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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Figured we'd see a decent north atlantic block show up at some pt w/ a formidable Pacific MJO pulse... Greenland-Baffin Bay block progressively growing stronger on the EPS. We're trending in the right direction, granted this pattern looks more favorable for the MA-NE US vs the SE US atm.
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packfan98 said:
I have a feeling that I'm ignoring one poster in particular that you are referring to. What's the stance on banning a poster like that? Just curious on how you will handle the trolls and pot-stirrers. Thanks!
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Truth is, everyone's opinion is welcome even if that means it's negative all the time . If everyone agreed every single time it would boring.

With that said , we have ways to discourage people from being obvious trolls. Yes we send them PMS and yes we will warn people . If people are clueless like bigstick was and ignore the PMS and warnings then yes we will ban them in a heart beat . But, we don't want to fall into the category of being like other places if you get my drift .

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Yeah, we'll definitely need to keep a close eye on the evolution of the tropical Pacific over the next several weeks in the wake of this MJO pulse... The thermocline already more suppressed than normal over the central Pacific, a decent WWB induced by the ongoing Pacific MJO burst would likely be enough to excite a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave...
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Storm5 said:
Truth is, everyone's opinion is welcome even if that means it's negative all the time . If everyone agreed every single time it would boring.

With that said , we have ways to discourage people from being obvious trolls. Yes we send them PMS and yes we will warn people . If people are clueless like bigstick was and ignore the PMS and warnings then yes we will ban them in a heart beat . But, we don't want to fall into the category of being like other places if you get my drift .

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Very well said and Thanks!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, we'll definitely need to keep a close eye on the evolution of the tropical Pacific over the next several weeks in the wake of this MJO pulse... The thermocline already more suppressed than normal over the central Pacific, a decent WWB induced by the ongoing Pacific MJO burst would likely be enough to excite a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave...
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Is that good for snow?
 
Storm5 said:
Truth is, everyone's opinion is welcome even if that means it's negative all the time . If everyone agreed every single time it would boring.

With that said , we have ways to discourage people from being obvious trolls. Yes we send them PMS and yes we will warn people . If people are clueless like bigstick was and ignore the PMS and warnings then yes we will ban them in a heart beat . But, we don't want to fall into the category of being like other places if you get my drift .
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Thanks for your reply. I'm sure it can be difficult at times to moderate. The biggest issue I've seen on several forums is that one or two people try to dominate every thread. They reply with one liners after every post that add nothing to the conversation. In my opinion, that is not respecting others or the spirit of the board. These threads should not become a person's personal twitter feed for their random thoughts. That's my opinion anyway. Thanks for everything you have done to get this forum off on the right foot!
 
Rain Cold said:
Is that good for snow?
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It usually takes a few months for an equatorial kelvin wave to cross the entire pacific basin once it's generated, therefore it's not likely to have a significant impact on this winter (if at all), but could have significant implications for the 2nd half of the upcoming spring, summer, hurricane season, and perhaps next winter. Given the obvious propensity for low solar activity, it would be something if we could get a central Pacific El Nino in concert w/ an easterly QBO next year...
 
If I don't start to see a south trend on that 15th-16th system, then I'm passing that system. I mean, there might be some winter weather at the very northern fringe of moisture and some back side light snow.

Since this is an ULL and there is some colder air to work with to the north and I'm going to keep an eye on the upper levels for that cold core. As we know, ULLs can bring surprises.

The 15th-16th system reminds me of the system we had when that severe weather was going on in south GA and FL. That LP was an ULL and it was a strong low. I'm also keeping an eye on for the 20th-23rd time frame.



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SnowHusky said:
If I don't start to see a south trend on that 15th-16th system, then I'm passing that system. I mean, there might be some winter weather at the very northern fringe of moisture and some back side light snow.

Since this is an ULL and there is some colder air to work with to the north and I'm going to keep an eye on the upper levels for that cold core. As we know, ULLs can bring surprises.

The 15th-16th system reminds me of the system we had when that severe weather was going on in south GA and FL. That LP was an ULL and it was a strong low. I'm also keeping an eye on for the 20th-23rd time frame.



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like the ole saying goes... upper level lows... are weather mans woes... hard to predict
 
It's too bad that there may be a better pattern setting up in the 2nd half of Feb. Too bad we couldn't get that in January or the 1st half of Feb. The deeper we get into Feb the more climo works against us here in GA. I've always said Feb 15 is the end of winter here in GA so we have 8 days to go.
 
Depending on how the blocking is to the north, 15/16 could be further south in the future but what really matters is where the ULL goes as long as it sets up. Since there isn't much cold air what is going to matter period is where it tracks.

I'm unimpressed as I don't like ULL setups due to my past but I'm going to continue to try to be unselfish and with the way this winter has been a ULL setting up is probably the best bet.
 
That system showing up 20th time period, the 0z EPS also has that as an ULL. The blocking is in better positions for something better to turn out with that system.

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SD said:
Not trying to poo poo the upper low as it could work out but to me it really has the look of an Archambault event
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A what ? I just looked up Archambault and this is what I came up with:
Archambault, is the largest music retailer in the province of Quebec, Canada, as well as a major retailer of books, DVDs, periodicals, musical instruments, sheet music, games, toys and gift ideas.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
A what ? I just looked up Archambault and this is what I came up with:
Archambault, is the largest music retailer in the province of Quebec, Canada, as well as a major retailer of books, DVDs, periodicals, musical instruments, sheet music, games, toys and gift ideas.
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"Results of the statistical analysis suggest that cool-season NE precipitation tends to be enhanced during positive-to-negative NAO and negative-to-positive PNA transitions, and suppressed during negative-to-positive NAO and positive-to-negative PNA transitions"
 
tennessee storm said:
the stronger this upper level can get... the better off we be... cause they create their own cold air source
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But the stronger it gets, unless their is blocking, the further north it will go. As long as something keeps it south, someone could score. Otherwise, severe weather is coming instead.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It usually takes a few months for an equatorial kelvin wave to cross the entire pacific basin once it's generated, therefore it's not likely to have a significant impact on this winter (if at all), but could have significant implications for the 2nd half of the upcoming spring, summer, hurricane season, and perhaps next winter. Given the obvious propensity for low solar activity, it would be something if we could get a central Pacific El Nino in concert w/ an easterly QBO next year...
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Thanks! You'd think we'd be in an easterly QBO phase next year, so I guess we have that going for us....
 
ForsythSnow said:
But the stronger it gets, unless their is blocking, the further north it will go. As long as something keeps it south, someone could score. Otherwise, severe weather is coming instead.
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Hmm, could anyone look and see how strong the 3/1/09 ULL was? Because I remember it moving SE that day to around Columbus and then moving NE
 
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