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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Okay, well, we're 5-6 days away from the 15th-16th system, if there will be one. There may not be one at all. If something is going to happen, it will give between now and 2-3 days before the time period. I'm not completely writing the 15th-16th time period off yet.
 
SnowHusky said:
Okay, well, we're 5-6 days away from the 15th-16th system, if there will be one. There may not be one at all. If something is going to happen, it will give between now and 2-3 days before the time period. I'm not completely writing the 15th-16th time period off yet.
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My $$ is on the 20th .. book it, Dano ....
 
Storm5 said:
that's webbers severe weather time period

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Yes sir and YUP and it is -- I'm just waiting for folks to figure out where that time period is taking them -- my $$$ is on the time frame is a big bad biggie - not the sort we enjoy
 
We've had this discussion several times about the PAC being in a mess. The PAC is coming in hot, 150+kt winds. From looking at the GFS, after the 20th, the jet stream won't be coming in so hot. Plus, it will have a split flow and not a stream crashing into the west with 150+kt winds. The storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS and EPS will need to be watched. The GFS has been hinting at an east coast storm, EPS has been hinting at the storm as well, but it has it as a cutter. Depending on what the teleconnections look like and the MJO, there could be a major east coast storm. Will it be a snow storm, severe weather or both? can't have an answer for that right now. I do believe that the +PNA will continue. The NAO is trending negative around our possible storm during the 15th-16th and then the outlook is showing it trending back +. After the 20th or so, I think the NAO will tank negative.
 
*This is just for fun* but, if the GFS model continues to show this, I will get more serious about it.

What your looking at is a comparison at the blizzard of '93 up at H5 and the storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS up at H5 as well. This is fun to look at.

GFS storm signal, H5 map
a31ca30e3278d7b1eee9c47f92e025bc.jpg


Blizzard of '93 H5 map
7f7f833bab106ca0da80be9f37a0f739.jpg


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SnowHusky said:
*This is just for fun* but, if the GFS model continues to show this, I will get more serious about it.

What your looking at is a comparison at the blizzard of '93 up at H5 and the storm signal that has been showing up on the GFS up at H5 as well. This is fun to look at.

GFS storm signal, H5 map
a31ca30e3278d7b1eee9c47f92e025bc.jpg


Blizzard of '93 H5 map
7f7f833bab106ca0da80be9f37a0f739.jpg


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and just for purposes of discussion, surface temp comparisons, for example?
 
Coming back into Greenville this evening was the most beautiful sunset and in the eastern sky the beautiful full Snow Moon rising. The snow moon will be eclipsed later tonight. Just maybe it's lining up just right for us to get snow. I read in the Old Farmers Almanac back in the 70's, that snow more often, comes within 7 to 10 days following either a full or new moon.
 
pcbjr said:
and just for purposes of discussion, surface temp comparisons, for example?
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It's not showing it will be that cold like the blizzard of '93. Just comparing H5 maps cause those look identical. On the 18z GFS, there's a HP over eastern Canada, put that HP about 50 miles south or so, that storm would be another historical winter storm.

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SnowHusky said:
It's not showing it will be that cold like the blizzard of '93. Just comparing H5 maps cause those look identical. On the 18z GFS, there's a HP over eastern Canada, put that HP about 50 miles south or so, that storm would be another historical winter storm.

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Thanks! I like comparing every concurrent variable I can find and then, maybe, concluding a possibility ... but that's just me LOL
 
pcbjr said:
Thanks! I like comparing every concurrent variable I can find and then, maybe, concluding a possibility ... but that's just me LOL
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I like to do that too. I was just looking at the 850 temps and they are cold enough to support snow. The surface temps are in the 30s and 40s. This is something to watch if this look appears on future model runs. Can't wait for the 0z.

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SnowHusky said:
I like to do that too. I was just looking at the 850 temps and they are cold enough to support snow. The surface temps are in the 30s and 40s. This is something to watch if this look appears on future model runs. Can't wait for the 0z.

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teach and learn .. but it's been now a 20 hour day this away - and I've learned it's not gonna snow or sleet or rain here tonight, so .... o_O!
 
SnowHusky said:
It's not showing it will be that cold like the blizzard of '93. Just comparing H5 maps cause those look identical. On the 18z GFS, there's a HP over eastern Canada, put that HP about 50 miles south or so, that storm would be another historical winter storm.

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93 was a triple phaser. Completely different

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The shield of moisture is more together at 102 than 18z. East of the APPs may do okay on this run. It is colder as well on this run.

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After these past two runs, I have a theory of what's going on and it's not a phase. Most of this system gets caught in the PV.
 
gfs and euro are on two different planets at the moment . I bet the euro goes back to a more gfs like solution

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GeorgiaGirl said:
The Euro still deserves to be trusted more than the GFS but it hasn't been that good this year.
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trusted because of one run phased run that had little ensemble support ?

the gfs and it's ensembles have been rock solid with a more suppressed solution and OTS

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Storm5 said:
gfs and euro are on two different planets at the moment . I bet the euro goes back to a more gfs like solution

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While I hate to go against the euro I think there is some true in what you are saying.


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The time period I'm keeping an eye on is coming up, of the possible major EC storm.

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