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Pattern February Discussion Part II
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Storm5
Member
00z cmc has the same idea m it's about 6 too slow with northern stream this run
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ATLwxfan
Member
The run to run variability is hilarious. Getting downtrodden over a torch is only good for about 6 hrs. After that you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.
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Storm5
Member
thing is this look that all globals have will hold in general . with the blocking in place the press will keep the system south. met said it earlier today this is a look that could favor a little south trend
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ATLwxfan
Member
Yes please.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
This idea is a good one if it were to come to fruition but it's like playing with a lottery ticket. With a ULL, sometimes you get pasted and sometimes you're under a WSW and not even see one flake.
I think 20-22 could be interesting (timing will change with it that far out). I don't want to get ahead of myself. Just putting that time frame on the table. The pattern we'll be going in, will allow more frequent cold blasts over the east.
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After the ULL goes by, it looks like to me it almost formed a 2nd low off the SE coast on 2/17.
Moral of the story of this run, the 0Z CMC, as well what indices continue to tell us: get plenty of sleep over the next week or so because you may need it for midmonth! And keep in mind that this is the tail end of the most active period for many in the SE per climo/history.
Moral of the story of this run, the 0Z CMC, as well what indices continue to tell us: get plenty of sleep over the next week or so because you may need it for midmonth! And keep in mind that this is the tail end of the most active period for many in the SE per climo/history.
accu35
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Nice post Larry, I hope this works out
Oh yeah, it's a bowling ball on 12z EPS. H7 has a -10c core and down at 850 is 0c with surface temps in the 40s/50s
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Storm5
Member
00z gefs is all in the 15th -17th with the general setup. Timing of the NS is key need it a little faster. good setup but it's all timing . Hopefully the NS isn't late.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As was the case in January, this ULL undercutting the SE Canada ridge will likely mark the onset of the Pacific jet break down and we'll probably see renewed anticyclonic wave breaking and upper level ridging attempt to dominate northwestern North America and the northeastern Pacific as we turn towards March (-EPO (& eventually another -WPO surge), and if the overall succession of this very redundant pattern progression this winter holds true yet again, any cold/snow is liable to remain transient here, and I expect this to remain the case at least until more definitive evidence arrives that suggests otherwise. I definitely would be more concerned about severe wx than wintry wx atm in the SE US...
olhausen
Member
I'd love to get excited but a week ago the gfs showed a monster storm that was going to happen this Thursday and we all know how that turned out. Oh well let's hope the euro follows suit and then we can all get excited.
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I'd love to get excited but a week ago the gfs showed a monster storm that was going to happen this Thursday and we all know how that turned out. Oh well let's hope the euro follows suit and then we can all get excited.
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