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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Webberweather53 said:
There is really not a whole lot to get excited about wintry wx wise in the SE US with the big storm after the 20th... The airmass is way too warm overall and if anything the general pattern is more supportive of severe wx.
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THIS ^^^


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SoutheastRidge said:
Larry, I'm not really sure a cold March does Atlanta any good. Do you know what the temps were like in March 1993 ? I saw 10 inches of snow that month but don't recall if it was AN or BN for temps.
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3/1993 was cool but not cold and not nearly as cold as 3/1890 and 3/1932. I don't see 3/1993 as an analog based on both different ENSO and DJF having been normal. But it too had its coldest in March.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There is really not a whole lot to get excited about wintry wx wise in the SE US with the big storm after the 20th... The airmass is way too warm overall and if anything the general pattern is more supportive of severe wx.
Click to expand...
agree 100 percent...im not really even seeing a remotely chance of getting cold in march... going to have your average cool downs behind storm systems that have a better chance at severe wx... fairly confident severe wx fixing to rock pretty soon.
 
Looks like the all time record at rdu for Feb is 84 we might give that a run for its money

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SD said:
Looks like the all time record at rdu for Feb is 84 we might give that a run for its money

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I just don't get it. Why is it so much freakin warmer in NC than in GA ?? I doubt we hit 70 today. It was only 61 yesterday while Charlotte was like 77 ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I guess all of those people who said it would be a front loaded winter were right.
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For me it was easy to call a front loaded winter just based off ENSO. Strong Ninas torch in Feb, Weak Nina's torch in March...so when folks were saying back loaded it made no sense to me. But I didn't see Dec and Jan going the way it did (warm). The only forecast I've seen nail the entire period for the most part is Webber's.


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If only we had cold....
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9ea5695b5dd6fdd276489d22f532dd26.jpg



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Honestly, I'm ready for spring/summer so we can hurry get back to fall/winter to start fresh again, LOL.
 
It looks like Raleigh has had about 1/2" of snow/ice this winter ? When's the last time Raleigh finished a winter with that little snow ?
 
SD said:
Looks like the all time record at rdu for Feb is 84 we might give that a run for its money

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Lol. I think that record is safe but the fact that you'll be close is amazing enough.


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ATLwxfan said:
Lol. I think that record is safe but the fact that you'll be close is amazing enough.


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A few places in OK hit 99 yesterday, so it could be worse!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It looks like Raleigh has had about 1/2" of snow/ice this winter ? When's the last time Raleigh finished a winter with that little snow ?
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As recently as 2007-08 Raleigh received 0.5" of snow...
Raleigh has also been shutout several times as well, including 2 winters in a row from 1990 to 1992. Here's a list of all the winters in chronological order with 0.5" of less of snow and their respective amounts. 11 of 14 of these years w/ 0.5 or less of snow have occurred since the mid 1940s indicative of the long term, low frequency decline in snowfall due in large part to a warming climate, and this is liable to continue over the coming decades...

Winter Snow amount (in)
1887-88 0.1"
1902-03 T
1908-09 T
1944-45 T
1948-49 T
1949-50 T
1952-53 0
1956-57 0
1990-91 0
1991-92 0
1996-97 0.4"
1998-99 0
2005-06 0
2007-08 0.5"
 
Webberweather53 said:
As recently as 2007-08 Raleigh received 0.5" of snow...
Raleigh has also been shutout several times as well, including 2 winters in a row from 1990 to 1992. Here's a list of all the winters in chronological order with 0.5" of less of snow and their respective amounts. 11 of 14 of these years w/ 0.5 or less of snow have occurred since the mid 1940s indicative of the long term, low frequency decline in snowfall due in large part to a warming climate, and this is liable to continue over the coming decades...

Winter Snow amount (in)
1887-88 0.1"
1902-03 T
1908-09 T
1944-45 T
1948-49 T
1949-50 T
1952-53 0
1956-57 0
1990-91 0
1991-92 0
1996-97 0.4"
1998-99 0
2005-06 0
2007-08 0.5"
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What stands out to me is that every winter from 1904 to 1944 had at least 1/2" of snow and also every winter from 1958 to 1990 had at least 1/2" of snow.
 
Even though it's been a warm winter, one thing I've noticed is that we've had a lot of cloudy days here in Georgia.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As recently as 2007-08 Raleigh received 0.5" of snow...
Raleigh has also been shutout several times as well, including 2 winters in a row from 1990 to 1992. Here's a list of all the winters in chronological order with 0.5" of less of snow and their respective amounts. 11 of 14 of these years w/ 0.5 or less of snow have occurred since the mid 1940s indicative of the long term, low frequency decline in snowfall due in large part to a warming climate, and this is liable to continue over the coming decades...

Winter Snow amount (in)
1887-88 0.1"
1902-03 T
1908-09 T
1944-45 T
1948-49 T
1949-50 T
1952-53 0
1956-57 0
1990-91 0
1991-92 0
1996-97 0.4"
1998-99 0
2005-06 0
2007-08 0.5"
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Oh the 90s what a great time to be a young snow weenie

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My goodness is that storm massive. That's a pretty good severe look, and I'd think with those dewpoints it wouldn't dissipate as easily as shown.
 
hahahahaha we end up with another shortwave apparently cranking in a circle with that big storm in fantasy land.
 
SD said:
Oh the 90s what a great time to be a young snow weenie

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Yea, the 90s weren't known for wintry wx in the SE US except for the March 1993 superstorm, but what a great decade for hurricanes in the Carolinas esp in the mid-late 1990s, although it still doesn't hold a candle to 1893 when two hurricanes passed over central NC in the same year. I could certainly live with this though...
Bertha (1996)
Fran (1996)
Bonnie (1998)
Dennis (1999)
Floyd (1999)
 
Webb - I defer to you, but something that strong might act as a triggering mechanism to pull some cold air down from Canada. Looking at some wind models, it seems a possibility (note - I don't say "probability" LOL)
 
Those two pieces do phase that I have been mentioning. The question is where it phases? That's still unknown. There is evidence that there could be severe wx before the phase occurs. There is still limited skill at this range. The models have been hinting at the major EC storm, so there is a chance that a strong EC storm will occur and the model has been consistent with the signal. If the phase occurs off of the SE coast, there could be a significant snowstorm along the east.

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Shawn said:
Be careful looking for Winter weather. This look has severe written all. over it. I first noticed a real look yesterday on the Canadian.
Could be scary stuff.
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That thing has everything but winter written all over it - 100% in your camp!
 
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