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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Webberweather53 said:
Thanks! To briefly summarize the main points from what I just said...
a) The QBO and Indonesian convective anomalies are coupled, and their interactions should be viewed as such instead of cause-and-effect
b) The observed higher than normal Indonesian convection is primarily due to ENSO, but the westerly QBO is significantly contributing.
c) The MJO initiated by the recent sudden stratospheric warming event may have jump started a series of processes and reactions that could cascade into completely disintegrating the above normal Indonesian convection that's been observed for most of this winter. We really need to closely monitor these changes going forward, because we're at the time of the year where ENSO is more responsive to higher frequency variability like the MJO. The point I'm really trying to get across here is that the MJO tends to have the most significant effect on ENSO at this time of the year, in and around the Northern Hemisphere's spring equinox.
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changes!
Thanks, Webb!
 
SnowHusky said:
Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 are already showing up warmer SSTs, these are the anomalies.

badd53e8169ae9f8c67d68a48d907644.jpg


SST consolidation NINO, about 27.5c (about 80F)

0e4c03b0cafae5a9f71671f8451deb0c.jpg


I also think there's going to be a pattern change coming late this month into March.

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SnowHusky said:
Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 are already showing up warmer SSTs, these are the anomalies.

badd53e8169ae9f8c67d68a48d907644.jpg


SST consolidation NINO, about 27.5c (about 80F)

0e4c03b0cafae5a9f71671f8451deb0c.jpg


I also think there's going to be a pattern change coming late this month into March.

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SnowHusky said:
If the QBO is the most driver and causing complications with everything else and when this troposphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes this will release the complications and make the pattern flip into more of a favorable El Nino pattern. When this pattern change occurs, I do think that the east won't be experiencing much above-normal temps late this month into early March. The reason why I think this is becuase it's a transition. So, with the east being so warm for the most of this winter, the cold we've been wanting all winter will make an appearance late this month into early March. It may not be 30+ degrees below normal or nothing like that though. But we'll just have to see about that cause there are complications going on with the pattern. The temp anomalies may not be that accurate right now but they will be once the pattern transition occurs or shorty before it occurs.

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Indonesia is concerning to me, should be to most all in USA going forward next 6 weeks.


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RollTide18 said:
What if we get a huge snowstorm to end the winter? Talk about a epic trolljob
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The way things look lately, I would not be surprised to see someone get a big sleet/ice storm. I know they are a little less common this late into Winter, but in the deep south, all bets are off. Northern areas of the SE still have a snowy chance.
 
Shawn said:
The way things look lately, I would not be surprised to see someone get a big sleet/ice storm. I know they are a little less common this late into Winter, but in the deep south, all bets are off. Northern areas of the SE still have a snowy chance.
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Pretty much, unless we're talking about a ULL or some convective snow showers, which can happen in March.
 
Looks a bit closer to a possible phase , barring a squash this run. ULL low is kaput and opened up / wave. So could be a Northern solution this run.

Likely sucks for us.
 
Shawn said:
Looks a bit closer to a possible phase , barring a squash this run. ULL low is kaput and opened up / wave. So could be a Northern solution this run.

Likely sucks for us.
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Yep. Looks a little north...


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Looks like a robust piece is being left behind and more defined in a half phase (or squash) situation. Who knows where this run goes now. Good luck everyone.
 
Shawn said:
Looks like a robust piece is being left behind and more defined in a half phase (or squash) situation. Who knows where this run goes now. Good luck everyone.
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The stronger energy hanging back is definitely a good thing, a early phase would spice things up for NC as long as the cold press is solid...can't call this over just yet!


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RollTide18 said:
Pretty much, unless we're talking about a ULL or some convective snow showers, which can happen in March.
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honest to God - I woke up on July 4, 1978 and it was snowing - 48º but it was snowing - lake effect - so anything is possible - but probable - ??????? got my doubts
 
2M look hellish through hr 90. 850s draped across NC
 
By the time 850s and surface cooperate at all, moisture is heading out. Not even making it to NC when the good stuff can happen (2m still sucks). Could still pull a rabbit out, but ugh.
 
Thought the run would be a bit better, looks like we'll have to watch the light moisture ride the 850mb 0c line throughout the event and enjoy our cool rain. What a winter!


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Jon said:
Thought the run would be a bit better, looks like we'll have to watch the light moisture ride the 850mb 0c line throughout the event and enjoy our cool rain. What a winter!


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Yeah man. Outside the mountains, 2m were horrible. Even they didnt do too well.
 
Jon said:
Thought the run would be a bit better, looks like we'll have to watch the light moisture ride the 850mb 0c line throughout the event and enjoy our cool rain. What a winter!


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Jon - when you're down - it's hell ... LOL
problem is - you're usually 99.9% there correct.

Rx? o_O
 
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Shawn said:
Yeah man. Outside the mountains, 2m were horrible. Even they didnt do too well.
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Yep this storm never slowed down enough, only when it spun around on the west coast for a couple of runs...borderline 850mb temps with moisture moving in from 12-18z isn't going to work.


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