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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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GaWx said:
The only exception to the cold/wintry weak to moderate Nino following weak Nina per Webber's table: 1951-2, which was warm though still had a major winter storm at ATL late Feb. Well, 1951-2 DJF averaged +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. So, no wonder it was warm.
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Please!!!!! I can't handle another warm winter...LOL!


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GaWx said:
3 of those 8 wk to mod Nino's following wk Nina per Webber table were in top 10 coldest at ATL: 1904-5, 1939-40, 2009-10.

7 of 10 coldest ATL winters and 3 coldest were wk to mod Nino. But those following weak Nina seem to be the most promising for cold and wintry precip,
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Wasn't the horrible winter of 2012-13 following a weak Nina ?
 
Still 70 here. I have to admit it feels great this evening. Some of my running friends ran the Mississippi River marathon today and they had a horrible time as temps had risen into the lower 80s in Greenville Ms. Sure glad I skipped that one this year
 
JLL1973 said:
Still 70 here. I have to admit it feels great this evening. Some of my running friends ran the Mississippi River marathon today and they had a horrible time as temps had risen into the lower 80s in Greenville Ms. Sure glad I skipped that one this year
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Started out in a sweatshirt on my morning gallop at 6:45 @ 40º and by Noon we're over 80º
Hello Spring
 
GaWx said:
3 of those 8 wk to mod Nino's following wk Nina per Webber table were in top 10 coldest at ATL: 1904-5, 1939-40, 2009-10.

7 of 10 coldest ATL winters and 3 coldest were wk to mod Nino. But those following weak Nina seem to be the most promising for cold and wintry precip,
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Mmmmmmm... Analogs!!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Wasn't the horrible winter of 2012-13 following a weak Nina ?
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How can it be 90 in Amarillo, and only 73 in ATL?? I mean, we are at the same latitude, we should have the same temps!? It's a mystery and how the hell do they get snow in 2 days and we never get snow? I don't understand?? :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
How can it be 90 in Amarillo, and only 73 in ATL?? I mean, we are at the same latitude, we should have the same temps!? It's a mystery and how the hell do they get snow in 2 days and we never get snow? I don't understand?? :(
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Oh how I'd love to go on a political rant on this one :confused:

but to keep peace -- ;)
 
Nino regions 1, 2 and 3 are already showing up warmer SSTs, these are the anomalies.

badd53e8169ae9f8c67d68a48d907644.jpg


SST consolidation NINO, about 27.5c (about 80F)

0e4c03b0cafae5a9f71671f8451deb0c.jpg


I also think there's going to be a pattern change coming late this month into March.

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GaWx said:
The only exception to the cold/wintry weak to moderate Nino following weak Nina per Webber's table: 1951-2, which was warm though still had a major winter storm at ATL late Feb. Well, 1951-2 DJF averaged +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. So, no wonder it was warm.
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Well, that doesn't really explain why those teleconnections behaved the way they did in 1951-52. I'm still trying to figure that out myself...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well, that doesn't really explain why those teleconnections behaved the way they did in 1951-52. I'm still trying to figure that out myself...
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Regardless, that is definitely a good point you bring up larry, certainly worth researching into why the pattern that winter was so much different from other weak-moderate El Ninos following NINAs
 
Tarheel1 said:
Mmmmmmm... Analogs!!
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Well, Mack, at least I didn't harp on the analogs this winter other than when I thought this was going to be neutral negative ENSO rather than weak Niña and thus emphasized much better than normal (little over 50%) chance for a major ZR at ATL! You got a one winter break and that's it, buddy!

The bad or good news depending on how you look at it is this means JB would have a great excuse to go cold and snowy winter again. He is likely going to go cold, regardless, based on his hints about getting closer to solar minimum and just because that's what he likes to do.
 
GaWx said:
Well, Mack, at least I didn't harp on the analogs this winter other than when I thought this was going to be neutral negative ENSO rather than weak Niña and thus emphasized much better than normal (little over 50%) chance for a major ZR at ATL! You got a one winter break and that's it, buddy!

The bad or good news depending on how you look at it is this means JB would have a great excuse to go cold and snowy winter again. He is likely going to go cold, regardless, based on his hints about getting closer to solar minimum and just because that's what he likes to do.
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Thanks for all your research and info, really do appreciate it!! How does this possible developing Nino affect our summer weather?? Mild and wet?? Hopefully, can't be as hot and dry as last??
 
GaWx said:
Well, Mack, at least I didn't harp on the analogs this winter other than when I thought this was going to be neutral negative ENSO rather than weak Niña and thus emphasized much better than normal (little over 50%) chance for a major ZR at ATL! You got a one winter break and that's it, buddy!

The bad or good news depending on how you look at it is this means JB would have a great excuse to go cold and snowy winter again. He is likely going to go cold, regardless, based on his hints about getting closer to solar minimum and just because that's what he likes to do.
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I really thought 4 or 5 years ago, he did say we would have 2-3 dud winters out of the next 5-8 winters? Anybody remember this? If so, he may be right, cause this was a big ol dud!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Thanks for all your research and info, really do appreciate it!! How does this possible developing Nino affect our summer weather?? Mild and wet?? Hopefully, can't be as hot and dry as last??
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YW. I don't have a feel for this right now.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I really thought 4 or 5 years ago, he did say we would have 2-3 dud winters out of the next 5-8 winters? Anybody remember this? If so, he may be right, cause this was a big ol dud!
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He said about 4 years ago that 3 of next 5 winters would be warm. But then he couldn't bring himself to actually forecast those 3 warm winters!
 
I was just reading the outlook from NOAA about the 3-4 week outlook. I'm going to quote what I thought was interesting.
"While ENSO is expected to play little role heading into the beginning of meteorological spring, the MJO is currently active and could influence the extratropical circulation into early March. The MJO enhanced convective envelope is centered over the western Pacific, and eastward propagation into the Western Hemisphere is forecast over the coming week or so. Statistical forecasts based on this predictor yield a cold outcome over much of the CONUS"
 
SnowHusky said:
I was just reading the outlook from NOAA about the 3-4 week outlook. I'm going to quote what I thought was interesting.
"While ENSO is expected to play little role heading into the beginning of meteorological spring, the MJO is currently active and could influence the extratropical circulation into early March. The MJO enhanced convective envelope is centered over the western Pacific, and eastward propagation into the Western Hemisphere is forecast over the coming week or so. Statistical forecasts based on this predictor yield a cold outcome over much of the CONUS"
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Sadly, cold for March , will not get us much snow, IMO! And the weather patterns are not being influenced by the MJO , because it's moving into, or is in, what's supposed to be a cold Eastcoast, the 8,1,2 phases, but QBO, seems to be overriding everything!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Sadly, cold for March , will not get us much snow, IMO! And the weather patterns are not being influenced by the MJO , because it's moving into, or is in, what's supposed to be a cold Eastcoast, the 8,1,2 phases, but QBO, seems to be overriding everything!
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The forecaster that typed that out also said that, "The current suite of ensemble guidance from the CFS and ECMWF are largely at odds with the aforementioned statistical guidance."

Also he says, " the constructed analog based on 200-hPa streamfunction also favors a cold outcome over much of Central North America, but the upstream pattern over the North Pacific is distinct from a canonical MJO response."

Read more here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

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Tarheel1 said:
Sadly, cold for March , will not get us much snow, IMO! And the weather patterns are not being influenced by the MJO , because it's moving into, or is in, what's supposed to be a cold Eastcoast, the 8,1,2 phases, but QBO, seems to be overriding everything!
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Could QBO be somehow the cause of the unusually high amount of Indonesian convection that has been offered by at least one brilliant pro met as an explanation for the current very warm E US winter?

I propose a new index, the Indonesian convection index!
 
GaWx said:
Could QBO be somehow the cause of the unusually high amount of Indonesian convection that has been offered by at least one brilliant pro met as an explanation for the current very warm E US winter?

I propose a new index, the Indonesian convection index!
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If it's the same met I'm thinking, he's been abnormally interested in Australia and some currents around there, I think!? So how's summer analogs? I can't handle another one like last year!
 
Tarheel1 said:
How can it be 90 in Amarillo, and only 73 in ATL?? I mean, we are at the same latitude, we should have the same temps!? It's a mystery and how the hell do they get snow in 2 days and we never get snow? I don't understand?? :(
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As for the snow my guess is they are right next to the Rockies. Although I'm far from a weather expert so don't quote me on that.
 
The stratospheric warming is working its way down into the troposphere leading to height rises in the northern latitudes. It may not get severely cold but a shift of storm tracks, we'll start to see more southerly track of storms late this month into early March. Which, I looked at the jet stream winds out in the PAC for late this month off of the GFS. It does show a split flow out in the PAC. Some storm systems will come along in the southern stream and this also could mean overrunning events. This can also mean phasing with systems if one comes down from the northern stream at the same time as a storm system is coming along from the southern stream.

NOAA has declared that the La Nina conditions are over, we are standing at neutral. I have checked the SSTs anomalies out in the Pacific and they are starting to warm, so we are starting to get into that weak El Nino and there for the La Nina indeed does not exist. I think it is going to be active late month into early March. Some severe weather events and even winter weather events possible. Winter is not over.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I really thought 4 or 5 years ago, he did say we would have 2-3 dud winters out of the next 5-8 winters? Anybody remember this? If so, he may be right, cause this was a big ol dud!
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If that's the case then I guess we've used up all of our dud winters. I guess that means the next few winters will be great ?
 
To really grasp the significance of the contribution from tropical convective anomalies and modulation by the QBO onto sensible weather in the US, it's definitely important to characterize the interactions amongst phenomena such as the QBO and concomitant equatorial convection as two-way and non-linear as opposed to a simple cause and effect. Without delving too much into this canonical chicken-egg argument, the Indonesian convection is largely a result of favorable low frequency ENSO forcing, but there's likely some contribution from the westerly QBO with enhancement of off-equatorial convection (via increasing static stability as the lower-mid stratosphere and upper troposphere warms beneath a descending westerly QBO regime (as is suggested by thermal wind relationships)), mixed rossby gravity wave activity, and thus the australasia monsoon circulation. The invigorated monsoon circulation reflects back onto the observed Indonesian convective anomalies and creates a self-sustaining, positive feedback loop and further augments the Maritime Continent convection. This predominant regime w/ higher than normal E Hem convection has started to breakdown of late due to the ongoing MJO pulse (which as I explained a week or so ago, was excited primarily due to the mid-latitude stratospheric warming event with a lower frequency boost from the seasonal cycle) it may continue to progressively modify if this MJO pulse is able to kickstart legitimate changes in the equatorial pacific as we head towards the equinox...
 
Webberweather53 said:
To really grasp the significance of the contribution from tropical convective anomalies and modulation by the QBO onto sensible weather in the US, it's definitely important to characterize the interactions amongst phenomena such as the QBO and concomitant equatorial convection as two-way and non-linear as opposed to a simple cause and effect. Without delving too much into this canonical chicken-egg argument, the Indonesian convection is largely a result of favorable low frequency ENSO forcing, but there's likely some contribution from the westerly QBO with enhancement of off-equatorial convection (via increasing static stability as the lower-mid stratosphere and upper troposphere warms beneath a descending westerly QBO regime (as is suggested by thermal wind relationships)), mixed rossby gravity wave activity, and thus the australasia monsoon circulation. The invigorated monsoon circulation reflects back onto the observed Indonesian convective anomalies and creates a self-sustaining, positive feedback loop and further augments the Maritime Continent convection. This predominant regime w/ higher than normal E Hem convection has started to breakdown of late due to the ongoing MJO pulse (which as I explained a week or so ago, was excited primarily due to the mid-latitude stratospheric warming event with a lower frequency boost from the seasonal cycle) it may continue to progressively modify if this MJO pulse is able to kickstart legitimate changes in the equatorial pacific as we head towards the equinox...
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If that means a wet pattern, that'll be great!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Thank you for your contributions Webber. I have no idea what you said but I'm sure it was brilliant.
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Thanks! To briefly summarize the main points from what I just said...
a) The QBO and Indonesian convective anomalies are coupled, and their interactions should be viewed as such instead of cause-and-effect
b) The observed higher than normal Indonesian convection is primarily due to ENSO, but the westerly QBO is significantly contributing.
c) The MJO initiated by the recent sudden stratospheric warming event may have jump started a series of processes and reactions that could cascade into completely disintegrating the above normal Indonesian convection that's been observed for most of this winter. We really need to closely monitor these changes going forward, because we're at the time of the year where ENSO is more responsive to higher frequency variability like the MJO. The point I'm really trying to get across here is that the MJO tends to have the most significant effect on ENSO at this time of the year, in and around the Northern Hemisphere's spring equinox.
 
If the QBO is the most driver and causing complications with everything else and when this troposphere warming takes place in the lower latitudes this will release the complications and make the pattern flip into more of a favorable El Nino pattern. When this pattern change occurs, I do think that the east won't be experiencing much above-normal temps late this month into early March. The reason why I think this is becuase it's a transition. So, with the east being so warm for the most of this winter, the cold we've been wanting all winter will make an appearance late this month into early March. It may not be 30+ degrees below normal or nothing like that though. But we'll just have to see about that cause there are complications going on with the pattern. The temp anomalies may not be that accurate right now but they will be once the pattern transition occurs or shorty before it occurs.

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GaWx said:
Could QBO be somehow the cause of the unusually high amount of Indonesian convection that has been offered by at least one brilliant pro met as an explanation for the current very warm E US winter?

I propose a new index, the Indonesian convection index!
Click to expand...
I'm almost to the point of believing it's not the indices or teleconnections anymore, and that the weather is just going to do what it wants to.
Insert meme "Whatever, I'll do what I want" LOL
 
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