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Pattern February Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's good to see the models all see something out there at this point. If everything sees it, some storm should happen somewhere. Just need that cold to be close enough, but not too intense.
RollTide18
Member
just remember if this works out, I called it first lol jk. Not a bad look
Yeah, interesting time period
Storm5
Member
actually Larry was first but we will throw you in there if you want loljust remember if this works out, I called it first lol jk. Not a bad look
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RollTide18
Member
with the 540, this could easily be a rain to snow situation. Need more cold!!
Definitely need more cold, surface temps in the 40s for most of AL
GeorgiaGirl
Member
As I said, this has shown during this time period for a while but the difference is in earlier runs this was being buried in Mexico. So I think the idea of a storm was picked up but who knows on the details. Could be in Mexico, could just end up being a MA/NE special.
accu35
Member
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Oh yeah forgot about Larry lol. Give him credit he deserves it.
pcbjr
Member
No - not saying that - but I'm scratching my head since by and large temps have not acted like one might expect given varying other set-ups this winter. I've really looked hard (and obviously I pay a lot of attention to teleconnections) and am a present loss to see what gets the NS into play down here any time soon; the players are surely at the table but something seems to have (has had anyway) thrown grit in the gearbox
Storm5
Member
gonna be hard to get too far north with the blocking and 50/50 in place. As met said earlier , this is a situation that could actually trend south with the blocking showing
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pcbjr
Member
although:
whatalife
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
Not posting pictures just to post pictures, but this sorta illustrates the head scratching (at least from this end of the world) - seems a -NAO, -AO and what looks to be a -EPO don't/won't hold a grip - but alas, these are just models and maybe things will behave, finally, like they are "supposed" to
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Maybe the Pacific Ocean will behave next winter like it did for the two winters before last winter...
Serious question here. If the pacific was so favorable in the 2014-15 winter, why did Atlanta get shut out ? What was it that went wrong for Atlanta that winter ?
Euro has the system also it's just a cutter and would likely be some severe with it.....
Not your typical cutter though as it hits the wall of blocking and then heads due east off the coast around the Delmarva region, I still think this ends up further south
Not your typical cutter though as it hits the wall of blocking and then heads due east off the coast around the Delmarva region, I still think this ends up further south
Storm5
Member
that's good , if it showed any wintry it would fail .
I'm really interested in the day 8-10 period . just need a little after NS
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Lol exactly.... I did go back and edit my post as it's not your typical cutter
Storm5
Member
I agree and that run shows how this is gonna have trouble getting too far north as you pointed out
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Also I think the Euro is faster with the energy ejecting out which allows it to get further north initially.... so I don't know we're doing something like threading the needle right? Lol always!
That system showing up mid month was colder than 6z as it pushes off the coast and the track of low is further south. I'm not going to buy anything from the GFS without ensemble support or Euro this time. That dang gum GFS will put you in a model situation lol.
By the way, I'm known as SnowHusky, thanks Shawn for changing it for me. I like snow and husky dogs because their cold climate dogs that likes snow as much as me.
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By the way, I'm known as SnowHusky, thanks Shawn for changing it for me. I like snow and husky dogs because their cold climate dogs that likes snow as much as me.
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pcbjr
Member
JB tweeted this: Rare high amplitude phase 8 MJO for Feb being forecasted only 3 times last 40 years.. 1999,1988,1978
Went back and did composites for Feb of each of those three years; 1999 was warm (the month before - Jan - was also very warm, if not a "torch"), 1998 was cool (preceding Jan was very cool), 1978 was cold (as was the preceding Jan) (won't hog up a page showing all those maps LOL). Point being that even a strong Ph8 MJO doesn't always have the right mojo
Went back and did composites for Feb of each of those three years; 1999 was warm (the month before - Jan - was also very warm, if not a "torch"), 1998 was cool (preceding Jan was very cool), 1978 was cold (as was the preceding Jan) (won't hog up a page showing all those maps LOL). Point being that even a strong Ph8 MJO doesn't always have the right mojo
We got our only snow in the 98-99 winter in late Feb, even though it was just a very light dusting.
pcbjr
Member
it only takes one minor miracle :~)
but the point being - one index doesn't necessarily carry the day (and frankly i can't go search now the other indices for Feb of those 3 years!!)
pcbjr
Member
the whole freakin' internet is today ....
Storm5's computer is from 1980 and he didn't shrink his massive cam. But, ill post the youtube link here soon and i'm sure he will make a thread somewhere too.
Not to get too far off topic (wait too late lol) but we've noticed our internet is extremely slow here at work today as well. Funny I've heard that from many locations......hmmm
BTW check your PM
1999 probably didn't feature a tanking AO and a huge spike in the PNA either. I would be shocked if that didn't produce some type of system for some of us.
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Storm5
Member
Haha yeah yeah . no more work computers that's for sure lol. and yes I cut his face off . oh well
Storm5
Member
whatalife
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Another day, another failed high. Only got up to 54 before the rain. Doubt we will get to 61. Strange how it is chilly up here and almost 10 degrees higher 20 miles south.
Same here. We have missed the forecast the past three days.
Saturday: F: 52 A: 47
Sunday: F: 57 A: 50
Today: F: 59 A: 54
Currently 50.8 with mist/fog. I'm not mad lol. Looks like we'll warm up finally tomorrow though.
I am in Douglasville currently and its 68.8 degrees here. Meanwhile, 45 miles North in Cherokee at home its 50.8. Amazing weather we have sometimes across North Georgia. Always amazes me
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hmm, this looks familiar...
Definitely having flashbacks to that ULL that resulted in the high risk of severe wx in parts of GA & FL a few weeks ago esp given the EPS forecasts a few weeks in advance looked very similar wrt placement of large-scale planetary waves. I personally wondered what would have happened if we had that setup a month later in the midst of better severe wx climo...
Definitely having flashbacks to that ULL that resulted in the high risk of severe wx in parts of GA & FL a few weeks ago esp given the EPS forecasts a few weeks in advance looked very similar wrt placement of large-scale planetary waves. I personally wondered what would have happened if we had that setup a month later in the midst of better severe wx climo...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Fortunately, it doesn't look as strong as the last event. Hopefully it doesn't go the way of severe weather again.
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