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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Storm5 said:
it's every man for himself . to hell with every backyard but mine lol

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LOL I hear ya! I was looking hard on the TT precip map for any blue pixels at all in the SE. Couldn't see a single one. I keep hoping that one will appear on the NW side of the rain shield at some point.
 
Shawn said:
You guys do realize that it's too warm right? How are we magically going to get the cold regardless of track?
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Your right about to warm, but the track is perfect. I'll take my chances on a colder solution lol. Every man for himself.
 
The key is what happens in the NE with the northern stream. Going to be hard to get a radically different setup that would deliver a stout feed of cold into the storm this go-round.
 
Rain Cold said:
LOL I hear ya! I was looking hard on the TT precip map for any blue pixels at all in the SE. Couldn't see a single one. I keep hoping that one will appear on the NW side of the rain shield at some point.
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don't worry , we will be worried about severe and flooding by Friday lol

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Rain Cold said:
The key is what happens in the NE with the northern stream. Going to be hard to get a radically different setup that would deliver a stout feed of cold into the storm this go-round.
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Like you said earlier its probably cold/dry or warm/rain....it would be so razor thin for us. With this eastern trough not really tapping a really solid arctic airmass all we have is hope.
 
Shawn said:
You guys do realize that it's too warm right? How are we magically going to get the cold regardless of track?
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No offence but that sounds like a noob question. Lol. With the track of low, this can allow for the colder air to move south from the vortex. The GFS has it too far north and east. CMC has it more where we'd like it. It is a colder run on the 12z GFS.

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My eyes may be deceiving me but I think the temperatures are trending in the right direction (albeit just by a little) and this storm itself is trending south (this is definitely going on). However when has a storm ever trended south and STUCK? My mind is at a blank. Usually its the opposite. There's too much stuff that will likely go on in the northeast to make this storm go cut unless we see an early full phase but there just isn't enough cold air. Even with a good climatology track.

Although I think I remember a previous run or three that had snow eventually in the upper half of NC from this.
 
SnowHusky said:
No offence but that sounds like a noob question. Lol. With the track of low, this can allow for the colder air to move south from the vortex. The GFS has it too far north and east. CMC has it more where we'd like it. It is a colder run on the 12z GFS.

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It was a statement. Maybe the Polar Vortex will sit over Cancun next run.
 
Shawn said:
So we have a GFS that's too warm which usually overdoes cold. We have a CMC that is known to be cold that is still too warm. We don't have much if any ensemble support.
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Yes, let's not forget about the ensemble support and let's all try not to focus just on the GFS and CMC. The 0z Euro EPS has something totally different than CMC and GFS.

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SnowHusky said:
Yes, let's not forget about the ensemble support and let's all try not to focus just on the GFS and CMC. The 0z Euro EPS has something totally different than CMC and GFS.

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but the eps is way too warm regardless

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Storm5 said:
it's every man for himself . to hell with every backyard but mine lol

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It's that time of the game for sure!! Lol.... I love that GFS run personally, temps fine here just need the NW trend to get precip and game on, besides I pushed my chips to the middle on this couple days ago. :weenie:
 
metwannabe said:
It's that time of the game for sure!! Lol.... I love that GFS run personally, temps fine here just need the NW trend to get precip and game on, besides I pushed my chips to the middle on this couple days ago. :weenie:
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You tipped your hand to early in the card game! ;)
 
There really isn't a good cold source or mechanism to get a lot of cold into this system even if the northern stream gets through ahead of the southern stream energy. A good amount of the cold air in Canada evacuates over the next 7 days and there isn't a cross polar flow to reestablish cold. It's marginal at best along the far northern edge of the precip shield and even there its probably not working out.
 
SD said:
There really isn't a good cold source or mechanism to get a lot of cold into this system even if the northern stream gets through ahead of the southern stream energy. A good amount of the cold air in Canada evacuates over the next 7 days and there isn't a cross polar flow to reestablish cold. It's marginal at best along the far northern edge of the precip shield and even there its probably not working out.
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EPO screwing the pooch..... I agree with Shawn the pacific hates us
 
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