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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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That system showing up mid month was colder than 6z as it pushes off the coast and the track of low is further south. I'm not going to buy anything from the GFS without ensemble support or Euro this time. That dang gum GFS will put you in a model situation lol.

By the way, I'm known as SnowHusky, thanks Shawn for changing it for me. I like snow and husky dogs because their cold climate dogs that likes snow as much as me.

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JB tweeted this: Rare high amplitude phase 8 MJO for Feb being forecasted only 3 times last 40 years.. 1999,1988,1978

Went back and did composites for Feb of each of those three years; 1999 was warm (the month before - Jan - was also very warm, if not a "torch"), 1998 was cool (preceding Jan was very cool), 1978 was cold (as was the preceding Jan) (won't hog up a page showing all those maps LOL). Point being that even a strong Ph8 MJO doesn't always have the right mojo
 
pcbjr said:
JB tweeted this: Rare high amplitude phase 8 MJO for Feb being forecasted only 3 times last 40 years.. 1999,1988,1978

Went back and did composites for Feb of each of those three years; 1999 was warm (the month before - Jan - was also very warm, if not a "torch"), 1998 was cool (preceding Jan was very cool), 1978 was cold (as was the preceding Jan) (won't hog up a page showing all those maps LOL). Point being that even a strong Ph8 MJO doesn't always have the right mojo
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We got our only snow in the 98-99 winter in late Feb, even though it was just a very light dusting.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
We got our only snow in the 98-99 winter in late Feb, even though it was just a very light dusting.
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it only takes one minor miracle :~)
but the point being - one index doesn't necessarily carry the day (and frankly i can't go search now the other indices for Feb of those 3 years!!)
 
Our JB video should be coming soon. Youtube is slow as all Hell.
 
pcbjr said:
the whole freakin' internet is today ....
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Storm5's computer is from 1980 and he didn't shrink his massive cam. But, ill post the youtube link here soon and i'm sure he will make a thread somewhere too.
 
Yeah, Storm still has the original Apple computer lol... just kidding

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pcbjr said:
the whole freakin' internet is today ....
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Not to get too far off topic (wait too late lol) but we've noticed our internet is extremely slow here at work today as well. Funny I've heard that from many locations......hmmm

BTW check your PM
 
pcbjr said:
JB tweeted this: Rare high amplitude phase 8 MJO for Feb being forecasted only 3 times last 40 years.. 1999,1988,1978

Went back and did composites for Feb of each of those three years; 1999 was warm (the month before - Jan - was also very warm, if not a "torch"), 1998 was cool (preceding Jan was very cool), 1978 was cold (as was the preceding Jan) (won't hog up a page showing all those maps LOL). Point being that even a strong Ph8 MJO doesn't always have the right mojo
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1999 probably didn't feature a tanking AO and a huge spike in the PNA either. I would be shocked if that didn't produce some type of system for some of us.
 
b297d40a5a35e932d5725084927e7550.jpg


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Shawn said:
Storm5's computer is from 1980 and he didn't shrink his massive cam. But, ill post the youtube link here soon and i'm sure he will make a thread somewhere too.
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Haha yeah yeah . no more work computers that's for sure lol. and yes I cut his face off . oh well
 
ForsythSnow said:
Another day, another failed high. Only got up to 54 before the rain. Doubt we will get to 61. Strange how it is chilly up here and almost 10 degrees higher 20 miles south.
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Same here. We have missed the forecast the past three days.

Saturday: F: 52 A: 47
Sunday: F: 57 A: 50
Today: F: 59 A: 54

Currently 50.8 with mist/fog. I'm not mad lol. Looks like we'll warm up finally tomorrow though.
 
Hmm, this looks familiar...
Definitely having flashbacks to that ULL that resulted in the high risk of severe wx in parts of GA & FL a few weeks ago esp given the EPS forecasts a few weeks in advance looked very similar wrt placement of large-scale planetary waves. I personally wondered what would have happened if we had that setup a month later in the midst of better severe wx climo...
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eps_z500a_noram_61.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hmm, this looks familiar...
Definitely having flashbacks to that ULL that resulted in the high risk of severe wx in parts of GA & FL a few weeks ago esp given the EPS forecasts a few weeks in advance looked very similar wrt placement of large-scale planetary waves. I personally wondered what would have happened if we had that setup a month later in the midst of better severe wx climo...
View attachment 29
View attachment 28
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Fortunately, it doesn't look as strong as the last event. Hopefully it doesn't go the way of severe weather again.
 
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