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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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^Yeah, Bouncy, unfortunately as modeled the cold air isn't established as you implied before the storm moves over. The last several paras runs have had something similar. So, the para has had a string of runs with the low to the south of the operational GFS. The low has been in a near perfect spot for many well inland folks in the SE but none of the runs had the cold air in advance of the storm. My target for KATL to see snow based on historical maps is for them to have a thickness down to 546/850's below 0C. They generally don't need 540. The para has been showing around 552. So nada for now on the para runs. Get it down to 546 and we can talk snowstorm for ATL! Still plenty of time to get colder runs. The low slowing down may be a solution that would work out.
 
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bouncycorn said:
Gfs para has a really classic miller A system for hour 210. It's suppressed and the high pressure doesn't slide South enough but overall it's very classic. Strong hp moving south from North Dakota and a strong low in the gulf.
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Looks a lot like March should - not mid-Feb ... :(
I gotta get out of this office and study some weather - sanity and all ... LOL
 
SoutheastRidge said:
You are 23 years old and youve seen plenty of March snows ? Either you live up North or you have been dreaming a lot. I don't recall any good snows in March since 1993. The one in 2009 did produce in some areas though
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I agree. I am 32 and the only March Snow I can remember is 1993. I have seen flurries quite a few times in March and even a time or two in April, but nothing that would amount to anything. Just token flurries. But I also lived in California 2008-2013...so I am not sure what happened those years for my area of North GA.
 
I can see the polar vortex on this run (didn't look at the 500 MB maps on 12z until later and I did spot it on that run) but it will likely set up too late again for anything to be seen outside of a possible ULL setup, and the bowling ball look has been trending to where its less defined by the run.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I can see the polar vortex on this run (didn't look at the 500 MB maps on 12z until later and I did spot it on that run) but it will likely set up too late again for anything to be seen outside of a possible ULL setup, and the bowling ball look has been trending to where its less defined by the run.
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I'd much rather have a Miller A sliding across the northern Gulf rather than a bowling ball moving across land for the best shot based on history. Almost all of the biggest ATL snowstorms were from Miller A's going across the northern Gulf or near the Gulf coast. 3/1/2009 was a rare exception.
If we can't get low level cold air established in advance, a cold enough bowling ball may be the only chance at something major from this. But we still have a very long way to go.
 
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Pretty good agreement other than timing.

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That's going to be a bomb in the NE when the cutoff phases with that moving into the northern lakes

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The ULL is producing it's own cold air some. There is some 0c or below readings at 850 in some spots but surface temps are still an issue. Still worth bare watching since it is producing some cold air in the upper levels. We may not be able to determine if snow will rather fall or not un till the "nowcasting" time.

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So nothing...nothing at all is gonna play out for SE looks like 3rd straight year of "Average winter weather" which is not the reason we are watching these models :( Maybe next year
 
It was a colder run for that system, maybe good trends
 
I thought for a moment that the PV was attracting this shortwave, but instead the PV just pushed it out to sea.
 
Will be interesting to see if the gfs can cook anything up with the vortex in the NE departing and that energy moving in from the pacific

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malak05 said:
which is not the reason we are watching these models
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Please do not take this in any way negative --
Watching models is not the end game - models are a tool like indices and, frankly, need to be "blended" with other resources. That's why I don't post maps too often - I get afraid someone may take them as "gospel" and not pay attention to the bigger picture
(For example - I can find one map that looks "great" or "bad" and roll it 48 -72 hours out and get a whole different read - the trend and "staying power" are more instructive (I think)) ...
But - off my soapbox now ...
 
If we could only get back the extreme (though transient) Greenland block that the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs showed. The 12Z and 18Z Greenland blocks were not that impressive as max heights aren't nearly as high.
 
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