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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Phasing would usually mean a track further north, which wouldn't be good for most in the SE exept for those who are far enough north/mtns to benefit from the backside. Phasing is excellent for the NE US as we all know. I prefer the Euro slow down, allow more high pressure to the north, and track through the northern Gulf. Then again, I'm not speaking for metwannabe and others pretty far north.
 
GaWx said:
Phasing would usually mean a track further north, which wouldn't be good for most in the SE exept for those who are far enough north/mtns to benefit from the backside. Phasing is excellent for the NE US as we all know. I prefer the Euro slow down, allow more high pressure to the north, and track r
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phasing can work well for areas west of the apps as the low strengthens and pulls NE but it's all timing has to be perfect

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GaWx said:
Phasing would usually mean a track further north, which wouldn't be good for most in the SE exept for those who are far enough north/mtns to benefit from the backside. Phasing is excellent for the NE US as we all know. I prefer the Euro slow down, allow more high pressure to the north, and track through the northern Gulf.
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We are kinda screwed any way. It will remain suppressed I think without a bit of a phase. Problem is the phase has to be just right for say the NE gulf state counties and the NC Piedmont...not sure what I want, really.


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the euro just needs a bigger cold push out front and to be a little slower with the southern stream. it wasn't that far off from being something good especially for eastern tenn and western NC

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GaWx said:
Phasing would usually mean a track further north, which wouldn't be good for most in the SE exept for those who are far enough north/mtns to benefit from the backside. Phasing is excellent for the NE US as we all know. I prefer the Euro slow down, allow more high pressure to the north, and track through the northern Gulf. Then again, I'm not speaking for metwannabe and others pretty far north.
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You speaking for us, then? LOL
 
GaWx said:
Phasing would usually mean a track further north, which wouldn't be good for most in the SE exept for those who are far enough north/mtns to benefit from the backside. Phasing is excellent for the NE US as we all know. I prefer the Euro slow down, allow more high pressure to the north, and track through the northern Gulf. Then again, I'm not speaking for metwannabe and others pretty far north.
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If this wasn't 2016-2017, I would agree, but the suppression is playing hand and hand with the cold source that we do have. If/when this goes north, we can wave bye bye to the cold and even if it's a good climo track, it's just going to be all rain in AL/GA/SC. Maybe a stripe of snow at the top of the precip shield, but not a widespread storm.

In different years, like maybe even 2015, a typical climo track would help but there's not enough snowpack.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If this wasn't 2016-2017, I would agree, but the suppression is playing hand and hand with the cold source that we do have. If/when this goes north, we can wave bye bye to the cold and even if it's a good climo track, it's just going to be all rain in AL/GA/SC. Maybe a stripe of snow at the top of the precip shield, but not a widespread storm.

In different years, like maybe even 2015, a typical climo track would help but there's not enough snowpack.
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Dad-blasted Indonesian convection is killing our winter per a pro met. :(
So, let's go kill the Indonesian convection.
 
NCSNOW said:
Neither is making the front ends of 1&1: :cool: How bout em?
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With that phase on the Euro, there could be some interesting EPS member. I have a feeling that everything is going to be too warm though. The eye of the needle seems to small for this setup with so little cold air around.
 
I don't think the track of low will be that far north that's on the 12z Euro. There are more models winning over the Euro with the track of low. There would be a phase if the low would slow down some just like what Larry was saying.

If there was a phase, I think it would occur over SC or just off of the SE coast. If this were to occur, E TN, NE GA, E GA, SC and NC would do good with snow. West of the APPs won't see in much in the way of snowfall. It depends all on the timing!

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The 12Z EPS mean is supporting the further north track of the 12Z Euro and the NE blizzard.
 
If you're rooting for a phase and you're outside of the mountains or west, you want a late phase. Unfortunately, they are not the norm lately. It might be better to root for the strong, suppressed ULL solution. If only rooting mattered anyway lol....
 
SnowHusky said:
I don't think the track of low will be that far north that's on the 12z Euro. There are more models winning over the Euro with the track of low. There would be a phase if the low would slow down some just like what Larry was saying.

If there was a phase, I think it would occur over SC or just off of the SE coast. If this were to occur, E TN, NE GA, E GA, SC and NC would do good with snow. West of the APPs won't see in much in the way of snowfall. It depends all on the timing!

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You and me both know that the best solution for our sake is the least likely one. I do think the GFS/CMC was getting close to phasing late but I think that late of a phase probably isn't happening. Either a phase isn't likely to happen or its going to happen too early.
 
whatalife said:
If that's the case I bet all other models start going in that direction soon...SMH!


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Lol, all those times shaking your head have spun the lows stronger and sent them north! You also know how the Euro has been this year, which leads me to think a middle ground is coming. If the middle ground occurs, we will have a proper path. Cold is the worry.
 
I don't feel like going back and comparing but it is feeling like to me the GFS is starting to follow the Euro on this storm. It's not stride for stride, but remember that 998 MB low off of the SE coast late last night on the Euro? There was a 999 MB low on the GFS then at 12z today.

The Euro hasn't been as good this year though so perhaps we see another situation like early January though.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, all those times shaking your head have spun the lows stronger and sent them north! You also know how the Euro has been this year, which leads me to think a middle ground is coming. If the middle ground occurs, we will have a proper path. Cold is the worry.
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Yes, I'm still going with the middle ground track. The cold will be an issue west of the APPs but maybe not across the mountains and east of the APPs.

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Shawn said:
Euro will win.
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Lol, when has it won that well in predicting storms?
SnowHusky said:
Yes, I'm still going with the middle ground track. The cold will be an issue west of the APPs but maybe not across the mountains and east of the APPs.

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I am not entirely set on cold air. Too many different solutions right now, but as we move closer, we should know where the cold will be and if it will phase or not.
 
That's all she wrote. Virtually every member of the EPS is empty outside the mountains for snow. Now maybe we can talk about the future threats.
 
whatalife said:
If that's the case I bet all other models start going in that direction soon...SMH!


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Yeah, I don't like the more northerly track at all of the 12Z Euro (supported by the 12Z EPS and the 12Z JMA fwiw) vs 0Z Euro. I have been saying that with the extreme +PNA along with the strong -AO that I didn't think the typical N/NW trend of the GFS would necessarily occur. I'm still not convinced that the actual track won't be suppressed and will be NW of the GFS tracks. I would like to remind folks that today's 0Z Euro Gulf coast track was the only one that was nearly that far south as the prior 7 or so runs had a low much further north well inland in the SE US. So, today's 0Z Euro was a southern outlier vs its prior runs. Today's 12Z run was getting back to its norm of the last few days so to speak. It isn't as if the Euro is trending north. That tells me that despite 12Z EPS support, that perhaps the 0Z Euro further south run is a sign that it will go back south on later runs.
 
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