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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Per the Euro weekly maps I see, the best setup and coldest week in absolutes (not anomalies) at both two meters and at 850 mb was week 4 (2/27-3/5). During this week, there is a -NAO/-AO along with split flow providing the potential for a cold high to pass by to the north while decent moisture comes from the WSW and overruns any potential low level cold air that can make it down. Precip. is near normal, which is more than wet enough in late Feb/early Mar.

Caveats:
1. Week 4 isn't cold per se per my maps, which show near normal at both 2 meters and at 850, but there is a warm bias and the -AO/-NAO pattern would support the chance for cold.
2. The Euro weeklies keep showing a strong -AO/-NAO during weeks 4-6. I hope this isn't due to a bias, especially considering how elusive has been a sustained -NAO!
 
GaWx said:
Per the Euro weekly maps I see, the best setup and coldest week in absolutes (not anomalies) at both two meters and at 850 mb was week 4 (2/27-3/5). During this week, there is a -NAO/-AO along with split flow providing the potential for a cold high to pass by to the north while decent moisture comes from the WSW and overruns any potential low level cold air that can make it down. Precip. is near normal, which is more than wet enough in late Feb/early Mar.

Caveats:
1. Week 4 isn't cold per se per my maps, which show near normal at both 2 meters and at 850, but there is a warm bias and the -AO/-NAO pattern would support the chance for cold.
2. The Euro weeklies keep showing a strong -AO/-NAO during weeks 4-6. I hope this isn't due to a bias, especially considering how elusive has been a sustained -NAO!
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4 weeks from now, both Sav and G'ville will be in near summer mode :(
 
I'm looking over the 12z Euro EPS and that system showing up during the 15th-16th is an ULL that has a cold core. The only problem is surface temps. But, an ULL that has a cold core can cool the surface temps off rather quickly. It may change but that's what the 12z EPS run has from today. This could be a feature to watch for on future runs.

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pcbjr said:
4 weeks from now, both Sav and G'ville will be in near summer mode :(
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Yeah pretty much getting there lol. Per SAV history, the last few days in Feb. into the first week in March is the latest they can realistically get significant wintry precip though odds are very low regardless. I've found no more than about 4 of them going back well over 200 years. So, that has been no higher than about a once in 50 year occurrence for that period. They have a much higher chance for that to occur during the 2nd week in Feb. though even that has been only about a once in 20 year occurrence.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah pretty much getting there lol. Per SAV history, the last few days in Feb. into the first week in March is the latest they can realistically get significant wintry precip though odds are very low regardless. I've found no more than about 4 of them going back well over 200 years. So, that has been no higher than about a once in 50 year occurrence for that period. They have a much higher chance for that to occur during the 2nd week in Feb. though even that has been only about a once in 20 year occurrence.
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found this in here today - change it to your local - pretty good history
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx
 
and for laughs
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Wow at the 0Z GFS! Winter is not even close to being over if this run has the right idea. I do think the GFS does better than normal when the PNA is strong. That includes less of a cold bias because, if anything, it actually has tended to slightly underdo +PNA's.
 
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If the idea of a cold core low is true, while there will be people that get sore luck, that's going to put everyone in the game depending on where it tracks. Where it tracks over gets a good hit on this run.
 
GaWx said:
Wow at the 0Z GFS! Winter is not even close to being over if this run has the right idea. I do think the GFS does better than normal when the PNA is strong. That includes less of a cold bias because, I'd anything, it actually has slightly underdone +PNA's.
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wow your not kidding

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