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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Hrrr has some showers moving through this evening. Interesting. Didn't see that one coming

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Storm5 said:
three years today .....
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Well on this day in history at this exact time this system was moving in 7 yrs ago...
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Webberweather53 said:
As recently as 2007-08 Raleigh received 0.5" of snow...
Raleigh has also been shutout several times as well, including 2 winters in a row from 1990 to 1992. Here's a list of all the winters in chronological order with 0.5" of less of snow and their respective amounts. 11 of 14 of these years w/ 0.5 or less of snow have occurred since the mid 1940s indicative of the long term, low frequency decline in snowfall due in large part to a warming climate, and this is liable to continue over the coming decades...

Winter Snow amount (in)
1887-88 0.1"
1902-03 T
1908-09 T
1944-45 T
1948-49 T
1949-50 T
1952-53 0
1956-57 0
1990-91 0
1991-92 0
1996-97 0.4"
1998-99 0
2005-06 0
2007-08 0.5"
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1. Interestingly, despite having an average annual snowfall about 1/3 of Raleigh, ATL has been shutout only once since snowfall records started in 1890 vs the 6 times for Raleigh! That was in 1924-5. However, ATL has gotten a T for its total many more times than the five times for Raleigh. ATL has received a T of SN for its seasonal total 27 times.

For the years listed here:

Winter Raleigh ATL
1887-88 0.1" N/A
1902-03 T T
1908-09 T T
1944-45 T T
1948-49 T T
1949-50 T T
1952-53 0 1.3"
1956-57 0 T
1990-91 0 2.1"
1991-92 0 5.0"
1996-97 0.4" 1.3"
1998-99 0 0.4'
2005-06 0 T
2007-08 0.5" 1.4"

ATL has received a T or less only 10 times since 1957-8 (17% of 59 winters) (though 3 of those have been just since 2011-2). However, they got exactly a T or less 20 times 1890-1 through 1956-7 (30% of 67 winters). That's a bit of a stat oddity as both periods averaged ~2.2"/winter. I have to wonder if this is due to a measuring bias of the observers.

2. ATL received a whopping ~3.5"/winter 1890-1 through 1917-8. Then they dropped way down to only ~1.5"/winter 1918-19 through 1977-8 . However, what's interesting is that they have since recovered to ~2.5"/winter 1978-9 through 2015-6! Over the last 9 winters, alone, they have received ~2.5"/winter. So, nobody should be complaining in ATL.

However, of course, ZR also needs to be considered at both Raleigh and ATL to get a full look at the wintry precip picture.
 
I can't believe how warm this winter was. I knew there was a good chance that January and February would end up being above average temperature wise and thought December would be around climo or maybe a little below but December ended up being a little above average and now there's an excellent chance that both January and February end up recording well above average temperatures. I've seen plenty of warm winters, but this is unlike what I've seen in my life. 1990 was an excellent analog but this ended up being even milder than that.
 
SD said:
Same thing here been stuck between 81.6 and 82.3

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Thermometer on my car just hit 84 on the way to the Harris Teeter, wearing shorts, a t-shirt, and my flippy floppies. I wish winter would make up it's mind, though, and either stay like this or actually act like a real winter for a while.
 
This run was close to being interesting for North Carolina but is no cigar outside of spotty areas in the mountains.
 
The good news for those who are sick of the warmer than normal weather is that the GEFS and EPS continue to insist on seasonal temp.'s returning for ~2/25. If it were the GEFS, alone, I wouldn't buy it due to its really bad cold bias this winter. However, the EPS cold bias has not been nearly as bad. So, perhaps there's a chilly light at the end of the warm tunnel near the end of the month. Also, consider what happened in March of 1890 and 1932.
 
I don't care about cold if there is no snow with it. I would rather it just stay like today instead of temps in the 40s and rain every now and then.
 
GaWx said:
The good news for those who are sick of the warmer than normal weather is that the GEFS and EPS continue to insist on seasonal temp.'s returning for ~2/25. If it were the GEFS, alone, I wouldn't buy it due to its really bad cold bias this winter. However, the EPS cold bias has not been nearly as bad. So, perhaps there's a chilly light at the end of the warm tunnel near the end of the month. Also, consider what happened in March of 1890 and 1932.
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only back then... global warming wasn't even an issue that far back... each winter seems to be warmer and warmer... did I just say that... lol
 
In 1889-90, the warmest winter on record by a good margin, ATL was +12/+8/+8 for DJF. Then all heck broke loose so to speak.

Last half of Feb. 1890 very warm daily departures at ATL:

2-15 +4.9
2-16 +5.7
2-17 +9.4
2-18 +14.7
2-19 +16.0
2-20 +11.3
2-21 -8.0
2-22 -5.7
2-23 +10.5
2-24 +20.3
2-25 +19.5
2-26 +17.3
2-27 +16.5
2-28 +8.8


Then came the very cold first half of March of 1890:

3-01 -21.0
3-02 -27.3
3-03 -19.0
3-04 -5.8
3-05 +0.5
3-06 -12.8
3-07 -18.6
3-08 -14.3
3-09 -14.1
3-10 -5.3
3-11 +4.4
3-12 +10.6
3-13 +10.4
3-14 -7.9
3-15 -16.6
3-16 -26.4
 
GaWx said:
In 1889-90, the warmest winter on record by a good margin, ATL was +12/+8/+8 for DJF. Then all heck broke loose so to speak.

Last half of Feb. 1890 very warm daily departures at ATL:

2-15 +4.9
2-16 +5.7
2-17 +9.4
2-18 +14.7
2-19 +16.0
2-20 +11.3
2-21 -8.0
2-22 -5.7
2-23 +10.5
2-24 +20.3
2-25 +19.5
2-26 +17.3
2-27 +16.5
2-28 +8.8


Then came the very cold first half of March of 1890:

3-01 -21.0
3-02 -27.3
3-03 -19.0
3-04 -5.8
3-05 +0.5
3-06 -12.8
3-07 -18.6
3-08 -14.3
3-09 -14.1
3-10 -5.3
3-11 +4.4
3-12 +10.6
3-13 +10.4
3-14 -7.9
3-15 -16.6
3-16 -26.4
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Makes sense that something similar could happen, but what is the potential for something like this to happen where we go from dumpster fire to a cold spell?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Makes sense that something similar could happen, but what is the potential for something like this to happen where we go from dumpster fire to a cold spell?
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This year? O
No diving mechanism, if you mean "cold".
It may get cool after the low does its thing in about 10 days +/-, but cold? Not gonna happen. There's nothing to support such a scenario.
(now watch it happen - LOL)
 
ForsythSnow said:
Makes sense that something similar could happen, but what is the potential for something like this to happen where we go from dumpster fire to a cold spell?
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There is not anywhere near a large enough sample size of extremely warm winters to even try to determine the chance. This is more of a don't assume it will stay warm in March just because DJF overall was a dumpster fire kind of message. 1931-2 was similar to 1889-90. So, two of the three warmest ATL winters were like this being that the 2nd warmest DJF, 1879-80, didn't turn cold in March.

Anyone have any feel for whether or not the Indonesian convection will calm down soon?
 
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I hoped to never experience a winter like those three listed above, but here we are. The good news is, it can't get much worse. During the traditional winter months of DJF, 1931-32 and 1889-90 is about as bad as it can get.
 
cd2play said:
I hoped to never experience a winter like those three listed above, but here we are. The good news is, it can't get much worse. During the traditional winter months of DJF, 1931-32 and 1889-90 is about as bad as it can get.
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I can't go back to 1891-92, but 1933-34 as a follow-up was not too terribly good :(
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malak05 said:
Not Sure on exact timing but Temps would be more supportive per 850s, for upper portions of South but haven't looked at surface temps
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Well, surface temps don't look great, for sure, if you're looking for frozen. But as a rule of thumb (only) @ this time of year, if you're looking at 850 maps, add about 12 - 15 º and you'll generally have a good idea of surface - but then, unless you want zr or the like - surface temps mean little when it comes to getting frozen to fall ....
 
pcbjr said:
Well, surface temps don't look great, for sure, if you're looking for frozen. But as a rule of thumb (only) @ this time of year, if you're looking at 850 maps, add about 12 - 15 º and you'll generally have a good idea of surface - but then, unless you want zr or the like - surface temps mean little when it comes to getting frozen to fall ....
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Yep I've had snow fall a few time while ground temps were in the lower 40s.
 
SD said:
Congrats on your victory today. I feel like this is the July thread

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Thanks it's sad isn't it it does feel like a July drought thread..... it only lasted about five minutes.

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SD said:
Congrats on your victory today. I feel like this is the July thread

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This is sad when we have July weather in February. Please just shoot me now and lets call it a winter.


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