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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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the eps does not really support the ops huge phase storm. I actually think the gefs is gonna win out with a suppressed mess but we will see

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Moisture south, but around Mid 30's through here and cooling. Of course we'd likely be able to get snow out of it.. if we get the moisture in CAE:

gfs_T850_us_23.png


This favors a good CAE/I-20 storm.
 
whatalife said:
Yep and that sucks b/c you and I know how this will workout in the end for us...LOL


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It's perfect climo for us. Timing and precip issues. But if this solution verifies and the wave isn't sheared into CRAP, we have a chance at a good event here. Just can't get excited with no GEFS support of actual snow vs rain.
 
I know alot of us is not feeling this "storm" but what you have to watch out for is that moisture sheild creeping up, if that were to happen places in the upper south would do good with snow
 
Shawn said:
It's perfect climo for us. Timing and precip issues. But if this solution verifies and the wave isn't sheared into CRAP, we have a chance at a good event here. Just can't get excited with no GEFS support of actual snow vs rain.
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I agree and Charlie may be right w/a suppressed system verifying but we'll see...


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The indices don't really support there being a monster storm in the NE but then again, this winter has done everything but go with climo.
 
accu35 said:
I know alot of us is not feeling this "storm" but what you have to watch out for is that moisture sheild creeping up, if that were to happen places in the upper south would do good with snow
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Where are you from? I'm in NE GA, this event may turn out good for me...if there will be an event.

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There's a lot of factors to consider with this system. A lot revolve around just timing. Then add all the energy flying around to it. While this might not end up being a massive storm for some, there are signs that it can pull a rabbit out of it's hat for a few lucky areas.

We won't be close to knowing the likely outcome for 3 days or so. Even then, will still have to keep an eye on it.
 
The 12z GFS Para doesn't get torn apart until later but it has what I'm afraid of, a good climo track going to waste because there simply isn't enough cold air.
 
SnowHusky said:
Where are you from? I'm in NE GA, this event may turn out good for me...if there will be an event.

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Well I'm from South West Bama, but I was really speaking upper south up towards your way
 
Storm5 said:
12z eps horrible for the SE
acb3a6aed14d10655b7be35fff5dd4f8.jpg
5803bdc36612ebb4b813213b3380ef6b.jpg


12z gefs much further south. one will bust
5ca051e6c963acf44387a90d5436d248.jpg


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one will bust, but i'm praying the L slides south even a bit from what the GEFS shows - and it could and if it does ... BOOM (of some relative form or other - in a nice way)
 
There are quite a few differences between the Euro and GFS across the entire US that lead to a much different end result. The Euro has a much more north south ridge in the Rockies, the north east energy is well farther west and slower. These 2 factors alone allow a more SW flow and give you amplification along the east coast.
Just for reference the Euro is 989 over eastern NC while the GFS is 1008 out in the SW Atlantic

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Last few runs haven't been very encouraging. The 70's this weekend will at least get our minds off this lackluster winter.


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NorthGaWinter4 said:
For you to be following winter weather in Florida it might be a problem! But we are glad to have ya
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OHH Pa Sha
Like I said before -- it's all fun (or something like that) LOL

No prob BTW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now the big dilemma - is it Las Margaritas or Chop Stix

Weather ain't everything ......
 
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ATLwxfan said:
Last few runs haven't been very encouraging. The 70's this weekend will at least get our minds off this lackluster winter.


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Today hasn't been that great for runs for sure, but I got a feeling tomorrow's runs will be better, don't shoot me guys, just a feeling.
 
pcbjr said:
OHH Pa Sha
Like I said before -- it's all fun (or something like that) LOL

No prob BTW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now the big dilemma - is it Las Margaritas or Chop Stix

Weather ain't everything ......
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only if it's a winter storm, LOL
 
Man GEFS is in a war with the EPS with low placement. This 18z GEFS might even be further south with it's cluster/slower.
 
Shawn said:
Man GEFS is in a war with the EPS with low placement. This 18z GEFS might even be further south with it's cluster/slower.
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this time of year and with this set up - I'm rootin' for as far south as it can dig on models - more now, less warm movement north later on
 
Like I said, its the Euro suite vs indices. While chances are the GFS is likely wrong with this much suppression, the indices don't really support there being a storm that is that massive in the northeast. Maybe a storm, but not a massive one.
 
Shawn said:
Man GEFS is in a war with the EPS with low placement. This 18z GEFS might even be further south with it's cluster/slower.
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pcbjr said:
OHH Pa Sha
Like I said before -- it's all fun (or something like that) LOL

No prob BTW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now the big dilemma - is it Las Margaritas or Chop Stix

Weather ain't everything ......
Click to expand...
post-snow.jpg
well to bad this isn't 1977 freak snow in South FL. You'll love that
 
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