• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
Boy, looking at the GEFS gets me excited. I'm with ya Charlie, I'll take that also all day.
 
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 55s55 seconds ago
only twice in 40 years has the MJO pulled what is forecasted in Feb. GFS goes ballistic as it tries to sort it out.


Let's just hope snow cover spreads south more in the near future!!!

C4Ga5JDWAAEAi7b.jpg
 
Larry I know its in this thread but I'm lazy... what 2 years did the MJO go through P8 at a similar amplitude

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Larry I know its in this thread but I'm lazy... what 2 years did the MJO go through P8 at a similar amplitude

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Long strings (all 6+ days) with similar amp phase 8 in Feb: 1988 strongest. Then 1999. But keep in mind 1999 should be thrown out as an analog due to a +AO/+NAO. Then 1978 and 2006 were similarly strong to each other. Then 2010.

2017 is looking to be about as strong as 1988! 1978 was about as strong but in phase 7 when it was that strong rather than in phase 8.

1988: 2/21-29 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif

1978: 2/7-10 & 2/23-28 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197801.phase.90days.gif

2006: 2/4-9 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200601.phase.90days.gif

2010: 2/7-13 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201001.phase.90days.gif
 
Last edited:
MBell said:
Am I seeing flurries in North GA late Wednesday/Early Thursday? Meteo star data shows 0.03 of precip with temps in the mid 30s and 850s below 0?
Click to expand...
The GFS does indeed show a small area, but I think it is a one run deal. The NAM says they will be limited to the mountains with maybe one or two making it into non mountain areas.
 
MBell said:
Am I seeing flurries in North GA late Wednesday/Early Thursday? Meteo star data shows 0.03 of precip with temps in the mid 30s and 850s below 0?
Click to expand...
There could be a brief period of a few flurries and that's it.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
^Yeah, Bouncy, unfortunately as modeled the cold air isn't established as you implied before the storm moves over. The last several paras runs have had something similar. So, the para has had a string of runs with the low to the south of the operational GFS. The low has been in a near perfect spot for many well inland folks in the SE but none of the runs had the cold air in advance of the storm. My target for KATL to see snow based on historical maps is for them to have a thickness down to 546/850's below 0C. They generally don't need 540. The para has been showing around 552. So nada for now on the para runs. Get it down to 546 and we can talk snowstorm for ATL! Still plenty of time to get colder runs. The low slowing down may be a solution that would work out.
Click to expand...
I agree Larry...the para looks amazing.

Look at the trends over the last 4 runs of the Para...the northern stream/PV setting up shop over the lakes, huge change. The para is incredibly close to a phase and I wouldn't be surprised to see that relatively soon given trends. Anytime you start showing me a look like this with a -NAO, sign me up. This is hands down the best look we've seen all winter, even though it's going to count on perfect timing, seldom do we get storms that don't unless it's overrunning.

h5DYhtE.gif
 
Jon said:
I agree Larry...the para looks amazing.

Look at the trends over the last 4 runs of the Para...the northern stream/PV setting up shop over the lakes, huge change. The para is incredibly close to a phase and I wouldn't be surprised to see that relatively soon given trends. Anytime you start showing me a look like this with a -NAO, sign me up. This is hands down the best look we've seen all winter, even though it's going to count on perfect timing, seldom do we get storms that don't unless it's overrunning.

h5DYhtE.gif
Click to expand...
wow that looks great man . I'm with you 100 percent . Best look all winter hands down

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Trends are going the "right" direction but I wouldn't say this is a great setup as of now. It's honestly just a disconnected shortwave and 50/50 wave. They don't interact plus there is no high pressure to our northwest. It'd take a pretty big change in setup for us to get enough cold air.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top