Here's what the GFS showed 6 days before the January system.
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Pattern February Discussion Part II
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Here's what the GFS showed 6 days before the January system.
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RollTide18
Member
Another thing, with the 2/12/10 storm, for a while the models sent the low to Cuba, just something to think about.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Right now I put it at a 40% chance someone in the southeast gets snow. I love this look
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Suppression doesn't bother me, but this is about my limit as well. Like, I'd sign off on a look like this holding until Monday and for a slow NW adjustment to occur after it. I doubt we see a major change (as in a change to a cutter) unless we lose the PV but I doubt the PV is going to be as strong as depicted.
whatalife
Moderator
NorthGaWinter4
Member
http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/02/09/old-man-winter-rabbit-trick/
Mellish is honking early at the potential for next week/weekend
Mellish is honking early at the potential for next week/weekend
Upper low actually gets caught by the eastern trough thus it shears. Too much of a good thing
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pcbjr
Member
It's a week out and much can and will change... 3 days ago the GFS had me, way down here, with a few hard freezes ... now based on current runs, if i see 39º after tonight, no model is even suggesting it. Point being - IMHO - we just finished an 18Z run (and I emphasize - 18Z) and there's more to come with new data and new solutions - just hang in there (eternal optimism). But watch the Pac - it's the driver and until it lets the grip go, we're up and down I think -- OK - off the soap box ....
Storm5
Member
If you believe in the NW trend the gfs being too flat and too dominant with the trough in the NE would mean in the end the low and precip shield would be farther north. It will be fun to watch the models attempt to resolve the flow across the NE ans resultant effect on the cutoff. Who knows where this goes really. I don't see a lot of agreement on the NE trough and pieces of energy moving south through it
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There might not but the GFS is the deepest and farthest SW with the NE trough.
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Storm5
Member
pcbjr
Member
on your wagon, riding shotgun!
Speaking for mby we have a little wiggle room. The Euro nearly gave you your phase.
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Storm5
Member
At this point I think all solutions are still on the table minus cutting west of the apps
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whatalife
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
olhausen
Member
I gotta say I admire how much you are into the weather this time of year given how far south you are. I love weather also but mostly I love winter weather. Once mid march hits I'm silent on all weather boards except for one or two posts until the next winter comes.
DadOfJax
Member
We are all on pins and needles....
One thing that concerns me is that the GEFS members show very little if any snow.
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Here is some details of what I think may occur with the trends we have been seeing on the models. I put the favorable track of low between where the GFS is putting the track of low, and where the latest Euro is putting the track of low. I think the low will be going on that suppression track at first, but then I think it will go further north as the low progresses east. The reason why I think that is because, the vortex is coming down over the lakes and then it pushes east, when that occurs, it will allow for the low to come further north as it also pushes east. As of right now, I don't think we'll see a phase. The Euro is close at a phase cause it has the two pieces moving at the same time. GFS has the ULL hanging back while the vortex pushes east and then it gets kicked out and sheared. Still worth keeping an eye on, on the two pieces phasing.
pcbjr
Member
weather allows a chance to think in a non-linear fashion - i deal with linear facts and truths all day (half of them made up and i have to separate them - but they are provable facts, whereas weather is more take facts and derive possibilities) - so sorting out is 2nd nature, i suppose - if this makes any sense ??? - LOL
plus - weather is cathartic - no one gets a win or lose based on my "interpretation"
ATLwxfan
Member
pcbjr
Member
2nd reply -
I'll give you my summer forecast for MBY - starting June 1st and going until Sept 20th - 90º - 96º during the day - 70º - 76º at night (depending on t'storms) with a 60% chance of a boomer any given afternoon/evening - no variation - they'll probably ban me by June 15th if I start posting on that daily routine; but I do study tropics and called both Fla 'canes way out in advance this year - so I may get banned on my silly thoughts on that topic come August -- LOL
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Stormlover
Member
from wxsouth:
In today's blog update, I skipped right past the warm, sunny, gorgeous weekend/Monday time frame--we've had enough of that this Winter. Instead, it deals with what may or may not, happen next Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. Models are all very interesting and there's a lot going on. Suddenly , we have Greenland Blocking and Western US /Canada tall ridging showing up, that meet up eventually. Underneath, that spells a cool down in the East, and part of the Southeast, for that time frame, and the big question deals with how to handle the ejection of the Southwest upper low. Is the GFS model too far south? Is the European Model too fast? Its too early to know just yet, only specuation. wxsouth.com
Image: Next Wednesday surface from Euro Model Showing Southeast Low Pressure (PivotalWeather.com
)
In today's blog update, I skipped right past the warm, sunny, gorgeous weekend/Monday time frame--we've had enough of that this Winter. Instead, it deals with what may or may not, happen next Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. Models are all very interesting and there's a lot going on. Suddenly , we have Greenland Blocking and Western US /Canada tall ridging showing up, that meet up eventually. Underneath, that spells a cool down in the East, and part of the Southeast, for that time frame, and the big question deals with how to handle the ejection of the Southwest upper low. Is the GFS model too far south? Is the European Model too fast? Its too early to know just yet, only specuation. wxsouth.com
Image: Next Wednesday surface from Euro Model Showing Southeast Low Pressure (PivotalWeather.com
)
tennessee storm
Member
based on todays 12z euro day 9 and 10... talking about one powerfull pacific jet its advertising... 160kts... with a big trough digging deep in the sw corner... could be some trouble brewing down the road... not winter weather either...
pcbjr
Member
precisely ...
accu35
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usually in winter, these type of setups lead to Severe/winter weather solutions combo, but our luck just plane severe
Out of 39 major SN/IP at ATL, I counted 6 (15% of them) with 1025 mb or weaker peak high pressure in the C/E US. Interestingly, all 6 were during El Nino. Note that they were primarily late winter events and two of them were during mid Feb.:
2/12/2010, 1/22/1987, 2/26/1952, 3/2/1942, 3/14/1924, and 2/12-14/1885
So, it has happened a fair number of times though clearly 1030-1040 mb are preferred and we're not in El Nino this winter.
2/12/2010, 1/22/1987, 2/26/1952, 3/2/1942, 3/14/1924, and 2/12-14/1885
So, it has happened a fair number of times though clearly 1030-1040 mb are preferred and we're not in El Nino this winter.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Thanks for the research even though it's disappointing. You are indeed sir, the man
I researched the PNA and EPO this evening for the 16 major ATL SN/IP since 1948:
Of the 16, 9 had a solidly +PNA (>+0.5), 5 were neutral (-0.5 to +0.5), and 2 were solidly -PNA (<-0.5). The average PNA was +0.4. Median was +0.7.
Of the 16, 4 had a solidly -EP0 (<-100), 10 were neutral (-100 to +100), and 2 were solidly +EPO (>+100). The average EPO was -43 and the median was -34.
Of the 16, 9 had a solidly +PNA (>+0.5), 5 were neutral (-0.5 to +0.5), and 2 were solidly -PNA (<-0.5). The average PNA was +0.4. Median was +0.7.
Of the 16, 4 had a solidly -EP0 (<-100), 10 were neutral (-100 to +100), and 2 were solidly +EPO (>+100). The average EPO was -43 and the median was -34.
That's the last thing I'd be concerned about. They were unanimously showing me getting 10" of snow while the rain was pouring down.
It almost always is. I do not expect the ULL to dissipate. I do not expect the surface low to cross central or southern FL. I do expect the northern part of the precip shield to "expand" as we get closer. I do expect there to be issues with cold air. Phasing is a huge wild card and would bring to the table a host of favorable and unfavorable solutions.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
How about suppression to Key West? That's where I think it will head this upcoming run. Hope I am wrong!
I don't think it will end up that far south, I mean it could, if the vortex came further south which the vortex won't come down into the SE.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'd be perfectly ok with another suppressed look as long as it's not caught in the vortex/eastern trough again. It's too early for the north trend to start for my taste but I don't really want to see another south trend.
preference would be for the track to stay put in south central FL for a while, and for a slow trend north starting on Sunday.
preference would be for the track to stay put in south central FL for a while, and for a slow trend north starting on Sunday.
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