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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Of course while I'm here begging for a look that is good to NOT appear yet...with my luck we'll see a phase on 0z and someone get plastered.
 
I already see that the ULL is shifted south and west than 18z at hr 66. It's a slight shift, not a major shift. This is good cause it might be waiting for the vortex to come down.

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Gfs has the SW energy a little farther SW and a little more separated from the main flow

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Oh man, what of this ULL ends up down in the Gulf and it comes up through south FL and then off the southeast coast with it amplifying with the cold in place. I'm wishcasting but we would get a lot of snow if that solution occurred.

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I think the PV is just starting to appear out of Canada, hopefully that's not too late and perhaps we get that unicorn phase. And at least it returns to what the 12z was like (and beforehand).
 
The ULL is more over Mexico now than 18z...it's not on the boarder like 18z was. Yeah, this is going to be a fun run of what this looks like so far.

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this is probably going to be suppressed again but this time...I don't think the PV/eastern trough is going to tear it up. It's staying more defined than the 18z run did.
 
The ULL is starting to pick up speed than 18z at hr 120. Is there going to be a phase? Huhhh, maybe

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It's a little bit warmer because the cold press from the PV isn't as strong. Either the PV/eastern trough is about to tear this thing up a bit or we're about to see a phase as this seems like it's starting to stretch out now...
 
Its gonna get sheared/messed up again.

Sorry guys.
 
I'm still of the opinion that this is more defined than the last run but it definitely doesn't do what we really need it to.
 
Warmer and further North with the Low.

Either way, congrats Euro. You will win again.
 
Man, that's close to a phase! Will we start to see a phasing trend? It's a possibility.

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The Euro could just as easily be wrong again like January. It was already trending south over recent runs and I think earlier on (as in days ago) it was showing an Apps Runner.

I still don't think the PV will be as strong as depicted. I think it'll be there but will be weaker.

But if this doesn't phase, a typical climo track isn't going to cut it I don't think. Just not enough cold air.
 
RollTide18 said:
If that ULL would just stay intact, why is getting sheared?
Click to expand...

That thing that is helping with cold is tearing at it. So basically, in the most likely situation, we are screwed if that continues.
 
RollTide18 said:
If that ULL would just stay intact, why is getting sheared?
Click to expand...
Too steep of a height field out front. When it hits that accelerated flow it gets channeled and sheared. My only real negative out of that gfs run is the faster eastward movement of the upper low. There was a NE trend in the NE

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RollTide18 said:
If that ULL would just stay intact, why is getting sheared?
Click to expand...

You see, the thing is, if it wasn't being sheared out, that low track would make me think there'd be more precip further north. In fact I think that's pretty close to 2/12/10 (the low track), maybe a bit further south but not much. But again... cold=???
 
Oye....this just goes *poof* while trying to cross Florida. Again I don't think the PV is going to be as strong as this but the best bet here is likely a phase. If we don't see a phase, this likely either shears out or only has a strip of snow at the top of the precip shield.
 
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