Jon
Member
18z GFS has the cutoff low closed off much earlier than any modeling so far. Cuts off at 90 hours much more south and west. 12z Para cut off over the 4 corners region at hour 120.
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Pattern February Discussion Part II
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS operational 2mT 168 HR forecast bias January 2017 & the first 7 days of February... The GFS actually had a warm bias in the SE US in January while thus far in Feb it's been verifying way too cold @/around 168 HR.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Oh hi I see you polar vortex.
Jon
Member
This run not likely to be much different than the 18z. By 156 hours the ULL is no longer cutoff, 18z held it until 2/15 00z or 174 hours. Timing as far as east movement virtually identical to 18z at 165 hours. We need this ULL hanging back and spinning around much longer (and stronger) like the para in order to allow the confluence/PV to swing in. What you see swinging in at 132 hours on the 00z isn't the PV.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This run starts a bit colder but I think this is going to be another Apps Runner.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
LOL the gfs is trying. Looking like it's gonna be a big rainmaker with a perfect track
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Or maybe we're about to see a great track without the cold trolol.
The PV is being held back than 18z. On the 18z you could see the edge of the vortex over eastern Canada at 12z Wed. No vortex there yet at 12z Wed on 0z. The cold will come in after the ULL on this run.
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Jon
Member
At 177hr it closes off over central TX, that's good and different than the 18z. But yeah, started jogging east way too soon, not going to cut it.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Watching this track kinda makes me fun like I did Sunday night.
Storm5
Member
here comes the NS a tick late
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
What this setup favors is an Apps Runner but this shortwave sure is trying hard to not run so far.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
It's an apps runner like you said and it's gonna destroy the MA/NE. Rich get richer
GeorgiaGirl
Member
There it is. The low caved and is going to run after it looked like it might slide.
Storm5
Member
what a fun setup this is gonna be
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Storm5
Member
why in the world would anyone give up on a day 8-9 system lol.
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