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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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whatalife said:
I'm whatalife and I approve this message.


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DadOfJax said:
I think the guys that manage this site are hands down running the best weather discussion site that there is. Things don't always have to stay right on topic. That is what makes this place great....it's not micro-managed, so-to-speak. A wide range of opinions are offered here, some more knowledge based than others. It appears you are a little sensitive to the fact that a winter weather event is looking less and less likely for your area, but that doesn't have to ruin you. Look forward to spring, it is a beautiful thing IMO.
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Thanks . To piggyback your don't let it ruin you statement . Look, there is nothing wrong with being wrong . It's part of it. There isn't a person out there that gets it right 100 percent of the time. Hell I'm wrong 90 percent of the time and have been for years. That's why I keep coming back. trying to learn from others to at least get down to 89 percent lol.

Like you said different opinions are not only a good thing , they are needed . Everyone needs to be challenged regardless if you know little or alot . As Shane said, we are trying to be more open when it comes to posting. Sure there is banter in this thread but truthfully, there isn't much going on right now . If we were looking at a real threat we would obviously move or delete the banter posts .

I also am of the belief that if someone says something 100 percent incorrect that there is nothing wrong with someone explaining that they are incorrect. Goes back to trying to learn . That is the issue with other boards, people who think they " know everything " pop in say that someone is wrong but then they don't take the time to try and explain to or help that person . The high horse attitude. That attitude is ------ and helps no one.

We want members to be able to say whatever , suggest whatever and to help eachother. Not attack , say people are wrong and have that I know more than you attitude

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SD said:
This winter reminds me of Mark gottfried....started off well now I'm ready for a change

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lol I was ready for a change 2 seasons ago...on both fronts. I mean 3/4" of snow for the entire winter??? And losing to Wake Forest by 30? By 30!??!!
 
Storm5 said:
Thanks . To piggyback your don't let it ruin you statement . Look, there is nothing wrong with being wrong . It's part of it. There isn't a person out there that gets it right 100 percent of the time. Hell I'm wrong 90 percent of the time and have been for years. That's why I keep coming back. trying to learn from others to at least get down to 89 percent lol.

Like you said different opinions are not only a good thing , they are needed . Everyone needs to be challenged regardless if you know little or alot . As Shane said, we are trying to be more open when it comes to posting. Sure there is banter in this thread but truthfully, there isn't much going on right now . If we were looking at a real threat we would obviously move or delete the banter posts .

I also am of the belief that if someone says something 100 percent incorrect that there is nothing wrong with someone explaining that they are incorrect. Goes back to trying to learn . That is the issue with other boards, people who think they " know everything " pop in say that someone is wrong but then they don't take the time to try and explain to or help that person . The high horse attitude. That attitude is ------ and helps no one.

We want members to be able to say whatever , suggest whatever and to help eachother. Not attack , say people are wrong and have that I know more than you attitude

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Really, really good post! +1
 
Storm5 said:
Thanks . To piggyback your don't let it ruin you statement . Look, there is nothing wrong with being wrong . It's part of it. There isn't a person out there that gets it right 100 percent of the time. Hell I'm wrong 90 percent of the time and have been for years. That's why I keep coming back. trying to learn from others to at least get down to 89 percent lol.

Like you said different opinions are not only a good thing , they are needed . Everyone needs to be challenged regardless if you know little or alot . As Shane said, we are trying to be more open when it comes to posting. Sure there is banter in this thread but truthfully, there isn't much going on right now . If we were looking at a real threat we would obviously move or delete the banter posts .

I also am of the belief that if someone says something 100 percent incorrect that there is nothing wrong with someone explaining that they are incorrect. Goes back to trying to learn . That is the issue with other boards, people who think they " know everything " pop in say that someone is wrong but then they don't take the time to try and explain to or help that person . The high horse attitude. That attitude is ------ and helps no one.

We want members to be able to say whatever , suggest whatever and to help eachother. Not attack , say people are wrong and have that I know more than you attitude

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
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Do you need a job as an advocate? I may have one .. LOL (but not) So damn well said!
 
Believe it or not, this run could little interesting for NC
 
18z GFS has the PV/northern energy more SW....I wish the ULL would stay together just a little longer, would do a lot for NC if that was the case


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Jon said:
18z GFS has the PV/northern energy more SW....I wish the ULL would stay together just a little longer, would do a lot for NC if that was the case


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No kidding that run is real close for us.

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there's a speck of snow north east Ga. Maybe this could be a trend for that area
 
I've always seen NC/SC area trending better for this event. Still time for improvement for that area. Very close call
 
18z NAM vs 18z GFS....let's hope the GFS is right about the PV energy and the NAM is right about the ULL not getting sheared out. As long as the models are this far apart in specifics NC still has a chance
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This run was actually better, kept it self together more. My area almost no chance, area to the east better chance.
 
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this can actually get little better for north Bama, moisture shield further north. Little colder
 
Storm5 said:
man that was a close run for our NC folks. if I lived there I sure wouldn't give up yet

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As I have stated before...Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades...LOL! Just ask the #falcons. LOL


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I'm not really feeling it, but I still think the Carolinas might have a shot at a decent little event as long as we don't see an early phase (like what the Euro suggests). Who knows who though. Whoever gets that stripe of snow might see up to 3 inches outside the mountains.

Maybe there's a late phase but its either going to be early or no phase most likely.
 
Still watching dates through 22nd-24th or so. This depends on timing and rather or not these two pieces will phase or not (this is not the 15th-16th system). It also depends on the tracks of systems. The GFS is trying to get something organized from the Gulf. If the track of low is further west and if that piece comes down from the NW just right, there could be a phase. The piece that's NW would bring the colder temps.
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Webberweather53 said:
They changed the dataset to Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 from version 3b late last year, but my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) which was part of my research I presented @ AMS this past January, integrates about 25 SST & reanalysis datasets, quality control, and is available in near real-time is also very likely to end up showing a NINA when I update it... It may take longer than usual because I need to add CERA-20C to my 25 member suite of datasets.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media...-new-20th-century-climate-reanalysis-complete

Aside from the actual ONI values, I've also provided monthly NINO 3.4 SST values, inter-dataset variance, and rankings going back to 1865.
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...nic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2017.txt

Here's the ENS ONI data broken down every 25 years...
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Per these tables, there have been 8 wk-mod Ninos following a wk Nina. In all 8 cases, ATL/much of SE had 1+ major stprms and 7 of the 8 were cold winters! So, here's to a weak to mod Nino next winter!
 
GaWx said:
Per these tables, there have been 8 wk-mod Ninos following a wk Nina. In all 8 cases, ATL/much of SE had 1+ major stprms and 7 of the 8 were cold winters! So, here's to a weak to mod Nino next winter!
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I need you to move your data set exactly 5 hours down I-75! LOL
 
GaWx said:
Per these tables, there have been 8 wk-mod Ninos following a wk Nina. In all 8 cases, ATL/much of SE had 1+ major stprms and 7 of the 8 were cold winters! So, here's to a weak to mod Nino next winter!
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Well Larry...I guess I'm all in for next winter if it is a weak to mod Niño...


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whatalife said:
Well Larry...I guess I'm all in for next winter if it is a weak to mod Niño...


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3 of those 8 wk to mod Nino's following wk Nina per Webber table were in top 10 coldest at ATL: 1904-5, 1939-40, 2009-10.

7 of 10 coldest ATL winters and 3 coldest were wk to mod Nino. But those following weak Nina seem to be the most promising for cold and wintry precip,
 
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GaWx said:
Just consider the current weak Nina winter as a potential sacrificial lamb to next winter in case it is a weak to mod Nino lol.
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been sacrificin' for a whole winter LOL
but I'll fatten up a calf for next ... and offer it to the gods of winter ... maybe :p
 
The only exception to the cold/wintry weak to moderate Nino following weak Nina per Webber's table: 1951-2, which was warm though still had a major winter storm at ATL late Feb. Well, 1951-2 DJF averaged +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. So, no wonder it was warm.
 
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