Pattern February Discussion Part II

[JtSmarts]

Cool information, I'd never heard of that 1914 storm!

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, we don't want a strong El Nino cause that will mean cool, damp conditions rather than colder, wetter conditions. I remember one winter there was a strong El Nino and there wasn't much in the way of winter weather. That winter had a lot of days that were damp and cool but it wasn't really never cold with below normal temps. I forgot what winter that was. I'm thinking it was 06-07. I could be wrong.

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Even strong El Ninos aren't that bad.
Strong NINOs like 1888-89, 1896-97, 1930-31, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, & even 1982-83 were pretty good wintry wx wise in much of the SE & Carolinas, 1997-98 was a only a smidge too warm, but very close to being a huge winter down here, the NC mountains got smashed by a massive snowstorm in January 1998... There was at least one (or more) big dogs in all of these aforementioned winters. 2006-07 was a weak El Nino winter btw.

Here are a few examples from these winters, I have yet to complete the entire archive so I'm missing a few storms, including a few good ones in NC from January 1966.

1888-89
February 21-22 1889

Raleigh: 10"

Chapel Hill: 10.5"

Southern Pines: 11"

Asheboro: 8"

Charlotte: 8"

Wilmington: 2"

February 11 1889

Charlotte: 0.5"

Raleigh: 0.3"

Wilmington: 0.2"

1896-97






1930-31


1957-58


1972-73





1982-83

 

[SnowHusky]

Sooo does the gfs finally give in to the euro today

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That's the big question.

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[RollTide18]

How did the SE do so well in 10-11 without a Weak-Mod Nino?

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, we don't want a strong El Nino cause that will mean cool, damp conditions rather than colder, wetter conditions. I remember one winter there was a strong El Nino and there wasn't much in the way of winter weather. That winter had a lot of days that were damp and cool but it wasn't really never cold with below normal temps. I forgot what winter that was. I'm thinking it was 06-07. I could be wrong.

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I forgot to mention 1987-88, but that's another good strong El Nino example.

We actually had measurable snow here in central NC in early-mid November 1987.
Of course everyone is probably familiar w/ this bad boy in January 1988...

 

[SnowHusky]

Even strong El Ninos aren't that bad.
Strong NINOs like 1888-89, 1896-97, 1930-31, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, & even 1982-83 were pretty good wintry wx wise in much of the SE & Carolinas, 1997-98 was a only a smidge too warm, but very close to being a huge winter down here, the NC mountains got smashed by a massive snowstorm in January 1998... There was at least one (or more) big dogs in all of these aforementioned winters. 2006-07 was a weak El Nino winter btw.

Strong El Ninos aren't that bad, I agree, it depends on the teleconnections as well and timing of cold between weather systems.



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[Storm5]

Just signed on to find Webber holding early morning class on a Saturday . Awesome stuff

 

[pcbjr]

Just signed on to find Webber holding early morning class on a Saturday . Awesome stuff

See my post in Banter!

 

[GaWx]

I forgot to mention 1987-88, but that's another good strong El Nino example.

We actually had measurable snow here in central NC in early-mid November 1987.View attachment 97
Of course everyone is probably familiar w/ this bad boy in January 1988...
View attachment 98

To clarify the 4" at ATL: That was almost pure sleet. Liq equiv was 1.25"!! there was basically the equiv water content of a foot of snow!

 

[GaWx]

How did the SE do so well in 10-11 without a Weak-Mod Nino?

The SE doesn't need El Nino of any kind to do well. Nobody said that. There was strong -AO/-NAO first half of that winter.

 

[Webberweather53]

You can also add 1969-70 and 1976-7 to the frigid E Pac centered based weak Nino group. 1976-7 is still the coldest ATL winter on record!

Yep, and there were a few decent storms in those winters as well...

To clarify the 4" at ATL: That was almost pure sleet. Liq equiv was 1.25"!! there was basically the equiv water content of a foot of snow!

That's insane, but you think that's nuts 8" of pure sleet fell in Raleigh in February 1987 from this storm, liquid equivalent of 2 feet of snow!! I'd probably jump off a building if that happened lol. Although sleet is great and all, knowing how close I would have been to another March 1927, I would be really pissed

 

[RollTide18]

The SE doesn't need El Nino of any kind to do well. Nobody said that. There was strong -AO/-NAO first half of that winter.

I didn't say anyone here said that, I just used to think myself that you needed El Nino to have the best shot at Winter weather. Thanks.

 

[cd2play]

Someone needs to sell their soul to get one of these to work out

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But I don't want to go to hell.

 

[GaWx]

I didn't say anyone here said that, I just used to think myself that you needed El Nino to have the best shot at Winter weather. Thanks.

OK, I got you. No problem. That's the best way to put it.

Here's how I put it based on ATL:

1. Best shot at cold winter: weak to mod Nino (true for all of SE)
2. For ATL: best shot at above avg snow. Nino in general but with best chance actually if Nino strong
3. Best shot at major ZR or IP ATL: neutral negative like we were in 2013-4

 

[Webberweather53]

Check out this forecast from Childress, TX today. You can't make this make up. 96F to sleet in less than 36 HR. What in the world...

 

[Jon]

Well, if anyone still has hope, our ULL energy is now over California as of this morning. New data can influence the model runs later 18z/00z (maybe)...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Check out this forecast from Childress, TX today. You can't make this make up. 96F to sleet in less than 36 HR. What in the world...View attachment 99

I think I'd feel sick with that big of a temperature change, I already get occasional headaches with 15-20 degree sudden changes.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Some really good stuff in here this morning, I like reading about past weather events.

 

[GaWx]

I just realized that we officially just got a weak Nina:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Until I saw this, I didn't think we were going to have enough (5) trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 or colder to qualify for La nina. I was betting on neutral negative. That's why I was harping on neutral negative having had by far the largest # of major ZR's/IP's at ATL. Did they revise the trimonthlies colder recently?

 

[SnowHusky]

Check out this forecast from Childress, TX today. You can't make this make up. 96F to sleet in less than 36 HR. What in the world...View attachment 99

The ULL does produce some cold air over the Panhandle of TX but it loses it's cold layers as it shears and moves east.

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[RollTide18]

NAM has the ULL a bit more north than GFS

 

[pcbjr]

Some really good stuff in here this morning, I like reading about past weather events.

...and I like reading about weather and learning, which is a plate-full this AM ... and dadgumit, it's not getting my lawn done ... LOL

keep it up, folks, to my neighbors' possible chagrin

 

[Storm5]

this makes me sick knowing it's early February

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[Shawn]

Have gotten so many surprises historically with that lead finger of precip. Sucks it's too warm.

 

[Storm5]

shoot me now

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[whatalife]

shoot me now

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Bang


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[Webberweather53]

I just realized that we officially just got a weak Nina:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Until I saw this, I didn't think we were going to have enough (5) trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 or colder to qualify for La nina. I was betting on neutral negative. That's why I was harping on neutral negative having had by far the largest # of major ZR's at ATL. Did they revise the trimonthlies colder recently?

They changed the dataset to Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 from version 3b late last year, but my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) which was part of my research I presented @ AMS this past January, integrates about 25 SST & reanalysis datasets, quality control, and is available in near real-time is also very likely to end up showing a NINA when I update it... It may take longer than usual because I need to add CERA-20C to my 25 member suite of datasets.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media...-new-20th-century-climate-reanalysis-complete

Aside from the actual ONI values, I've also provided monthly NINO 3.4 SST values, inter-dataset variance, and rankings going back to 1865.
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weat...nic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-2017.txt

Here's the ENS ONI data broken down every 25 years...

 

[Jon]

Yep, the only chance we had with this one is the vortex dumping to the SE early since there was no HP in place we would have likely relied on some sort of phase, but that would have to be a huge vortex coming down as seen on previous model runs that worked out...the ULL was also spinning on the west coast as a 4-5 contour for a while. A phase also would put a lot of the SE out of the picture anyway. This is just entirely too fast and there's not much to watch anymore, given the model runs tonight stay the same...but I'm not purposefully going to be up for them, lol. Next!

 

[SD]

The model battle over the NE continues

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[WEATHERBOYROY]

this makes me sick knowing it's early February

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You gotta love the layout for I20 corridor! Just a few ticks stronger with the storm system 500mb down and everything changes!

 

[Shawn]

Yep, the only chance we had with this one is the vortex dumping to the SE early since there was no HP in place we would have likely relied on some sort of phase, but that would have to be a huge vortex coming down as seen on previous model runs that worked out...the ULL was also spinning on the west coast as a 4-5 contour for a while. A phase also would put a lot of the SE out of the picture anyway. This is just entirely too fast and there's not much to watch anymore, given the model runs tonight stay the same...but I'm not purposefully going to be up for them, lol. Next!

Yeah, the ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS that did have precip/good track were warm for the most part. We got a few good runs of the GFS nailing the northern fringes, and that's about it. That never even had ensemble support back then.

 

[GaWx]

I'm getting ready to write the 15th-16th system off. For one, it's not cold enough. 2) it's a weak disturbance, no enough QPF, even if there was snow, it would be light. Maybe a dusting up to 2". 3) it's a quick mover, the NS is helping to push this disturbance out quickly. Something will have to dramatically change for this to turn out to be a bigger event, which I have my doubts on that.

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What hurts is that the GFS new runs are much faster like the Euro had been earlier. They are all now ahead of any cold that was coming.

 

[Storm5]

I'm getting ready to write the 15th-16th system off. For one, it's not cold enough. 2) it's a weak disturbance, no enough QPF, even if there was snow, it would be light. Maybe a dusting up to 2". 3) it's a quick mover, the NS is helping to push this disturbance out quickly. Something will have to dramatically change for this to turn out to be a bigger event, which I have my doubts on that.

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lol 2 inches is average for most of the southeast . wouldn't call that light at all

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[pcbjr]

ol 2 inches is average for most of the southeast .

... would likely qualify as a blizzard of Biblical proportions down here ... LOL

 

[SnowHusky]

lol 2 inches is average for most of the southeast . wouldn't call that light at all

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Light to mod. snow is how I should've put it. Even if the models were showing 2" for some, it wouldn't be that much cause it would melt at first.

Edit: yes, 2" is average but that's not heavy snowfall. 4-6+" is heavy snowfall. I don't think we're going to see that kind of snow if there will snow from this system.

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[Storm5]

Light to mod. snow is how I should've put it. Even if the models were showing 2" for some, it wouldn't be that much cause it would melt at first.

Edit: yes, 2" is average but that's not heavy snowfall. 4-6+" is heavy snowfall. I don't think we're going to see that kind of snow if there will snow from this system.

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you could reach the yearly average with a burst of heavy snow with the right system. So 2 inches could result from heavy snow

people have the most unrealistic expectations during the winter . Sure everyone would like a big snow . but hell this is the southeast, snow is rare and not guaranteed. This isn't Boston . I'd be thrilled to death to get 2 inches of snow every winter. Truth is , that's not gonna happen . People always complain , " Boston will jackpot" well no s*** of course they will they average 44 inches a year. People in the southeast forget this isn't the northeast. Snow Expectations are ridiculous and idiotic in southeast

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[pcbjr]

you could reach the yearly average with a burst of heavy snow with the right system. So 2 inches could result from heavy snow

people have the most unrealistic expectations during the winter . Sure everyone would like a big snow . but hell this is the southeast, snow is rare and not guaranteed. This isn't Boston . I'd be thrilled to death to get 2 inches of snow every winter. Truth is , that's not gonna happen . People always complain , " Boston will jackpot" well no s*** of course they will they average 44 inches a year. People in the southeast forget this isn't the northeast. Snow Expectations are ridiculous and idiotic in southeast

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I may have an opening for an advocate in my office ...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Since we can't get good blocking this winter, I hope we get good blocking this summer to prevent it from really being ridiculously hot. If it could stay around 85-90, that'd be perfect compared to what can happen.

 

[pcbjr]

Since we can't get good blocking this winter, I hope we get good blocking this summer to prevent it from really being ridiculously hot. If it could stay around 85-90, that'd be perfect compared to what can happen.

so long as it's not blocking and keeping in place the heat migrating from Texas ... LOL

 

[BHS1975]

Since we can't get good blocking this winter, I hope we get good blocking this summer to prevent it from really being ridiculously hot. If it could stay around 85-90, that'd be perfect compared to what can happen.

Yeah beat down the bermuda ridge. The humidity was awful last year.


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