1. I talked to a pro met today and he said that even though we're headed toward MJO phase 8, Indonesian convection, which has been extra persistent this winter, is expected to linger, which may make the effects act more like phases 4-5 than phase 8. He was saying that earlier this winter there have been phase 7-8-1-2 that were warm in the E US because of this. I'm just passing this along. I hope he's wrong about the upcoming MJO phases 7-8, etc. One thing that's different now and upcoming is a strong negative AO (even after adjusting for GEFS -AO bias), which I pointed out to him. He doesn't seem to be thinking we'll get a strong -AO cold response. I honestly think he's off but he's the pro, not I.
I bet Eric Webb might find this met's MJO thoughts interesting. Also, I wonder what Shane thinks about this.
2. The PNA adjusted for GEFS slight -PNA bias is now projected to reach a whopping ~+2.0 2/15! There have been only 3 met winter days since 1950 with a +2.0+ PNA!!
3. The GEFS bias adjusted AO is now down to below -2.0 and is now not projected to peak til around when the PNA peaks at midmonth.
4. Today's GEFS NAO fcast is quite a bit less positive than recent days and is threatening to actually go negative around midmonth!
I bet Eric Webb might find this met's MJO thoughts interesting. Also, I wonder what Shane thinks about this.
2. The PNA adjusted for GEFS slight -PNA bias is now projected to reach a whopping ~+2.0 2/15! There have been only 3 met winter days since 1950 with a +2.0+ PNA!!
3. The GEFS bias adjusted AO is now down to below -2.0 and is now not projected to peak til around when the PNA peaks at midmonth.
4. Today's GEFS NAO fcast is quite a bit less positive than recent days and is threatening to actually go negative around midmonth!
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