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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Jon said:
Thought the run would be a bit better, looks like we'll have to watch the light moisture ride the 850mb 0c line throughout the event and enjoy our cool rain. What winter?


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FIXED LOL
 
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Jon said:
Yep this storm never slowed down enough, only when it spun around on the west coast for a couple of runs...borderline 850mb temps with moisture moving in from 12-18z isn't going to work.


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Looked like for a second the initial energy was going to half-way try and get into the Northern Branch and then leave a robust piece to possibly cut back off before instead of shearing.

Broke my heart to see it was just a good looking frame and then by the next, the result was imminent. I'm not confident in this at all anymore. I was hoping something would have slowed/left behind to get the Northern fringes of precip at least.
 
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pcbjr said:
levity and music - we need it! makes weather and other things taste better :confused:
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How about another one bites the dust!? Perfect for this storm and winter!
 
Probably worth mentioning the GFS has been trending slower & deeper w/ this negatively tilted cut off upper level trough on the front edge of an oncoming wave packet in the past few days. Yikes...
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Webberweather53 said:
Probably worth mentioning the GFS has been trending slower & deeper w/ this negatively tilted cut off upper level trough on the front edge of an oncoming wave packet in the past few days. Yikes...
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Ouch and you continue to rightfully scare me! Thanks Webb - spot on as always.
Now - please go listen to some music - we've got a bad moon on the rise - Best, Phil
 
And there's the major EC storm showing up again. The two pieces phases (one in northern stream and another in southern stream) and that's what is creating this major storm. The two pieces will be very important to watch. If the phase occurs further south, look out!

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That is the time period of when the PAC jet has a split flow. It will be very warm before this EC storm occurs, if it does occur. If the phase occurs further south, this storm will be an EC snowstorm. It actually does turn into a snowstorm on the back side. Looks like maybe near blizzard conditions for KY, E TN, and western NC.

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SnowHusky said:
That is the time period of when the PAC jet has a split flow. It will be very warm before this EC storm occurs, if it does occur. If the phase occurs further south, this storm will be an EC snowstorm. It actually does turn into a snowstorm on the back side. Looks like maybe near blizzard conditions for KY, E TN, and western NC.

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hope you're right - but cold is illusory and fleeting, at best - i'll give you 10 to 1 on wicked
 
pcbjr said:
hope you're right - but cold is illusory and fleeting, at best - i'll give you 10 to 1 on wicked
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What could possibly go wrong with a Feb 24-26th storm in this winter!? That's already rain on the models!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
What could possibly go wrong with a Feb 24-26th storm in this winter!? That's already rain on the models!?
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It turns to snow on back side of low. It's pulling down cold, cold air up at 850. As the low pulls to the NE temps fall in the 20s and 30s. If the phase occurs further south, the colder air will come in further south. A strong low like that will pull down cold temps.

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SnowHusky said:
It turns to snow on back side of low. It's pulling down cold, cold air up at 850. As the low pulls to the NE temps fall in the 20s and 30s. If the phase occurs further south, the colder air will come in further south. A strong low like that will pull down cold temps.

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I would be much more excited if the trough were further to the west..
 
I'm excited for that time period. If everything comes together as I'm thinking, that storm will be a genuine east coast snowstorm, even for the SE. I'm excited about it cause I've always wanted a storm like that to show up and to track it. The GFS has been hinting at that major EC storm for a while now. The GFS-Para is showing the major EC storm as well.

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Warmest ATL DJF

1) 1889-90 avg 54.3

2) 1879-80 avg 52.4

3) 1931-2 avg 51.9

ATL is pretty close to locking up at least the 4th warmest winter behind the 3 that are listed. However, they will have a chance to pass #3 and a small chance to pass #2 and end up with the 3rd or possibly even 2nd warmest DJF on record! They are currently near 51.0, which is 7 above normal and close to the normal for SAV!
 
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I spent a fair amount of time off the pc today. You know outside.
With the way modeling has been looking, I do expect a sleet/ice storm for some in the deeper south areas before the end of Winter. Northern areas will see a likely ip/snow event too.
 
Well it may be mild the rest of the winter, but I have seen some pretty surprising winters over the years. Speaking of it being very warm before that storm......I remember in February 1979 we got a big snowstorm around mid month. On that Friday afternoon we were in short sleeve shirts probably around 65 degrees, it began snowing on Saturday afternoon and on Sunday.....it was around 15 degrees all day long with heavy snow and sleet. And that was in Greenwood, SC. It was incredible. Would be nice to see 50 degrees colder two days later, than to see 50 degrees warmer.
 
Bad mslp maps right now, but it's sad the navgem is likely on par with Euro along with Canadian, JMA, etc. While the GFS/Para GFS is further South with the low track.
 
Shawn said:
I spent a fair amount of time off the pc today. You know outside.
With the way modeling has been looking, I do expect a sleet/ice storm for some in the deeper south areas before the end of Winter. Northern areas will see a likely ip/snow event too.
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I agree. I still think there is time for sure
 
tonysc said:
Well it may be mild the rest of the winter, but I have seen some pretty surprising winters over the years. Speaking of it being very warm before that storm......I remember in February 1979 we got a big snowstorm around mid month. On that Friday afternoon we were in short sleeve shirts probably around 65 degrees, it began snowing on Saturday afternoon and on Sunday.....it was around 15 degrees all day long with heavy snow and sleet. And that was in Greenwood, SC. It was incredible. Would be nice to see 50 degrees colder two days later, than to see 50 degrees warmer.
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February 17-19 1979 NC Snowmap.png
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http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<1542:TPDSOF>2.0.CO;2
 
The Euro and EPS are showing a Gulf feature and a feature coming out of the SW. They are close at phasing during the 22nd. I'm really excited for that time period, I am expecially excited now, that the Euro and it's ensemble is on board of possibly something significant. The EPS continues to show colder air around the 25th or so. Again, if the phase occurs, it will get much colder before the 25th.

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Looks like LC has thrown in the towel, for the most part:

The chances for meaningful winter storms and cold intrusions in the U.S. looks to decline markedly after February 17. Numerical models are in general agreement now on either a split flow (characteristic of El Nino episodes) or a semizonal flow with embedded storms. But either way, there is no mechanism to bring cold air from Canada into the U.S. So the "winter cancel" birds should be chirping loudly and constantly, correct?

It just is not that simple. Analog forecasts, which have called the recent Great Lakes/Northeast storms quite well, and the weekly prediction series of the CFS and ECMWF models are hinting at a "one last chance" set-up east of the Rocky Mountains. I suspect this works in tandem with El Nino climatology, since most of the schemes seem to be predicting a decidedly positive ENSO episode this spring and summer. But having seen how these very same equations have botched Pacific Basin SST temperature outlooks (evidence the neutral signature in sector 3.4), I am very wary of accepting a colder outline in early to middle March. More than likely the warmer pattern will stick around through the end of February. And it is possible that a cold intrusion or two may sweep through the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard before March 15.

But before you embrace any chances for lasting cold, think about how January and February have progressed. Record warmth has been a constant in the south central U.S., and Arctic blasts never last more than 48 hours before either giving way to warmer values or being replaced by other transient cold pools. On the idea that we have a neutral/positive ENSO environment, I strongly suspect that our concerns for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from TX and OK through the Old South and Mid-Atlantic states will be growing. With that alignment, a stable but relatively mild temperature array will occupy the northern half of the country.

Bottom line: most of what I see out there calls for springlike weather in the last week of February and first two weeks of March. But perhaps I could be surprised.
 
The 06z GFS still has the EC storm, I'm not going after specifics of p-type or temps right now. I checked the 10m wind gusts on the GFS and they continue to show up to 30-40kt (35mph-46mph) winds along the east during that storm. I wanted to check the wind gust cause the GFS continues to show this EC storm with a strong pressure gradient.

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As mentioned, ATL is pretty close to locking up at least its 4th warmest DJF with it now at 51;

1) 1889-90 avg 54.3

2) 1879-80 avg 52.4

3) 1931-2 avg 51.9

The good news for winter lovers is that two of these three winters had a cold March, 1890 and 1932. Per Webber's table, 1889-90 was moderate La Niña while 1931-2 was neutral negative. So, 2016-7 is between those with its weak Niña.

1. 1890: SAV's coldest in NDJF was only down to 29. Yet, they had 3 26's in March with one as late as 3/16! They averaged 45 3/1-9, which is about 5 below the normal for JAN! They even had a very rare March T of SN on 3/2!

ATL's coldest in NDJF was 23. But in March, their coldest was 17 (3/2) and they even had 18 as late as 3/16!! They had a high of only 30 on 3/2.

2. 1932: SAV's coldest in NDJF was only down to 35! Yet, they had 4 freezes and a coldest of 24 on 3/10! The period 3/7-15 averaged near 42, which is about 8 below their JAN normal and 1 below ATL's JAN normal!

ATL's coldest during NDJF was only down to 26. So, SAV's 24 in March was colder than any ATL low in NDJF! ATL had not even had a T of snow in NDJF. Yet, they had not one but two measurable snows in March. Their coldest low was 15 and their coldest high would do most winters proud with a 28!

Moral of the story: don't at all give up until mid March based on two of these 3 very warm winters.
 
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Larry, I'm not really sure a cold March does Atlanta any good. Do you know what the temps were like in March 1993 ? I saw 10 inches of snow that month but don't recall if it was AN or BN for temps.
 
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