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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SnowHusky said:
I checked the MJO this morning, the GFS is putting it at neutral of phase 1/8 during 21-22 and then it goes back into phase 8 on the 25th. The GFS ensemble keeps it at a weak phase 8 after the 20th. Indices aren't that bad looking, wish the NAO will trend negative and the AO after the 20th. I'm thinking they will cause the GFS and EPS has been showing it getting colder after the 7-11 day system. I think the GEFS has also showing it getting colder.

Still going with my thinking, severe weather, specially south of I-20. Colder weather to follow after the phase takes place, depending on where the phase takes place, some states could transition over to snow.

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I starting to get feel we going see a large swath of a severe wx outbreak later month with the h5 pattern showing on models... say from the arkaltex to lower ohio valey need to pay very close attention ... then might get some cooler after the big system passes... some one could catch some nice snow on the backside of the system... looking forward to 12z runs today
 
shoulder-deep-snow.jpg
me 3 years ago, lol
 
SnowHusky said:
I checked the MJO this morning, the GFS is putting it at neutral of phase 1/8 during 21-22 and then it goes back into phase 8 on the 25th. The GFS ensemble keeps it at a weak phase 8 after the 20th. Indices aren't that bad looking, wish the NAO will trend negative and the AO after the 20th. I'm thinking they will cause the GFS and EPS has been showing it getting colder after the 7-11 day system. I think the GEFS has also showing it getting colder.

Still going with my thinking, severe weather, specially south of I-20. Colder weather to follow after the phase takes place, depending on where the phase takes place, some states could transition over to snow.

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Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
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I agree 100 percent. it wasn't until this year when I saw your post back in early January abiut the gfs and gefs and their horrible mjo forecasts . it clearly has a problem or a bias . either way,I won't trust it

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Webberweather53 said:
Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
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I can understand that, cause the GFS has been having a colder bias. It's certainly not impossible that the MJO will go back into phase 8 for late month. There's limited skill with modeling starting from mid-range into the long range, as you know.

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SnowHusky said:
I can understand that, cause the GFS has been having a colder bias. It's certainly not impossible that the MJO will go back into phase 8 for late month. There's limited skill with modeling starting from mid-range into the long range, as you know.

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No, I've seen this movie from the GEFS way too many times, it's not going to happen lol...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Be weary of the GFS trying to stick the MJO back into phase 8 later in the month, the GFS is notorious for doing this, i.e. erroneously sticking the MJO in phase 8 in virtually every long range forecast... You can almost always count on the GFS to produce spurious western hemisphere MJO predictions in the medium-long range...

Colder is more relative than absolute here, it really couldn't get much warmer than this...
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Very great points Eric.


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Webberweather53 said:
No, I've seen this movie from the GEFS way too many times, it's not going to happen lol...
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Oth, it's certainly possible for it to return to the Western Hemisphere in March, however if by random chance the GEFS is miraculously correct, and we see the MJO retrograde back over phase 8, it really wouldn't qualify as an MJO pulse to begin w/, such behavior is reminiscent of the RMM Principal Components actually projecting onto twin convectively coupled kelvin waves which doesn't necessarily have the same sensible impacts as an MJO event.
 
Regardless of details wrt the MJO and specific disturbances, we're likely going to be in a for a bumpy ride the next few weeks as the subtropical jet goes on steroids thanks largely to the MJO. We should remain alert for rapidly changing weather conditions, forecasts, and severe weather. The next few days should be a nice appetizer for those south of the I-20 corridor.
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ATLwxfan said:
I have a feeling we could have a wet few weeks coming up which hopefully eases the drought.


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Lets hope so because we're getting to the time of year when the drought can start intensifying, especially with the increasing sun angle.
 
Probably worth mentioning that the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm this year, with some of the highest SSTAs since at least the 1970s. Certainly bodes well for severe wx prospects later in the spring as the air masses advected northward in advance of mid-latitude rossby waves will originate from a warmer source region, modify appreciably less, and likely have higher vapor pressures...
NCEP NCAR Reanalysis January GOM SSTs (1948-2016)
climindex.152.7.52.63.43.9.12.49.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png
 
1. From my experience in following MJO forecasts over the last several years, the EPS has on average been a significantly better forecaster than the GEFS. So, if one wants to pick one, I'd easily pick EPS. However, even EPS has had some pretty significant misses of its own this winter, especially in the 11-14 day period.

2. My pro met contact insists today that the excess Indonesian convection is not letting up anytime soon and says the odds favor it continuing into March since something like that typically doesn't disappear too quickly. His thinking has been that that makes the apparent wx in the E US act as if the MJO were in warmer phases (like 4-6) regardless of the "official" MJO phase and has been the main factor in the warm E US winter.
 
all of this is making me come to the realization that i hate severe! carry on .... :confused:

Edit - it's also making me realize how much learning there still is to do :cool:
 
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GaWx said:
1. From my experience in following MJO forecasts over the last several years, the EPS has on average been a significantly better forecaster than the GEFS. So, if one wants to pick one, I'd easily pick EPS. However, even EPS has had some pretty significant misses of its own this winter, especially in the 11-14 day period.

2. My pro met contact insists today that the excess Indonesian convection is not letting up anytime soon and says the odds favor it continuing into March since something like that typically doesn't disappear too quickly. His thinking has been that that makes the apparent wx in the E US act as if the MJO were in warmer phases (like 4-6) regardless of the "official" MJO phase.
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I always thought that Indonesian convection was directly linked the MJO, so is the issue the "excessive" Indonesian convection?
 
metwannabe said:
I always thought that Indonesian convection was directly linked the MJO, so is the issue the "excessive" Indonesian convection?
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Yes. He says it has been persisting regardless of the MJO phase and, therefore, has been a driver much of the winter. Believe me when I tell you that this is all new to me and has been a learning experience. I trust this guy because he seems brilliant with this kind of stuff. He kind of reminds me of Webber lol.

I may have been halfway joking before but I really wouldn't mind seeing a separate Indonesian index that is forecasted by the EPS. I mean if it can have this much pull over other things like the official MJO phase, why not?
 
pcbjr said:
all of this is making me come to the realization that i hate severe! carry on .... :confused:

Edit - it's also making me realize how much learning there still is to do :cool:
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I've been freaking myself out watching all these eye witness recordings of tornadoes. I NEVER want to experience that, I like a nice thunderstorm but y'all can keep them tornadoes.
 
GaWx said:
Yes. He says it has been persisting regardless of the MJO phase and, therefore, has been a driver much of the winter. Believe me when I tell you that this is all new to me and has been a learning experience. I trust this guy because he seems brilliant with this kind of stuff. He kind of reminds me of Webber lol.
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Great a new wrinkle in things lol.... so I know this is kind of a chicken or the egg thing but if that has been a driver much of the winter, what is the cause of the excessive convection? What's driving what?? Lol
 
SoutheastRidge said:
That's exactly what Atlanta is dealing with. 5 out of 6 winters have been horrible. Just be glad you live far enough north that you see snow every winter.
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Yes but you live in Atlanta and I would think it's quite normal to not see snow for a number of winters in a row. It's not normal up here to possibly end up with one dusting for the entire winter. But it isn't alarming to me unless it starts happening multiple winters in a row.
 
olhausen said:
Yes but you live in Atlanta and I would think it's quite normal to not see snow for a number of winters in a row. It's not normal up here to possibly end up with one dusting for the entire winter. But it isn't alarming to me unless it starts happening multiple winters in a row.
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I've lived south of I-20 all my life until this winter. I saw more snow than you this winter but if I was still living south of I-20 I would have been shut out again !
 
metwannabe said:
Great a new wrinkle in things lol.... so I know this is kind of a chicken or the egg thing but if that has been a driver much of the winter, what is the cause of the excessive convection? What's driving what?? Lol
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I believe Webber or someone else thinks there is a connection of sorts between the persistent Indonesian convection and the QBO. The QBO is one index that I have had trouble getting a good feel for as regards correlation to SE winter temperatures. I'm not saying there isn't a correlation but I'm not all that aware of it. Maybe there's a weak correlation? I mean I know that there's a nontrivial direct correlation of the +PNA, +PDO, -EPO, -NAO, -AO and MJO 8 to SE cold. But the QBO seems more complex or vague compared to these as regards this correlation such as is it rising, falling, high amp, low amp, codependency on the sun, etc. based on what I've read over the years. I've even attempted to do my own statistical/history correlation analyses and have so far been unsuccessful in determining anything of consequence.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I've lived south of I-20 all my life until this winter. I saw more snow than you this winter but if I was still living south of I-20 I would have been shut out again !
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Katl has averaged 2.5"/year of SN/IP over the last nine years. So, IMO, they have nothing to complain about as the very longterm avg has been 2.2" and the period of 1918-19 through 1977-8 averaged only 1.5"/year.
 
tennessee storm said:
bet last time there were any flakes of snow there were 1977 winter. lol when Miami recorded flurries even that winter... I live about 20 minutes north I 40 had 2n half inches all winter got that on January 6th system..
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"Any flakes" - not hardly. We had a good 3 - 4 hours in Jan 2016. In fact, here (Gainesville) it's a little weird - it's not postcard Florida; we generally have some flakes or sleet or pings at least once during any given winter - but the last accumulation was Dec 1989. This year, nothing - but then, I'm in good company ... ;)
 
olhausen said:
Yes but you live in Atlanta and I would think it's quite normal to not see snow for a number of winters in a row. It's not normal up here to possibly end up with one dusting for the entire winter. But it isn't alarming to me unless it starts happening multiple winters in a row.
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That's exactly why I've tried to put it in perspective. In some areas of the southeast, you can't think of "good winter" meaning snow. I would have called 2015 good even if I was in my hometown (which I was not, of course). In general unless it's a warm winter (sometimes even when it is but its rare) I'd say North Georgia (and I don't consider "Atlanta" North Georgia) has a better chance of at the very least seeing nickel and dime snow events but even my mom's old hometown which is very close to Tennessee (Although the issue of the Tennessee Valley might play a strong role in it) has had quite a few years of trace to shutout.

If you're in Atlanta proper and south or E/SE in Georgia, its pretty much all or nothing with snow and it's not going to happen yearly. Only three small snow events have happened at my house, and one was out of pure luck (convective snow from a winter storm that was going on in North Carolina). And in the 1995-2016 period, my hometown has had 5 legit snows southern style. I have a pretty impressive list of winter storms I experienced from 2010-2015, but two of them only really happened in North Georgia (Christmas in my mom's old hometown and the last semester I went to college in NW GA).
 
GaWx said:
Katl has averaged 2.5"/year of SN/IP over the last nine years. So, IMO, they have nothing to complain about as the very longterm avg has been 2.2" and the period of 1918-19 through 1977-8 averaged only 1.5"/year.
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And how much has ATL averaged over the last 6 winters, from 2011-12 to 2016-17 ?
 
pcbjr said:
"Any flakes" - not hardly. We had a good 3 - 4 hours in Jan 2016. In fact, here (Gainesville) it's a little weird - it's not postcard Florida; we generally have some flakes or sleet or pings at least once during any given winter - but the last accumulation was Dec 1989. This year, nothing - but then, I'm in good company ... ;)
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yeah I been to Gainesville once to the swamp for a football game to watch my vols get drilled... and been through there going to Orlando Disney world... nice community I thought... but to many gator fans for me there lol
 
GaWx said:
I believe Webber or someone else thinks there is a connection of sorts between the persistent Indonesian convection and the QBO. The QBO is one index that I have had trouble getting a good feel for as regards correlation to SE winter temperatures. I'm not saying there isn't a correlation but I'm not all that aware of it. Maybe there's a weak correlation? I mean I know that there's a nontrivial direct correlation of the +PNA, +PDO, -EPO, -NAO, -AO and MJO 8 to SE cold. But the QBO seems more complex or vague compared to these as regards this correlation such as is it rising, falling, high amp, low amp, codependency on the sun, etc. based on what I've read over the years. I've even attempted to do my own statistical/history correlation analyses and have so far been unsuccessful in determining anything of consequence.
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I guess this year, if the QBO is the potential driver for the persistent excessive Indonesian convection, which has basically been a SE adversary all Winter..... then in that regard there is some correlation between the QBO and SE Weather. It's been discussed so many times I know and I also know there is no clear answer (at least for my simple mind) but it just drives me insane sometimes to think we really don't know what drives what....
 
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