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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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The GFS has a massive northern stream bias of making it too slow initially and southern stream too fast. Right now it's so close to a phase that I worry it'll overcorrect its bias and the southern stream ends up being too fast for the northern stream.


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I love this setup, like Jon said this thing closed off in central Texas. If it can slow down a litte, then game on. Perfect setup, fun times
 
0z CMC is closer at having a southeastern winter storm. PV is where I want it that I showed in my video. But, the southern stream is too fast.

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The 18z Para GFS has a very far south Miller A that appears to cross FL just north of Tampa early on 2/16. However, once again, there is a lack of cold to the north. Anyway, the para keeps tracking the low south of the op GFS.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Folks, what we're looking for is not cold, but for a cold core low to develop...
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without temperatures of 32 degrees or lower
SnowHusky said:
SSTs are warming some out in the Pacific, leaning towards of that El Nino, if the SSTs continue to warm, it will be active with storm systems coming along in the southern stream. We're already seeing that now on the models with two big possible storms during the 15th-16th and another one showing up during the 20th time period.

I'd expect a strong -NAO after the 16th-18th time period. Will the AO still be tanking? Possibly, we'll have to keep an eye on the blocking and see what leads up.

I don't understand why some forecasters try to predict things 2-3 months ahead of time. Yes, we can get an idea up but nothing is set in stone in the long range, even sometimes things aren't set in stone in the short range around here for winter weather.

Storm system changes the heights all the time, cause storm system's are changing track in the long range all the time. One thing leads to another, another leads to another....chain reaction.

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Fingers are crossed!!.
 
GaWx said:
The 18z Para GFS has a very far south Miller A that appears to cross FL just north of Tampa early on 2/16. However, once again, there is a lack of cold to the north. Anyway, the para keeps tracking the low south of the op GFS.
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06z GFS takes a more para like approach this run.

Maybe it's me wish-casting and it looks like the 06z GEFS is taking a little more southern track w/it's members...

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whatalife said:
06z GFS takes a more para like approach this run.

Maybe it's me wish-casting and it looks like the 06z GEFS is taking a little more southern track w/it's members...

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Definitely better than 0z was. I think that this is definitely going to be a storm now for sure, just don't know its track. Based off of the way it looks now, it could either be an apps runner or a southern low. The cold air looks better as well, and I think we see a trend in colder air coming up. I feel the cold air being close ATM is close enough because of the recent forecast busts of temps being too high. Maybe it is just this area, but if the models have been missing something, maybe they are missing something in the upcoming pattern.
 
Intrigued by the overnight runs...the EPS disappoints me a little bit but everything else looked pretty good. We have to get the NS through even faster than the 6z GFS to have a chance at a storm but then you fight suppression....fun
 
Honestly I would much rather the 7 day track be pretty far south and suppressed. Hopefully the treck south starts soon, because the nw trend is guaranteed inside 3 days.


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bouncycorn said:
Honestly I would much rather the 7 day track be pretty far south and suppressed. Hopefully the treck south starts soon, because the nw trend is guaranteed inside 3 days.


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You are correct but there is just not going to be any cold air around.
 
Definitely would like to see a more extensive and deeper snowpack to our north for us to score w/ this storm and have a chance here. That's likely not going to happen (outside of perhaps the mountains) if the southern edge of the snowpack is near the Ontario/Quebec-US border. Good luck trying to refrigerate and sustain any oncoming Cp airmass...
gfs_snowdepth_conus_31.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Definitely would like to see a more extensive and deeper snowpack to our north for us to score w/ this storm and have a chance here. That's likely not going to happen (outside of perhaps the mountains) if the southern edge of the snowpack is near the Ontario/Quebec-US border. Good luck trying to refrigerate and sustain any oncoming Cp airmass...
View attachment 46
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In a majority of cases, the southern periphery of the snowpack often provides some decent bearings on the storm track due differential in albedo across the edge of the snowpack which augments local and regional temperature gradients, thus increasing lower-level baroclinicity that fuels mid-latitude extratropical cyclones. Hence, you usually want to see the southern edge of the snowpack anywhere from being practically in our backyard to the I-70 corridor for the SE US to score... Anything north of that and you start having (more) issues wrt preserving incoming Cp &/or arctic air masses and the storm track lifting to our north.
 
No good trends overnight dispite the improved low location, it's still moving in too early, even for NC...its trending away from a phase and there's likely not going to be as deep if s trough to even make a phase work for NC. The last 5 runs of the GFS are speeding up the ULL ejection. Cold hasn't been on our side this year so I'm not expecting it to magically show up...need to take our chances with slowing this storm down to move in at precisely the 850mb minimum...even then we'd deal with mixing issues, WAA, all the good stuff.


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