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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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bouncycorn said:
Honestly the nao only helps the ne. -NAO, + PNA, + EPO is a recipe for cutters


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2009/2010 seemed to help the South, the -NAO and blocking
 
I have heard arguments from both sides on what is the more important driver... Atlantic or Pacific? In my experience here in NC, high latitude blocking will trump a bad Pacific. However, that is mostly due to the CAD that's associated with blocking.
 
I'll have to look at some ensemble modeling, 500 heights to get some idea's up and keep an eye on the teleconnections.

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pcbjr said:
Thanks!
Some folks can get too hung up on one index and not pay attention to or recognize the bigger picture (i.e., the entire set of dynamics, or as I said somewhere else here today - the grit in the gearbox).
But then ... I have some learnin' still to do, myself ... IMHO - and you're a good teacher - seriously!
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You're welcome. You've inspired me to do a compilation of the peaks of 4 important indices, PNA, EPO (from your link), NAO, and AO (not necessarily in order of significance) during each string to go with the 5 highest amp long-stringed Feb phase 8 MJO episodes and the Atlanta temperature anomalies starting with the strongest phase 8 MJO and going less strong:

1. 1988: 2/21-29. ATL -1. Highest PNA: +1.5; Lowest EPO: -147; Lowest NAO: -0.2; Lowest AO: -2.3

2. 1999: 2/16-21. ATL +1. Highest PNA: +0.8; Lowest EPO: -7; Lowest NAO: +0.3; Lowest AO: +0.3

3. 2006: 2/4-9. ATL -6. Highest PNA: +1.4; Lowest EPO: -53; Lowest NAO: -0.5; Lowest AO: -2.5

4. 1978: 2/7-10,23-28. ATL -9. Highest PNA: +1.4; Lowest EPO: -234; Lowest NAO: -1.5; Lowest AO: -4.5

5. 2010: 2/7-13. ATL -11. Highest PNA: +1.2; Lowest EPO: +15; Lowest NAO: -1.3; Lowest AO: -5.0

My analysis of the above: Highest correlations of these 4 indices to cold during these very high amp Feb phase 8 strings in ATL fwiw appear to be -NAO and then the -AO close behind. I still maintain that the +PNA has one of, if not the, strongest correlation to SE US cold (I hope to post on this later when I get time), but here it isn't as clearcut partially due to a relatively low range. The lowest PNA (+0.8) was the warmest (1999), which is intuitive, but the coldest (2010) had the 2nd lowest lowest PNA (+1.2) although that is still a pretty high PNA. The -EPO is even less intuitive as the highest lowest EPO (+15) was the coldest (2010) and the 2nd lowest lowest (-147) was during the 2nd warmest (1988). But the EPO was intuitive with the other 3 cases.

Another thing to keep in mind is that these 5 very strong Feb phase 8 strings tended to be colder when that high strength wasn't as extreme. Is that due to MJO, itself, or is it due to the four other indices I listed? Who knows? One can drive themselves crazy trying to figure out the atmospheric puzzle!
 
gefs is entertaining with the cutoff days 7-10. you can see the blocking on the members as the cutoff hits a wall and heads due east
 
GaWx said:
You're welcome. You've inspired me to do a compilation of the peaks of 4 important indices, PNA, EPO (from your link), NAO, and AO (not necessarily in order of significance) during each string to go with the 5 highest amp long-stringed Feb phase 8 MJO episodes and the Atlanta temperature anomalies starting with the strongest phase 8 MJO and going less strong:

1. 1988: 2/21-29. ATL -1. Highest PNA: +1.5; Lowest EPO: -147; Lowest NAO: -0.2; Lowest AO: -2.3

2. 1999: 2/16-21. ATL +1. Highest PNA: +0.8; Lowest EPO: -7; Lowest NAO: +0.3; Lowest AO: +0.3

3. 2006: 2/4-9. ATL -6. Highest PNA: +1.4; Lowest EPO: -53; Lowest NAO: -0.5; Lowest AO: -2.5

4. 1978: 2/7-10,23-28. ATL -9. Highest PNA: +1.4; Lowest EPO: -234; Lowest NAO: -1.5; Lowest AO: -4.5

5. 2010: 2/7-13. ATL -11. Highest PNA: +1.2; Lowest EPO: +15; Lowest NAO: -1.3; Lowest AO: -5.0

My analysis of the above: Highest correlations of these 4 indices to cold during these very high amp Feb phase 8 strings in ATL fwiw appear to be -NAO and then the -AO close behind. I still maintain that the +PNA has one of, if not the, strongest correlation to SE US cold (I hope to post on this later when I get time), but here it isn't as clearcut partially due to a relatively low range. The lowest PNA (+0.8) was the warmest (1999), which is intuitive, but the coldest (2010) had the 2nd lowest lowest PNA (+1.2) although that is still a pretty high PNA. The -EPO is even less intuitive as the highest lowest EPO (+15) was the coldest (2010) and the 2nd lowest lowest (-147) was during the 2nd warmest (1988). But the EPO was intuitive with the other 3 cases.

Another thing to keep in mind is that these 5 very strong Feb phase 8 strings tended to be colder when that high strength wasn't as extreme. Is that due to MJO, itself, or is it due to the four other indices I listed? Who knows? One can drive themselves crazy trying to figure out the atmospheric puzzle!
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Drive themselves crazy or take a break from being in a courtroom!? I'll go for the sanity of weather, however unpredictable, after the unpredictable but enjoyable, and yes immediate, rush from the other (no models there - it's all now-casting without a window in sight ... LOL)
 
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looking at the CVSv2 - yummy for cooking steaks ... something new, radical or not public that is a departure from those?
 
I can't wait to take a look at those weeklies

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