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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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pcbjr said:
Please do not take this in any way negative --
Watching models is not the end game - models are a tool like indices and, frankly, need to be "blended" with other resources. That's why I don't post maps too often - I get afraid someone may take them as "gospel" and not pay attention to the bigger picture
But - off my soapbox now ...
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10000000% agree. The models used to forecast here lately have been a failure, so at this point, I am saying use them as a broad guide, details may be completely different, and just look at overall systems and patterns because if you focus on cold air or phasing this early then it is just silly. We are within 144 hours of the low being cut off and becoming its own low. Let's get there first, then start figuring where it will go.
 
pcbjr said:
Please do not take this in any way negative --
Watching models is not the end game - models are a tool like indices and, frankly, need to be "blended" with other resources. That's why I don't post maps too often - I get afraid someone may take them as "gospel" and not pay attention to the bigger picture
(For example - I can find one map that looks "great" or "bad" and roll it 48 -72 hours out and get a whole different read - the trend and "staying power" are more instructive (I think)) ...
But - off my soapbox now ...
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Yeah I know just me being pessimistic rough week so far still trying to get over Sunday night as a Falcons fan its seeping over to other things haha
 
Good grief at the bitching over that run lol.

that was a great run with that piece of the PV sitting over the GL .

I'll take the 18z gfs for 1000 of course some wont because it does not give them ten feet of modeled snow
 
Also, the biases of models always need to be taken into account. So, adjustments to model solutions that take into account model biases are the best way to handle them imo. Many sort of do that for SE US storm tracks by assuming they will move NW of the GFS track.
 
I think a greater chance at a winter storm will be between days 13-18. 1. Colder air to work with from the PV and 2. blocking will be in better positions than during the 15th-16th system. Again, some folks *could* get some snow from the 15th-16th system.

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SD said:
e23f42d3e533a4e279424cbb21f24b50.jpg


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no complaints here . give me that look and I'll take my chances with that piece hanging out over the lakes like that
 
SD said:
There are a lot of positives here. Obviously verbatim the run isn't that good but I'm happy to just see some positive things on the models

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Yeah, Shane, if people would recall how much different today's runs are vs just a few days ago they'd realize that this is still a very unstable situation meaning opportunities since we're still some 8-9+ days away from potential mischief. With the combo of indices that we have projected, the strong cold near the Great Lakes, and near peak climo, midmonth could get real interesting in a hurry in the SE. Well, it already is interesting, of course.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, Shane, if people would recall how much different today's runs are vs just a few days ago they'd realize that this is still a very unstable situation meaning opportunities since we're still some 8-9+ days away from potential mischief. With the combo of indices that we have projected, the strong cold near the Great Lakes, and near peak climo, midmonth could get real interesting in a hurry in the SE. Well, it already is interesting, of course.
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Agreed it's really not a bad look. Obviously you can nitpick here and there but give me that established vortex over the lakes and I'll take my chances

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^ Further to that, there are a good number of 18Z GEFS members (~1/3 of them) with a near ideal Miller A track for many in the upper SE ~2/15-6 per Levi's site! I think Charlie will like as that's quite a strong signal this far away! A few days ago there was pretty much no storm even showing up for midmonth. Yes cold air in advance would be needed but that could come in due time via the cold coming down further/more quickly or the low slowing down.
 
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Oh, that storm was showing up on the GFS at least outside of one run, but it was cutting off and just sinking south. Right now it cuts off and moves east after stalling for a while.
 
GaWx said:
^ Further to that, there are a good number of 18Z GEFS (1/3 or more) members with a near ideal Miller A track for many in the upper SE ~2/15-6 per Levi's site! I think Charlie will like! A few days ago there was pretty much no storm even showing up for midmonth. Yes cold air in advance would be needed but that could come in due time via the cold coming down further/more quickly or the low slowing down.
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Holy cow ! yep your right nothing was showing just a few days ago. Need a slower system as you mentioned or a complete phase. Sign me up for this look In mid Feb
81bf47c484f8a2f36235ae2a8ac26e89.jpg


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