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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I badly wanted to give some more thoughts last night but I was so fatigued for some reason I just stayed quiet. Ah, look at that, a suppressed solution but there isn't enough cold air. I think the cold air issue is improving a bit though.
 
Massive 1022 HP over the Lakes at 192. Low in the Gulf is quite a bit farther west than 6Z. Also, vortex in the NE is quite a bit farther south. Doesn't appear to translate to much difference here. Great track and rain.
 
Wow, perfect track

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
 
Hey, I'll take that track of low with no cold air this far out. It may just trend colder if that track of low stays where it's at from this run.

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I think in time we can reel in some more cold air in the system.
 
SD said:
You could probably make due with that column here but absolutely no moisture this far north
Click to expand...

There would be precip here with that track. Edit...we'd be on the edge. But I do believe the low is too far south. Either way, the way it looks right now, the cold is so marginal that it would either be cold enough for wet snow and we end up dry, or we end up wet with it slightly too warm for snow.
 
The trend is south. Would like to see it trend further south so the eventual nw trend doesn't give us a cutter.


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Wow, that's looking more like it on the CMC. Trough is further west and south where we want it.

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The upper air depiction looks decent on the CMC, but thicknesses not as good and still no precip.
 
gfs_T2m_us_33.png
these temps during the event. CMC colder. Nice trend with the 12z
 
So we have a GFS that's too warm which usually overdoes cold. We have a CMC that is known to be cold that is still too warm. We don't have much if any ensemble support.
 
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