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Wintry February 6th-7th

kstrickland0823 said:
Not to sound crazy (but I am!) do the weather apps on phones not pick up on things?
I look at 4 different ones each morning and they all say something different. But during this “possible storm” it’s showing our temps ranging from 50-54 during the day and 33-34 at night. Not sure how it could snow/sleet with those temps. But every model we are also just on the edge of the blue. We’ve missed out on all the prior systems other than a stray flurry or quick coating that melted within the hour. Trying not to get my hopes up but at the same time, I’m dying inside from snow drought! Sorry this was just coming from a small town country girl who generally just sits in the background and reads the comments!

**edit** MOST models have us in blue. NAM doesn’t but GFS, EURO, and RGEM do.

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Most, if not all, weather forecast apps are commonly known as "crap apps" as far as forecasts beyond 2 or 3 days. I believe they are generated by deterministic model output, which as we know, is highly unreliable beyond 3-5 days. I think some of these apps blend historic climatology into their products beyond day 7 so it's really off most of the time from reality. Just stick around here and these nerds will figure it out for you. :p
 
Lickwx said:
I would hope my Mets didn’t make forecasts based on what they actually want to happen.
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I personally think it’s more experience with the region that anything. That being said, I was a little surprised this morning to read in GSP’s discussion that they were favoring the GFS over the NAM for thermals. Typically they do the opposite once a system is inside 48 hrs.
 
Chazwin said:
I personally think it’s more experience with the region that anything. That being said, I was a little surprised this morning to read in GSP’s discussion that they were favoring the GFS over the NAM for thermals. Typically they do the opposite once a system is inside 48 hrs.
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I think most just favor whatever scenario shows the less snow.
 
neelsamb said:
Lol Nitz posted the SREF which is the one model that shows not a whole lot for us. I sort of understand the pessimism but at this point it seems like they’re just looking at the model they want to see happen and discarding everything else
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And they never use the SREF when it’s snowy
 
If you live outside of the mountains and your location is under several inches of clown-map snow, you'll have to suffer through three more model cycles (12Z. 18Z, 0Z) before the NWS becomes more bullish--IF EVEN THEN.
 
neelsamb said:
Lol Nitz posted the SREF which is the one model that shows not a whole lot for us. I sort of understand the pessimism but at this point it seems like they’re just looking at the model they want to see happen and discarding everything else
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The fact they're using a garbage model that changes each run will come back to bite them the moment a new run comes out. All they've got against them is the dry biased HRRR and the SREF. They've not even got the SREF for Gainesville as it shows a mean of over an inch. Far more than nothing outside the mountains.
 
Rain Cold said:
Didn't the GFS and RGEM have like 9 inch totals across portions of the Triad with the last event? There were some hefty totals before the event being spit out by various models, and most places ended up with not very much.

Outside of the mountains and the far western and northwestern areas, it's going to be hard to see much accumulating snow here.
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I got 5..... but your point still rings true.
 
Finally something to Track. I almost gave up on winter. Like mentioned above I would like for this to trend more south but I will take anything at this point.
 
I don’t like that the 12z RGEM is trying to get my hopes up.? It’s still borderline for me here, but it’s not that bad, enough to keep me mildly interested. It really reminds me too much what happened this month last year so the bar is already set near the ground.?
 
Bsud said:
But more soundings in support of snow than not

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Sorry my comment wasn't specific to this one event, it was more of a general statement of what I've seen many times and mets, especially NWS mets are going to look at much more than the snow maps (soundings, climo, high placement, slp track, etc). Anyway I really hope you and many score big time and all those offices have to change their tune over the next 24 hrs.
 
KyloG said:
This was the RGEM for the last event compared to what happened...fairly solid. The 6z run looked good for the 85 corridor...had snow all the way down into Atlanta.



View attachment 71577




6z RGEM
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Worth noting that first map is at a 33 hour lead time, the one for this storm is all 84 hours out. Granted, it does have snow breaking out as soon as 40 hours
 
Poimen said:
If you live outside of the mountains and your location is under several inches of clown-map snow, you'll have to suffer through three more model cycles (12Z. 18Z, 0Z) before the NWS becomes more bullish--IF EVEN THEN.
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NWS has put us under two winter weather advisory's and one winter storm wanting for a dusting of snow so far. Never care what they have to say
 
Well, maybe this will be a nice little token surprise event for MBY. Overnight got real and I did not expect it at all. All the clown maps are likely way over done as usual. Like Webb introduced me to, I like the positive snow depth map from the NAM 3K to give me a better understanding of real accumulations.

At this point I'll take a true dusting/car topper and bask in all its glory if I can get it.

1612533496909.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC seems to be really against the idea of accumulations rn. Based on the runs its really too close to tell. I think that by the end of today we will know if we are closer to a heavy snow event or a quick burst then rain for at least the north metro.
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Yeah, they actually kicked my low temp for tomorrow night up from 32 to 36! ?
 
Glad to see the NAM come into more agreement at 06z. Strongly considering heading to GSO for this one now (nice that it’s on a weekend). I feel a lot more confident about seeing a couple inches of snow there than here.

We’ll see what 12z does soon enough. Though some of the modeling looks decent, you still have to be concerned outside the mountains. Amounts are almost certainly overdone, at least.
 
NCSNOW said:
They eitheir are linked in to NWS data output or Most likely GFS/Buffkit. Noticed this myself and 90% of public gets their forecast from these apps. They will be in for a nice suprise latter todday when it changes and catches up.
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Thank you for answering me and explaining a little bit! I know we shouldn’t expect anything much here because I’m in southern Chatham County and we rarely cash in on anything! I just want to see some snow this year that last at least a day so we can get out with the kiddos and have fun! I would love a nice surprise to happen at least once! I know my kids think I’m crazy when I talk about the Jan 2000 snow coming out of no where!


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Well the NAM is a lot more realistic front in snow to sleet to rain. Upstate north Georgia. NAM has a warm nose


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Bsud said:
But more soundings in support of snow than not

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Yeah... this is what kinda gave me a bit of pause this morning reading the discussion from GSP. My sounding is pretty solidly snow here for most of the event, yet there is no mention of any snow in the point forecast.
 
lovely
ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 
Stout warm nose comes in on the NAM and chances are it arrives earlier than modeled. Just keep that in mind, along with the other variables.
 
Poimen said:
Stout warm nose comes in on the NAM and chances are it arrives earlier than modeled. Just keep that in mind, along with the other variables.
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It was high up there in the air yesterday instead of its normal elevation. Is that still the case today?
 
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