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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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What's the chance of the PV to come a little further south? Don't want it too far south, cause then it's suppression city.

For a good big snow, a storm and the PV need to have a convergence that way it will mostly be a snow event and not rain to snow. Right now the convergence is occurring north of here, over the Mid-Atlantic on the models.

I'd like to see some more ridgeing over the North Atlantic to help push the PV down some. If it trends further south and if there is a convergence with a storm system further south then sign me up. Right now, if we don't get the cold in here from the PV while a storm system is coming through then, I'm hoping we'll see that ULL produce some deep cold air.

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bouncycorn said:
Trends are going the "right" direction but I wouldn't say this is a great setup as of now. It's honestly just a disconnected shortwave and 50/50 wave. They don't interact plus there is no high pressure to our northwest. It'd take a pretty big change in setup for us to get enough cold air.


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who wouldn't take their chances with a piece of the PV sitting over the lakes ? Best looking setup all winter IMO





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man if only the para could be right with this look
fc1899ab78300cee02ecb3815c3eb598.jpg


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Jon said:
I agree Larry...the para looks amazing.

Look at the trends over the last 4 runs of the Para...the northern stream/PV setting up shop over the lakes, huge change. The para is incredibly close to a phase and I wouldn't be surprised to see that relatively soon given trends. Anytime you start showing me a look like this with a -NAO, sign me up. This is hands down the best look we've seen all winter, even though it's going to count on perfect timing, seldom do we get storms that don't unless it's overrunning.

h5DYhtE.gif
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Very nice look...


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Storm5 said:
who wouldn't take their chances with a piece of the PV sitting over the lakes ? Best looking setup all winter IMO





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I see why you'd say that and I kinda agree. But I don't know if it'll produce. The early January setup was arguably better but you didn't have the upper level support with that system. If we can get a high pressure a little further south in the plains, which there is definitely enough time for, we'll be in major business.

In terms of setups several days out, it doesn't get much better!


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bouncycorn said:
I see why you'd say that and I kinda agree. But I don't know if it'll produce. The early January setup was arguably better but you didn't have the upper level support with that system. If we can get a high pressure a little further south in the plains, which there is definitely enough time for, we'll be in major business.

In terms of setups several days out, it doesn't get much better!


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I agree. I guess the truth is , the only great setup is one the actually produces lol

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I'm going to have a video up before the 0z GFS run...I should have one up before then

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Fog rolling in for the third night in a row. Incredible how the weather has been inconsistently consistent. Maybe it will mean we get snow later on lol. Things look great and I think someone could score coming up if the pattern verifies.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Fog rolling in for the third night in a row. Incredible how the weather has been inconsistently consistent. Maybe it will mean we get snow later on lol. Things look great and I think someone could score coming up if the pattern verifies.
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The northeast will definitely score.
 
New video, in this video discussion, I talk about of what I want to see on the models in the coming days.

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