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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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We can either worry about the cold later or worry about the moisture later. Either way, we're good!


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GaWx said:
1. I talked to a pro met today and he said that even though we're headed toward MJO phase 8, Indonesian convection, which has been extra persistent this winter, is expected to linger, which may make the effects act more like phases 4-5 than phase 8. He was saying that earlier this winter there have been phase 7-8-1-2 that were warm in the E US because of this. I'm just passing this along. I hope he's wrong about the upcoming MJO phases 7-8, etc. One thing that's different now and upcoming is a strong negative AO (even after adjusting for GEFS -AO bias), which I pointed out to him. He doesn't seem to be thinking we'll get a strong -AO cold response. I honestly think he's off but he's the pro, not I.
I bet Eric Webb might find this met's MJO thoughts interesting. Also, I wonder what Shane thinks about this.

2. The PNA adjusted for GEFS slight -PNA bias is now projected to reach a whopping ~+2.0 2/15! There have been only 3 met winter days since 1950 with a +2.0+ PNA!!

3. The GEFS bias adjusted AO is now down to below -2.0 and is now not projected to peak til around when the PNA peaks at midmonth.

4. Today's GEFS NAO fcast is quite a bit less positive than recent days and is threatening to actually go negative around midmonth!
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While this is true, I don't agree with this at all... This MJO pulse, instigated by the recent high-latitude stratospheric warming event, is one of the strongest on record for this time of the year in the Pacific, most of the other MO events thus far this winter have been based closer to the Western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean and were considerably weaker & more transient. It's also pretty evident that the low frequency base state and Walker Cell are beginning to collapse and undergoing more rapid change in concert w/ the seasonal cycle, hence the response this time around is liable to be very different.

You can see this via GEFS VP200 anomalies. A considerable amount of upper level convergence centered on the Maritime Continent and far western Pacific...

gfs-ens_chi200Mean_global_4.png
 
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Being that this system is well over 200 hrs away tells me that this has great potential and plenty of time to watch model runs. I'm with Charlie, I love this setup.
 
Storm5 said:
yes it is. it's just timing . it has to setup just a little quicker . I love this setup
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Yes, the blocking comes in the right position as the system pushes off to the north and east, but then it's too late. I like the setup too, as always timing is everything for us here.

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I'm going on a cruise on 2/19 out of New Orleans. I'm from Columbus, GA. It will snow 10 inches and I will miss ever flake. It's going to happen. That's my life. Yall can thank me later. ;) I new to weather. I love reading all of you guys post .
 
Webberweather53 said:
While this is true, I don't agree with this at all... This MJO pulse, instigated by the recent high-latitude stratospheric warming event, is one of the strongest on record for this time of the year in the Pacific, most of the other MO events thus far this winter have been based closer to the Western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean and were considerably weaker & more transient. It's also pretty evident that the low frequency base state and Walker Cell are beginning to collapse and undergoing more rapid change in concert w/ the seasonal cycle, hence the response this time around is liable to be very different.

You can see this via GEFS VP200 anomalies. A considerable amount of upper level convergence centered on the Maritime Continent and far western Pacific...

View attachment 37
Click to expand...

Thanks, Eric! I think you, Phil, Shane, Charlie, and others will find the following interesting. I know several here have been trying to figure out why this winter has been so warm. What is the missing link this winter? I know Phil and others have emphasized the Pacific.

Here are some of this pro met's thoughts about the MJO/Indonesian convection/warmth this winter that were just emailed to me (he gave me permission to show this):

-----Original Message-----
Sent: Feb 7, 2017 11:49 AM

"Hi Larry,
I just wanted to clarify what it is that I am looking at for the MJO. Below is one component (200mb Velocity Potential), which shows the late Dec/early Jan event as well as the mid to late Jan event. This was a fast moving signal, and the next round will likely be fast as well (likely faster than models like GFS are showing)."

( I didn't copy this met's charts.)

"Where the colder phases have failed so far is due to the storminess around Indonesia and characteristic of phases 4-5-6 (see green in map around 120E, -OLR=more clouds and storminess). This was present even when the upper level signal was elsewhere."

"This is especially the case north of the equator (see green in map below, which is fairly consistent around 120E longitude)."

"This is the reason why this winter has been warm dominated in the Eastern Half, and this may continue to be the case. But like we discussed, the upcoming case may be different given factors like the –AO and what is a stronger MJO signal within the models versus other times this winter. We will have to watch this going forward, but for now we hold onto a similar response for the mid-long range periods as seen earlier this year and correcting for biases."

"As always, let us know if you have any questions."
 
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Well, if it isn't going to snow I would rather it be like today and 75 and sunny instead of getting rain or cold and dry. I am starting to think we are done here as far as winter storms.
 
that was a fun gefs run . Big timing spread between days 7-10 and about 4 different solution from a cutter, apps runner , miller A and two that are even suppressed
 
GaWx said:
Thanks, Eric! I think you, Phil, Shane, Charlie, and others will find the following interesting. I know several here have been trying to figure out why this winter has been so warm. What is the missing link this winter? I know Phil and others have emphasized the Pacific.

Here are some of this pro met's thoughts about the MJO/Indonesian convection/warmth this winter that were just emailed to me (he gave me permission to show this):

Deleted the text so as not to take up space; just saw this from JB, and after his interview and this thread, it's worthy of sharing (I think):
Screen_Shot_2017_02_07_at_12_36_34_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2017_02_07_at_12_36_56_PM.png
Click to expand...
 
What's the old saying about thunderstorms in the winter? Is it within a week that you will see snow? I had lots of Thunder before the sun came up so maybe I'll see some snow soon. The latest gfs run did show a few snow flurries from the system that's going to clobber NY and Boston.
 
Deleted the text so as not to take up space; just saw this from JB, and after his interview and this thread, it's worthy of sharing (I think):
Screen_Shot_2017_02_07_at_12_36_34_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2017_02_07_at_12_36_56_PM.png
 
pcbjr said:
Deleted the text so as not to take up space; just saw this from JB, and after his interview and this thread, it's worthy of sharing (I think):
Screen_Shot_2017_02_07_at_12_36_34_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2017_02_07_at_12_36_56_PM.png
Click to expand...
Why do I have a feeling eric is going to come along and crush out MJO hopes. Well not crush, bring us back to reality is more like it
 
Storm5 said:
Why do I have a feeling eric is going to come along and crush out MJO hopes. Well not crush, bring us back to reality is more like it
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because he knows more than most of us, and if he does come back and crush us, he'll explain why and we learn ...
 
Winter is not over, we will get an event before it's over, I guarantee it! Sit back and enjoy the ride because it's coming once everyone writes it off. I've seen plenty march snows so I'm not ruling that possibility out.
 
pcbjr said:
because he knows more than most of us, and if he does come back and crush us, he'll explain why and we learn ...
Click to expand...
yep , that's why he is well respected. He explains everything and does not just drop two or three word responses . Now most of the time I'm having to scramble to do research because his knowledge is so extensive that a good portion of it goes in one eye bounces around the brain and gets rejected out the other side. Funny, one day last week i let my wife read one of his posts and she said " you understand that?" and I said " hell no , I was hoping maybe you could help " hahahaha

we should do a live show and let him just teach

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