a cut from the hip to the ankle , having someone come along and pour salt in it only to rub it down with sandpaper. lol
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May have to start making some of his painful post disappear (JK)


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GeorgiaGirl said:
I would love to be pleasantly surprised but I think this winter is done. My only caveat is...later on this month or early March areas in the upper south that are north of I-40 might get a winter storm but who knows. We're too far out to really tell on that.

Next year almost has to be at a very minimum near seasonal, this winter was much worse than last year. Last year only had one month that was really well above and this year is likely to have two that are well above and one that was slightly above. Flirting with 80 in January even if its a couple times is purely crazy. I've seen plenty of 60s-70s in my past in January...but 80? In what's typically the coldest month of the year?

It'd be just wonderful if we topped off this really warm winter with a hard freeze in March to help ruin fruit trees/bushes.
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When I lived in Southern California we had some 90s during Christmas a few times. Of course you could make a 2 hour drive to the mountains and see a few hundred inches of snow for the weekend.
 
heavy rain?" mon/tue for Alabama
16716289_803177486503221_8343414019272071592_o.png
 
olhausen said:
When I lived in Southern California we had some 90s during Christmas a few times. Of course you could make a 2 hour drive to the mountains and see a few hundred inches of snow for the weekend.
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We might live to see 90s during the winter in Tennessee if this keeps up.
 
SnowHusky said:
Yup, March can bring many surprises.



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Surprise! I have active fire ant mounds,Bradford pears blooming, and daffodils, my Bermuda is about to green up! :(
 
[QUOTE="Jeremy Camp, post: 19749, member: 711
Look like it's breaking up!!.[/QUOTE]

It is breaking up cause of the vortex to the north. See how the shield of clouds is flat? it has a confined edge, that's the vortex at work.
 
Oh, Ooo, the 18z GEFS shows a Gulf low coming up on March 1st with cold air just to the north and west. Wonder if the 0z GFS OP will have that feature. Track of low is following the SE coast.
 
whatalife said:
May have to start making some of his painful post disappear (JK)


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If it makes you feel any better I'll remind you that on this date back in 1895, Beaumont/Port-Arthur, TX received 30" of snow, Houston 24", and Lake Charles, LA 22", all w/ snowfall climatologies that are several times worse than Atlanta, Columbia, and Augusta...
:p
Screen Shot 2017-02-14 at 11.26.41 PM.png
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
There's things in this world I will always question and doubt but the Wake county screw zone is never one of them haha
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On February 17-19 1989, a massive winter storm struck the northern part of the state, dumping over a foot of snow in the VA border counties. In Butner and far southern Granville counties, 15" of snow was reported while at the airport 6" fell, and 2" just south of the Beltline. where sleet/freezing rain dominated. In fact, for areas ust south of Raleigh along a line from about Monroe through Carthage, Lillington, and Goldsboro-Wilson this was a pretty crippling ice storm. Lmao #shafted
 
Hold on tight boys and girls. It looks like another cold run of the GFS late month into early March.
 
Lol, this is just insanity... Henderson, NC went from 80F to 15" of snow in a little over a day in February 1989. So much for those warm ground temps...
Screen Shot 2017-02-14 at 11.54.03 PM.png
 
GaWx said:
Hold on tight boys and girls. It looks like another cold run of the GFS late month into early March.
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-EPO returns!!! -20 850mb anomalies over the SE, that's some real cold diving down after hour 300... I won't hold my breath...


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Cary_Snow95 said:
There's things in this world I will always question and doubt but the Wake county screw zone is never one of them haha
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Here's my map pertaining to the event... I've also included predominant precipitation types and amounts and overlaid these on the actual snow & sleet accumulations.
February 17-19 1989 NC Snowmap.png
 
Finally, seems like things is looking coldish end of month first of March. Don't let anybody this warm winter air fool ya, because like Larry posted above plus his analogs things can get pretty interesting around those time frame. Me personally I like my winter storms end of February first of March anyways lots of rich moisture to supply
 
6z GFS still look good LR. Nice possible pattern change end of month into March. I bet we get something wintry in that time period
 
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