• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
not even close. It's phase or bust.
80c585b1bf371de06ca7e5dc67a91d69.jpg
379b9a1d52f20866ab8d385f94669ceb.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Oh, there's precip again alright at the surface more north in our states, but since we don't have a big enough cold press...its rain! Just too bad that it hasn't been cold enough really anywhere in NA this winter...
 
^ Lol is that 50 at RDU? I thought we were trending colder here!
 
It's not that big of a mess, it's actually closer at phasing on this run and the track of low is still good.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Oh, there's precip again alright at the surface more north in our states, but since we don't have a big enough cold press...its rain! Just too bad that it hasn't been cold enough really anywhere in NA this winter...
Click to expand...
Except for out west, in the northeast, and in the Midwest in December !
 
We're back at a typical climo track already.

I think I underestimated the GFS, if we're back to this already after suppression, this is pretty much completely doomed with no phase. Without a cold mass that can be tapped into the end result of this is likely to end up being an inland runner.
 
Well I'll stay positive here.... it did track a little further north, precip shied further north.... up this way it was closer, in fact a nw trend might could work here.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We're back at a typical climo track already.

I think I underestimated the GFS, if we're back to this already after suppression, this is pretty much completely doomed with no phase. Without a cold mass that can be tapped into the end result of this is likely to end up being an inland runner.
Click to expand...

Actually looking back, it's close to a phase, closer than previous runs
 
It's going right to the Euro run of 12z and 0z. If thats the case then we need the nrn stream to come in a little slower and farther west
 
If this northern movement continues, then I can see places in the upper south going good
 
Yeah, we're actually trending in the right direction at 500mb, the canonical progressive/NE bias in the NS on the GFS is becoming evident as it's starting to slow down this disturbance attached to a robust PV swinging down out of SE Canada. To get this to phase and amplify in a hurry instead of being sent to the proverbial shredder and OTS, need to see the northern stream slow down more and be to the NW of the shortwave in the southern branch, and the GFS has been trending that way.
Unknown.gif
 
The only thing I don't like about this run, is that the deep cold air don't get in here until after the low is off the SE coast. If that's the case, we won't see much snow. That northern stream needs to tap in eariler. Other than that, not a bad run. It has been trending towards a phase.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, we're actually trending in the right direction at 500mb, the canonical progressive/NE bias in the NS on the GFS is becoming evident as it's starting to slow down this disturbance attached to a robust PV swinging down out of SE Canada. To get this to phase and amplify in a hurry instead of being sent to the proverbial shredder and OTS, need to see the northern stream slow down more and be to the NW of the shortwave in the southern branch, and the GFS has been trending that way.
Unknown.gif
Click to expand...
That's a fairly significant shift/trend in the NE......
 
It's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time" :D
 
Stormlover said:
It's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time" :D
Click to expand...
I like to compare past runs to look for trends. This 12z run was not in a mess IMO. This was a fairly good run! I think people are looking for that ULL to stay in fully intact, it's not going to stay fully intact. Without the phase, it's going to get sheard.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
hm, i think this is our little bugger / ukmet / no frames between 120-144

image.gif
 
Snowbird Bob has given up hyping anything to try to get more people to pay for his website. Maybe this is a good sign, lol
I am ALMOST Ready to throw in the Towel for anymore Winter Weather this Season. ALMOST?! Not, quite yet. It's not looking good as of right now. This Winter has been a joke. What can we do, We may just have to wait until next Season. Never know...mother nature has the last say though.
 
Wow Jon, I just saw that on precip maps. Very close for even down here in CAE. Moisture stays just South. That's something to watch.
 
Stormlover said:
It's hilarious to watch the second by second play by play each run...someone will be saying something like "what a mess" while at the same time someone else is saying "it's looking better this time" :D
Click to expand...
It's a better looking mess than it was. :)
 
The 850s are actually there in SC and east GA at 150 but the temps I'm not sure about. Don't think so but this was close to being a nice run.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top