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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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This pattern just after the 20th has definitely been giving me a lot of flashbacks lately to the severe wx outbreak last month in GA & AL... We're almost to that time of the year where deep neutral-negatively tilted upper level lows/troughs need to be monitored closely for the production of severe weather and tornadoes in the SE US. Severe wx is likely a bigger concern here (if at all), at least compared to wintry wx...
eps_z500a_noram_53.png

Although I usually don't like to post operational models this far in advance, this solution is not too outlandish given how stupid strong the Pacific jet is going to be the next few weeks. 150-160 KT upper level jet streak embedded within the subtropical jet coming into view over TX & OK. Yea...

eps_uv200_c_noram_53.png
 
Jon said:
No good trends overnight dispite the improved low location, it's still moving in too early, even for NC...its trending away from a phase and there's likely not going to be as deep if s trough to even make a phase work for NC. The last 5 runs of the GFS are speeding up the ULL ejection. Cold hasn't been on our side this year so I'm not expecting it to magically show up...need to take our chances with slowing this storm down to move in at precisely the 850mb minimum...even then we'd deal with mixing issues, WAA, all the good stuff.


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I figure we will end up with something like the 6z GFS/0z Euro where the low slides by in good position but we sit around 38-44 with rain and an 850 of +2. Then we all run to the window as the low gets off the coast and the radar echos start to pull away and hope that maybe we end as 27 snow flakes
 
There is more interaction with the northern stream with the ULL than 06z. Maybe it will get held back some than 06z. If it does, this is going to be a colder run.

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ULL is a little SW of 6z at 126. Everything else looks about the same.
 
Once we get to about 150, we'll know where we stand...whether we get rain at 49 or rain at 38.
 
Yup, sure enough it is being held back some to the SW than 06z. Is the low going to be a Gulf low with colder air to the north? We'll find out

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Still a little SW of 6z at 150. Northern stream pressing a little farther south in the NE. Looks like the "rain at 38" scenario will play out.
 
The trough to the north needs to be further west.

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A little slower still at 168. Upper pattern looks like it would allow for an ever so slightly colder solution than 6z...but we'll see.
 
Wow, perfect track of low and no damn cold air. NE coastal NC may do good on this run.

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