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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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by the 19th there isn't any cold in the US .#marchwillsaveus
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The major EC storm showed up again on this run. H5 looks amazing!

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Get the track of low coming from southern FL and riding the coast with cold air blasting down...BINGO!

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that storm later in the gfs run is some kind of massive, it's warm, but boy is it massive.

maybe we get lucky and it trends colder, but if not, perhaps it's a future severe weather event?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
that storm later in the gfs run is some kind of massive, it's warm, but boy is it massive.

maybe we get lucky and it trends colder, but if not, perhaps it's a future severe weather event?
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Yeah webber has been all over the pattern around the 20th. It's starting to look more and more severe like

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The system is done if you're wanting Wintry. Sorry.

Lets get into 70F + for the rest of Winter/into early Spring and be happy. when I changed my avatar, I meant it. Spring is here.
 
pcbjr said:
Webb - in all seriousness here - given the deep Pac tropics we've been seeing, and despite all of the relatively good teleconnections we've seen off and on this winter (and really generally "good" the next week to 10 days), what if the AO and NAO and EPO were positive, the PNA negative - all in all just the opposite of a "textbook" cold, could the whole thing work in "reverse" and actually cause cold in the SE? I hope this makes sense - if not, PM me and we'll get into it deeper, but this is right up your alley! Phil
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Yeah, it makes sense, but keep in mind these teleconnections are descriptors not necessarily forcings upon the ambient pattern. Teleconnections such as the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO, WPO, etc. were created in an attempt to provide a more simple description of the myriad of coupled, extremely complex, non-linear forcing-feedback-responses in the ocean-atmosphere system, otherwise it would be fairly difficult to glean much useful information from looking blankly at a weather map, satellite picture, etc, however they also have their pitfalls especially if they're misrepresented... Although the canonical tropical-extratropical teleconnections are changing due to low frequency Hadley Cell expansion, the classical relationships still largely hold up imo. Wrt if we had a +AO/+NAO/-PNA/+EPO during a non-NINO February, we would be more likely to be above normal, but that's far from guaranteed considering that even a collection of teleconnections still lend an incomplete description of the overall pattern because they inherently constitute only the primary modes of variability, sometimes the expression of less significant and relatively more rare, subordinate modes dominates the picture...

Now, of the years that featured a +AO/+NAO/-PNA/+EPO in February, 1910, 1937, & 1967 were at or below normal here in the SE US, with February 1967 producing a large snowstorm over east-central NC on February 9th-10th.
cd152.7.52.63.40.14.34.47.prcp.png
cd152.7.52.63.40.14.44.9.prcp.png
cd152.7.52.63.40.14.46.53.prcp.png

February 9-10 1967 NC Snowmap.png


Here's a February teleconnection snowfall table I made for Raleigh (1895-present), teleconnection combinations that result in a snowfall anomaly that's greater (less) than + (-) 1 standard deviation from the rest of the values in the table are denoted in blue (red).
Interestingly, the WPO is liable to have the largest impact on snowfall in RDU, and this is evidenced by the fact that the WPO holds the highest and lowest index averages for monthly snowfall. Another intriguing aspect from this is that I found no change between a -AO and +AO, a -WPO coupled with a +AO and/or -PNA is actually favorable for snow, and a -AO/+NAO is the least favorable teleconnection configuration for snowfall in RDU. This actually makes sense because a -AO/+NAO combination is often indicative of cold air draining away from North America and into Eurasia instead...

RDU Snowfall Teleconnection Table Feb.png
 
Shawn said:
The system is done if you're wanting Wintry. Sorry.

Lets get into 70F + for the rest of Winter/into early Spring and be happy. when I changed my avatar, I meant it. Spring is here.
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I'm waving the white flag, no need to get false hope for a 10 day storm at this point, besides after this mess of a winter, I'm ready for spring. Just try again in December.
 
Lol, the canadian brings what appears to be a hybrid, shallow warm core subtropical cyclone out of the southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan near the end of its run into the SE US. Ugh, it's too early for hurricane season but tbh we probably have a better chance w/ a hurricane in the winter than snow at this rate..
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, it makes sense, but keep in mind these teleconnections are descriptors not necessarily forcings upon the ambient pattern. Teleconnections such as the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO, WPO, etc. were created in an attempt to provide a more simple description of the myriad of coupled, extremely complex, non-linear forcing-feedback-responses in the ocean-atmosphere system, otherwise it would be fairly difficult to glean much useful information from looking blankly at a weather map, satellite picture, etc, however they also have their pitfalls especially if they're misrepresented... Although the canonical tropical-extratropical teleconnections are changing due to low frequency Hadley Cell expansion, the classical relationships still largely hold up imo. Wrt if we had a +AO/+NAO/-PNA/+EPO during a non-NINO February, we would be more likely to be above normal, but that's far from guaranteed considering that even a collection of teleconnections still lend an incomplete description of the overall pattern because they inherently constitute only the primary modes of variability, sometimes the expression of less significant and relatively more rare, subordinate modes dominates the picture...

Now, of the years that featured a +AO/+NAO/-PNA/+EPO in February, 1910, 1937, & 1967 were at or below normal here in the SE US, with February 1967 producing a large snowstorm over east-central NC on February 9th-10th.
View attachment 78
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View attachment 80

View attachment 81


Here's a February teleconnection snowfall table I made for Raleigh (1895-present), teleconnection combinations that result in a snowfall anomaly that's greater (less) than + (-) 1 standard deviation from the rest of the values in the table are denoted in blue (red).
Interestingly, the WPO is liable to have the largest impact on snowfall in RDU, and this is evidenced by the fact that the WPO holds the highest and lowest index averages for monthly snowfall. Another intriguing aspect from this is that I found no change between a -AO and +AO, a -WPO coupled with a +AO and/or -PNA is actually favorable for snow, and a -AO/+NAO is the least favorable teleconnection configuration for snowfall in RDU. This actually makes sense because a -AO/+NAO combination is often indicative of cold air draining away from North America and into Eurasia instead...

View attachment 77
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Eric,
Great stuff! I had just done a study of the PNA and EPO on days when ATL was getting major SN/IP since 1948. I found 16 of them. The avg. daily PNA was +0.4 (median +0.7) while the avg EPO was in the -30's. I posted this recently. I was next going to do AO & NAO.

Some time back I did find that several big RDU SN were when the NAO &/or AO were suprisingly + (like 1973 & 1988) though I didn't do a thorough analysis to see what the average AO/NAO was for all major SN there.
 
RollTide18 said:
I'm waving the white flag, no need to get false hope for a 10 day storm at this point, besides after this mess of a winter, I'm ready for spring. Just try again in December.
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Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
 
MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
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So we just cancel next winter before this crappy winter is over with...Sounds smart to me...


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So, the Euro is still showing the track of low further north while the track of low is about 50 miles south on the GFS. The models should start to come into more of an agreement any day now. This winter, models have very little skill beyond 4 days.

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MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
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Good! The worst drought areas are still in moderate drought and have very low soil moisture! So we need a good wet and snowy Nino! Looks likely at this point!
 
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
 
accu35 said:
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
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Working off makes most people a little rude.
 
accu35 said:
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
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Sorry about that, I didn't mean to sound extremely negative or mad, but I mean we all want snow, but reality is that Montgomery probably won't see anymore Winter Weather this winter, but we'll see. Doesn't really hurt my feelings if we don't, I went from 2003-2007 without seeing any snow so I'll live lmao
 
accu35 said:
Good morning, just worked off, so forgive me if I sound rudeish. Sure this pattern sucks and there's no wintry weather insite in the models as of now, but I wouldn't give up yet because you never know what kind of bone between here and March will throw at ya. So much negative feedback on here, lol. I love all types of westher, winter being my favorite, so let's enjoy what weather we do get, and be happy.
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Kind of like "Support your team, win or lose".... Right? :)
 
MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
Click to expand...

Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...
cd152.7.52.63.41.7.12.41.prcp.png

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC
January 12-14 1912 NC snowmap.png

February 10-12 1912 NC snowmap.png

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
NC-SC Snowmap Feb 25-26 1914.jpg
February 24-26 1914 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...
View attachment 82

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC
View attachment 83

View attachment 84

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
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THIS^^^

Great stuff Eric...I'll take my chances w/an El Niño any winter...


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MichaelJ said:
Don't think you want to count on next winter to bring you any glory. VERY preliminary long range pac temps are indicating a weak to moderate El Nino setting up right at the coast of S America which is seldom if ever good for winter in the East or South USA.
Click to expand...

I'd gladly accept a weak to mod Nino. Actually, a weak to moderate one overall would give the best chance at a cold SE winter. 09-10 was very cold moderate. 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7 & 77-78 were all very cold weak to low end mod. Of those, 1884-5, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1939-40, 1963-4, & 2009-10 were all also very wintry. Also, 1977-8 had a big Feb winter storm in much of NC.

Edit: Nothing beats a weak to moderate Nino with -NAO and +PDO for cold chances.

One prediction I'll go ahead and make, regardless of ENSO, is that there will be many going for a cold and snowy E US winter just because that's what they do.
 
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GaWx said:
I'd gladly accept a weak to mod Nino. Actually, a weak to moderate one overall would give the best chance at a cold SE winter. 09-10 was very cold moderate. 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1939-40, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7 & 77-78 were all very cold weak to low end mod. Of those, 1884-5, 1904-5, 1911-2, 1939-40, 1963-4, & 2009-10 were all also very wintry. Also, 1977-8 had a big Feb winter storm in much of NC.

One prediction I'll go ahead and make, regardless of ENSO, is that there will be many going for a cold and snowy E US winter just because that's what they do.
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Larry, I know couple of forecasters off the top of my head that will do just that. They also busted badly over the last couple of winters.


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Yeah, we don't want a strong El Nino cause that will mean cool, damp conditions rather than colder, wetter conditions. I remember one winter there was a strong El Nino and there wasn't much in the way of winter weather. That winter had a lot of days that were damp and cool but it wasn't really never cold with below normal temps. I forgot what winter that was. I'm thinking it was 06-07. I could be wrong.

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Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
Click to expand...

You can also add 1969-70 and 1976-7 to the frigid E Pac centered based weak Nino group. 1976-7 is still the coldest ATL winter on record!
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what are you talking about? It's certainly not wise to assume anything about equatorial pacific SST gradients based on climate models alone, there's a significant relationship between El Nino intensity and placement, (with weaker events having a higher propensity to be focused in the CP & vis versa) and an El Nino in general is a good start for the SE US. Although there's some uncertainty in the SST reconstructions esp before 1950, central pacific El Ninos have become more common in the last several decades due in part to AGW & some contribution from natural forcing. However the last weak-moderate El Nino that was based in the EP occurred in 1939-40, between 1890 and 1940 5 EP weak-moderate events occurred while virtually none have happened since, practically all weak-moderate El Ninos have been focused in the central pacific.

These are the only 5 east pacific weak-moderate El Ninos, again note the last one transpired during World War II...
View attachment 82

These aforementioned winters didn't suck either, there are a lot of big events from these years, esp. in NC.

1911-12 featured back-to-back 1 foot+ snows in Robeson and Bladen counties in SE NC
View attachment 83

View attachment 84

1913-14 produced a very large snowstorm in February over the Carolinas, dumping 12-15" of snow from the midlands of SC thru central NC. Society Hill, SC just north of Florence, SC recorded 18" in this storm and February 1914 was the benchmark storm in the midlands of SC until February 1973...
View attachment 87
View attachment 86
Click to expand...
Someone needs to sell their soul to get one of these to work out

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