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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Dang, I thought we were gonna have a good run for a bit!!! Cold looks to keep getting colder...... I hope somebody in the SE can cash in, And I think they will, just who is the question?
 
Holy geez at the strength of the PV. I also feel pretty certain that the final solution won't have a PV that is that strong.

So this run started out not as suppressed but will end up more suppressed.
 
This is about as much suppression as I'd like to see at this range.


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Still has a 1009 low crossing FL, I bet NW trend starts at oz
 
SnowHusky said:
Looks like I'm going to have make some maps up tonight on the solution I'm thinking.

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Yeah, I like looking at maps, Just make sure to paint me in, even if you don't think I'll get anything! lol. Keeps my hopes up. :)
 
People are complaining about the Suppression look, but remember the NW Trend always happen so if we get a Trend NW we would be in the Game here in the Southeast. The fact that a storm is there and now Cold Air we have good Signals for a Storm.
 
I've seen plenty of times where the storm will come back after being suppressed. My question is when this does, will there be enough cold air?

I think so at least at the top of the precip shield, as long as we don't lose the PV. I think in future runs we're not going to see a PV that is that strong but it will (hopefully) still be there.
 
Eh, might be a small hit into SC/NC still on this run on the backside but I don't think its anything substantial 2m temps arent too great for most
 
It's headed to Miami..... no worries yet but the PV can stop flexing now. Seems I recall a couple of days ago when this ULL was going north of us that someone said something about this being one of the rare occasions where it will most likely trend south and colder basically due to blocking and the pattern out ahead of it ;) (whistling) Lol hey a blind squirrel....
 
Think storm mentioned this but watch that energy diving down behind it.... maybe something, maybe not
 
metwannabe said:
Think storm mentioned this but watch that energy diving down behind it.... maybe something, maybe not
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The map I'm going to make will be the track of low, of my thinking. I'm not going to make a snowfall accumulation map yet, it's too early for that.

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metwannabe said:
So if I remember correctly today's NE blizzard at one point was developing east of the Bahamas right? Just sayin....

Oh snap GFS bout to do something special for the Carolina's... crazy goofus
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Initially, the low was OTS in the middle of the ocean... then it trended into a massive cutter.
 
We desperately need the ULL to stay together over TX...otherwise there won't be a NW trend, it will be a suppressed rainstorm for good.
 
so much going on days 6-10 on the gfs . the next 72 hours Will be fun to see the different solutions the models spit out

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GeorgiaGirl said:
It doesn't do what I thought was possible but it does help the shortwave reload, just does so OTS.
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shortwave reload? what do you mean by that? that's just northern stream energy that just happens to dive down, it will be gone with the 00z run...
 
Storm5 said:
it is , so much going . these 18z gfs solutions are so much fun. too bad they can't all be that way

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Pacific energy crashing into west coast, rolling the pac ridge along, thus not allowing the trough to go negative or neutral with second wave and nothing.... but as you say man there is stuff all over the place. At least there is hope
 
I mean, this is a good setup for something magical to happen. I know Im wishcasting but I don't care lol.
 
metwannabe said:
Pacific energy crashing into west coast, rolling the pac ridge along, thus not allowing the trough to go negative or neutral with second wave and nothing.... but as you say man there is stuff all over the place. At least there is hope
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been singin' Pac blues for weeks - time to write another verse ... lol
 
Jon said:
shortwave reload? what do you mean by that? that's just northern stream energy that just happens to dive down, it will be gone with the 00z run...
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Great point.... the GFS magically appearing disappearing s/w energy trick doing it to us again. Lol
 
Jon said:
shortwave reload? what do you mean by that? that's just northern stream energy that just happens to dive down, it will be gone with the 00z run...
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That northern stream energy helped refuel some energy that just stalled off of the SC coast. And no, I've seen this before on the wacky GFS, last week in fact on multiple runs (a more extreme version than this). A shortwave just stalling off of the coast for some reason. Of course it likely won't happen.
 
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