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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Aleksey Sceviour said:
Winter is not over, we will get an event before it's over, I guarantee it! Sit back and enjoy the ride because it's coming once everyone writes it off. I've seen plenty march snows so I'm not ruling that possibility out.
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You are 23 years old and youve seen plenty of March snows ? Either you live up North or you have been dreaming a lot. I don't recall any good snows in March since 1993. The one in 2009 did produce in some areas though
 
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Storm5 said:
yep , that's why he is well respected. He explains everything and does not just drop two or three word responses . Now most of the time I'm having to scramble to do research because his knowledge is so extensive that a good portion of it goes in one eye bounces around the brain and gets rejected out the other side. Funny, one day last week i let my wife read one of his posts and she said " you understand that?" and I said " hell no , I was hoping maybe you could help " hahahaha

we should do a live show and let him just teach

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in all fairness to Webber, he is doing a great job here explaining his hypothesis, or point, in "laymans" terms and then drilling down into the tech, which is great!
 
pcbjr said:
in all fairness to Webber, he is doing a great job here explaining his hypothesis, or point, in "laymans" terms and then drilling down into the tech, which is great!
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hope my post didn't come across the wrong way. I agree 100 percent with what your saying . I was referring to a tweet he posted . But I agree, he has done a great job explaining things here and regardless if someone disagrees or agrees with him everyone can learn from his posts .

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SoutheastRidge said:
You are 23 years old and youve seen plenty of March snows ? Either you live up North or you have been dreaming a lot. I don't recall any good snows in March since 1993. The one in 2009 did produce in some areas though
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March of 2009 and 2010 gave me 3"+ both storms. Considering we're in the SE/Deep South, that's very rare, but some of our best storms have happened in March so that's why I'm not ruling that possibility out. I don't know a whole lot about weather, but I love studying it and it's one of my passions and following this forum has been very insightful and fun. I don't say much because I don't know as much as the pros on here, but I enjoy reading everyone's posts daily and tracking storms. Thanks to everyone for the knowledge and fun times I've gotten since I started tracking winter weather. Look forward to many more, and hopefully another one before this winter, or lack of, ends :)
 
I'm not crazy about the 12Z Euro. I like the 12Z GFS much better. I'm talking about the general upper level flow/pattern not a specific storm.
 
SSTs are warming some out in the Pacific, leaning towards of that El Nino, if the SSTs continue to warm, it will be active with storm systems coming along in the southern stream. We're already seeing that now on the models with two big possible storms during the 15th-16th and another one showing up during the 20th time period.

I'd expect a strong -NAO after the 16th-18th time period. Will the AO still be tanking? Possibly, we'll have to keep an eye on the blocking and see what leads up.

I don't understand why some forecasters try to predict things 2-3 months ahead of time. Yes, we can get an idea up but nothing is set in stone in the long range, even sometimes things aren't set in stone in the short range around here for winter weather.

Storm system changes the heights all the time, cause storm system's are changing track in the long range all the time. One thing leads to another, another leads to another....chain reaction.

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Storm5 said:
hope my post didn't come across the wrong way. I agree 100 percent with what your saying . I was referring to a tweet he posted . But I agree, he has done a great job explaining things here and regardless if someone disagrees or agrees with him everyone can learn from his posts .

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no - not at all - I was echoing you and adding to it.
 
Real weather weenie, A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. Weenies often inhabit internet message boards and issue "wishcasts" with anecdotes and pseudoscience. While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecsst, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bitttercasts" which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. Lol, WOW.
 
accu35 said:
Real weather weenie, A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. Weenies often inhabit internet message boards and issue "wishcasts" with anecdotes and pseudoscience. While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecsst, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bitttercasts" which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. Lol, WOW.
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are we adding this to a definition section someplace LOL
good summary!
 
accu35 said:
Real weather weenie, A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. Weenies often inhabit internet message boards and issue "wishcasts" with anecdotes and pseudoscience. While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecsst, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bitttercasts" which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. Lol, WOW.
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Not quite sure what happened to get the definition to be defined, but yep, that describes a weenie perfectly.
pcbjr said:
are we adding this to a definition section someplace LOL
good summary!
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We should!
Aside from that, the 12Z GFS seems a bit ULL happy, showing another one out in fantasy land. Is it common in this upcoming pattern to get ULLs or is it just the GFS being itself?
 
12z euro op
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12z EPS
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pcbjr said:
are we adding this to a definition section someplace LOL
good summary!
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Thanks, I found it very interesting to post. Sadly, but true their are ppl who fit this category lol.
 
That weather weenie definition is a good definition. On these weather forums, you're always going to see weather weenies posting things. It's something that you'll have to deal with. Anyway, going back on topic.

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Gfs para has a really classic miller A system for hour 210. It's suppressed and the high pressure doesn't slide South enough but overall it's very classic. Strong hp moving south from North Dakota and a strong low in the gulf.
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3ca5c5eeea20d596f7e4b4eff4996622.jpg



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