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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Yeah, if it would kept its act together then the moisture would have been north, then it could have gotten real interested. I'm not writing this off yet still 6/7 days away.
 
Well, no sign up from me from this run. I can't get on that very excited list yet. Lol.

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I honestly don't see a solution In which many of us //ESP ga folks// see widespread snow. It seems that moisture and temperature are having a tight + relationship, meaning nothing is forcing the low level warm air to stay south and cold air to push in.


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This makes me bothered, if it was 50-60 degrees the moisture wouldn't stay south. It would be rain, 2-4". Faceplam and SMH!

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On the maps I have there's not much difference between the GEFS mean and GFS. A couple minor ones but not big ones.
 
On my free maps, the Euro trended south again...but as a difference from the other runs I saw, it places a 998 MB low off of the SC coast and then bombs out later at 955. Think it phased but late.

Temps likely aren't good.
 
ForsythSnow said:
After those runs, this thing looks bad. I doubt it will recover to be a snowstorm for anyone. It was close, but the trends are sheared apart and south.
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Well the Euro sure as heck is not sheared, 998 low off coast of SC, but is too north and warm. It then bombs into a hurricane 955 in the Atlantic. It seems to me it will be hard to find a happy medium between GFS and Euro that gives us a snowstorm.
 
0z Euro has a good look if the northern energy speeds up or out ULL slows down, one of the two. Until all models lock on the some solution at 500mb it's hard to call this one off. At this point however I really think NC is the only state at play here, not seeing signs for a cold press early enough for other states to get in on the action. A phase could create some magic possibly on the back end though.

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I agree Jon. Even here in NC we need the low to be where the GFS has it further south, then hope a well timed phase blows this thing up far enough south, or is a little slower with the energy than the Euro. Then hope there is just enough cold air available Lol.
 
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Also, I don't wanna be that guy, but - the ULL energy won't come ashore and be properly sampled until tomorrow...so things can change a bit once that happens as more observations are pumped into the models by tomorrow's 00z runs


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With the indices the way they are right now, I would bet on the more amped Euro solution right now, but also need the stronger portrayed Atlantic blocking of the GFS for us southerners to have a chance
 
Nice bust on temps this morning. Was suppose to be 34° this morning and it got down to 24°...LOL


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Jon said:
Also, I don't wanna be that guy, but - the ULL energy won't come ashore and be properly sampled until tomorrow...so things can change a bit once that happens as more observations are pumped into the models by tomorrow's 00z runs
Never understood why people get such a hard time for saying that. Makes sense to me that it is important to sample the energy to truly know what we are working with. I guess it can be the last vestige of a weenie after a series of bad model runs but based on what people are saying here not all is lost at this point in the game.

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SD said:
in the meantime though....Sunday...amazing
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Yes it does. I truly may take my lawn equipment and clean them off. I'm getting to the pt of being ready for warmer weather.

But my understanding is if you live in NC not to take your eyes off next week. Everyone else meh. LOL!

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SD said:
in the meantime though....Sunday...amazing
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whatalife said:
Yes it does. I truly may take my lawn equipment and clean them off. I'm getting to the pt of being ready for warmer weather.

But my understanding is if you live in NC not to take your eyes off next week. Everyone else meh. LOL!

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even in NC it looks meh. sure they have more wiggle room vs most on the board . but things look pretty crappy at the moment for everyone. the gefs is still supporting the suppressed idea . of course there is one member that we must not let accu35 see for his backyard lol
 
You know it's a bad winter when you wake up, log on and find conversation about belts and mower decks. LMAO! Man what a winter so far. Luckily my grass is still dormant, for now.
 
Storm5 said:
even in NC it looks meh. sure they have more wiggle room vs most on the board . but things look pretty crappy at the moment for everyone. the gefs is still supporting the suppressed idea . of course there is one member that we must not let accu35 see for his backyard lol
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It really wouldn't take a lot for the Euro to become a big deal...
 
Storm5 said:
even in NC it looks meh. sure they have more wiggle room vs most on the board . but things look pretty crappy at the moment for everyone. the gefs is still supporting the suppressed idea . of course there is one member that we must not let accu35 see for his backyard lol
Click to expand...

HAHA! For sure...


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Rodgers Pass, British Columbia where they don't worry about the sun angle, ground temps, timing , western ridges, lack of a NAO, the cold press, 850s, vorts getting ripped apart or better sampling
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the ensembles are not horrible moving forward. it will be interesting to see what kind of pattern we are in by the end of the month .I never move into spring mode until the 7th of march

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