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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Me on top of 15 FEET of snow at Lake Tahoe ....ah how sweet it was
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Next winter should at least be colder. A summer with highs in mid 80's would be nice too


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I can site some weak El Nino years (and I don't rely on any before 1950 with much certainty so I won't list any here) with horrible SE results too. 52-53, 53-54 94-95, 04-05, 06-07, moderate 63-64, 91-92. All those winters pretty much sucked and I would actually feel better with a strong Nino than a weak or moderate one. With the Atlantic in the warm phase (unlike some of the better snow years
 
I've often said that a lot of the snow average in some southeastern states comes from big events that don't happen yearly. Sometimes there's a nickel and dime event of 1-2 inches of snow in a winter but more often than not, if it snows at all in the southeast it's fairly big.
 
MichaelJ said:
I can site some weak El Nino years (and I don't rely on any before 1950 with much certainty so I won't list any here) with horrible SE results too. 52-53, 53-54 94-95, 04-05, 06-07, moderate 63-64, 91-92. All those winters pretty much sucked and I would actually feel better with a strong Nino than a weak or moderate one. With the Atlantic in the warm phase (unlike some of the better snow years
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1. 1963-4 was a very cold winter in the SE and there was a big 12/31 winter storm for many.

2.1991-2 gave ATL a 5" SN though it was a mild winter.

3. 2004-5 gave ATL and others a major ZR though it as a mild winter.

4. There are many exceptions to what is favored. But weak to mod Nino winters have averaged coldest of any ENSO.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Next winter should at least be colder. A summer with highs in mid 80's would be nice too


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I don't mind those temps, as long the dew point readings aren't in the 70s. Lol.

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ATLwxfan said:
Next winter should at least be colder. A summer with highs in mid 80's would be nice too


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Due to 2015-6 ending up mild overall, that's what many including myself thought for 2016-7. But yes, I agree 2017-8 should be colder than 2016-7, one of the warmest ever.
 
Storm5 said:
you missed the point . just cause a storm puts down 2 inches does not mean it's light snow. it could be a quick burst giving 2 inches in a very short time .

4-6 inches a year? 4-6 inches a year of that's what your saying is very unrealistic for the southeast . sure it can happen . it's happened plenty of times. but most of the time in the SE we are lucky to hit the seasonal average


no attitude here. I'm in a great mood this morning
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Lol
 
Well, that's something new that the CMC has. It has a low coming up from the Gulf at hr 168. I'm not sure about that, the other models don't have that feature.

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This isn't a new feature, the CMC had the same solution on the 0z run... This low pressure area originates out of the Bay of Campeche and shoots north thru the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies as it nears the Gulf coast, it's not fully tropical, but definitely looks like a shallow warm core, subtropical cyclone. It's exceptionally unlikely to occur, but certainly not zero w/ a favorable MJO, concurrent ULL over Mexico allowing for large-scale diffluence over the GOM, and above-well above average SSTs.
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Webberweather53 said:
This isn't a new feature, the CMC had the same solution on the 0z run... This low pressure area originates out of the Bay of Campeche and shoots north thru the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies as it nears the Gulf coast, it's not fully tropical, but definitely looks like a shallow warm core, subtropical cyclone. It's exceptionally unlikely to occur, but certainly not zero w/ a favorable MJO, concurrent ULL over Mexico allowing for large-scale diffluence over the GOM, and above-well above average SSTs.
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and look at where that 540 line is .... :eek:
 
Webberweather53 said:
This isn't a new feature, the CMC had the same solution on the 0z run... This low pressure area originates out of the Bay of Campeche and shoots north thru the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies as it nears the Gulf coast, it's not fully tropical, but definitely looks like a shallow warm core, subtropical cyclone. It's exceptionally unlikely to occur, but certainly not zero w/ a favorable MJO, concurrent ULL over Mexico allowing for large-scale diffluence over the GOM, and above-well above average SSTs.
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Oh okay, I didn't look at the 0z CMC last night that's why I thought it was a new feature. The GFS kinda has the feature in extreme south TX, but it's not a confined LP area.

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Webberweather53 said:
This isn't a new feature, the CMC had the same solution on the 0z run... This low pressure area originates out of the Bay of Campeche and shoots north thru the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies as it nears the Gulf coast, it's not fully tropical, but definitely looks like a shallow warm core, subtropical cyclone. It's exceptionally unlikely to occur, but certainly not zero w/ a favorable MJO, concurrent ULL over Mexico allowing for large-scale diffluence over the GOM, and above-well above average SSTs.
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Cool, I could use some tropical moisture, we are still very dry in the areas of worst drought from last summer! Bring on a February tropical storm! The new norm as opposed to winter storms ! :(
 
Oh my cow..all this back and forth over snowfall rates. Geez. Give it a rest. It's irritating to have to sift through all the gibberish to actually read real weather discussion.
 
After looking over the GFS and CMC, I just though of something. That feature that the CMC has, GFS kinda has the feature, so it could possibly really be something.

Anyway, I wonder if there would be a phase with the storm system that the GFS has been hinting at around the 22nd-24th or so, and that feature coming up from the Gulf (if that feature is really something) will phase. Maybe that's why the GFS was showing a major EC storm on its past runs starting at NC and on northward. The GFS still has the storm on it's 12z run but it's not starting from NC and on northward.

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SnowHusky said:
After looking over the GFS and CMC, I just though of something. That feature that the CMC has, GFS kinda has the feature, so it could possibly really be something.

Anyway, I wonder if there would be a phase with the storm system that the GFS has been hinting at around the 22nd-24th or so, and that feature coming up from the Gulf (if that feature is really something) will phase. Maybe that's why the GFS was showing a major EC storm on its past runs starting at NC and on northward. The GFS still has the storm on it's 12z run but it's not starting from NC and on northward.

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there is no cold air to play with - it's t-storm weather
 
pcbjr said:
there is no cold air to play with - it's t-storm weather
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There would be cold air to work with if there is a phase from that weather system that the GFS has been hinting at. Not saying that there will be a phase. It's just a thought.

Edit: Also, the MJO is in a fairly good spot (still in phase 8) during that time period.

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The is the GFS ensemble for 23rd...no cold air but that position of low looks great.
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tennessee storm said:
yeah no doubt... severe weather is fixing to rock... look for a active spring, perhaps... most active since 2011
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Time to lock up this dumpster fire, and move to the severe thread! 70s gonna be the rule for Feb and it sucks, but time to move on!
 
SnowHusky said:
There would be cold air to work with if there is a phase from that weather system that the GFS has been hinting at. Not saying that there will be a phase. It's just a thought.

Edit: Also, the MJO is in a fairly good spot (still in phase 8) during that time period.

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if, if , if - and no adversarial tone or thought intended - the cold air is sooooo far north, it would take an act of God to get enough of it into the SE to bring a "surprise" - not saying it can't or won't happen, but realistically .... :(
 
SnowHusky said:
The is the GFS ensemble for 23rd...no cold air but that position of low looks great.
eaf2bc13729096c7ff6579c227b80b9f.jpg


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I think Einstein said it but "insanity \\,is doing the same thing and expecting different results ! Storms in the perfect path, with no cold = rain! :(
 
SnowHusky said:
Well, that's something new that the CMC has. It has a low coming up from the Gulf at hr 168. I'm not sure about that, the other models don't have that feature.

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That would spread beneficial rains in drought areas without having to deal with severe weather. That's a plus
 
Listen everyone, this is a weather forum and for that we talk about anything and everything about wdather. This is the February thread so let keep the topic on course. There's no reason for anyone to leave this forum, sure we all have options but let's not be rude to others. This is suppose to be fun not stressful, this is where we should enjoy each other thoughts and analysis, good place to meet and get to know ppl and learn. This is a growing site, let's keep gold
 
accu35 said:
Listen everyone, this is a weather forum and for that we talk about anything and everything about wdather. This is the February thread so let keep the topic on course. There's no reason for anyone to leave this forum, sure we all have options but let's not be rude to others. This is suppose to be fun not stressful, this is where we should enjoy each other thoughts and analysis, good place to meet and get to know ppl and learn. This is a growing site, let's keep gold
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Thank you !!!!
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Euro and GFS look very similar
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accu35 said:
Listen everyone, this is a weather forum and for that we talk about anything and everything about wdather. This is the February thread so let keep the topic on course. There's no reason for anyone to leave this forum, sure we all have options but let's not be rude to others. This is suppose to be fun not stressful, this is where we should enjoy each other thoughts and analysis, good place to meet and get to know ppl and learn. This is a growing site, let's keep gold
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Agree 10000%! I don't want to listen to trolls chasing away good members. I really enjoy this site and the people here. Everyone is going to have a different opinion, and saying someone's ideas are not right by calling them out like that is downright Immature. Let's try to not let these things happen again.
 
What the deuce is going on around here?


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