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Wintry February 6th-7th

That dang warm nose even gets into the mountains snow to sleet. Don’t like this amped up storm


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The timing of the NAM is few hours sooner then Gfs


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The rich get richer. I wish I lived in Roanoke, haha. Definitely hoping the NAM is too amped, but I don’t have a ton of faith. It’s amazing MBY went from no precip at all yesterday to being in the rain/sleet zone now. We suck at winter.

I would say Roanoke and SW VA in general looks like the best place to be right now. As long as this doesn’t trend flatter, they’re probably getting rocked.
 
superjames1992 said:
The rich get richer. I wish I lived in Roanoke, haha. Definitely hoping the NAM is too amped, but I don’t have a ton of faith. It’s amazing MBY went from no precip at all yesterday to being in the rain/sleet zone now. We suck at winter.

I would say Roanoke and SW VA in general looks like the best place to be right now. As long as this doesn’t trend flatter, they’re probably getting rocked.
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Yeah I’m feeling pretty confident right now. I believe the next system yall will get it. Y’all deserve it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These refreezing layers are impressive, pretty much all sleet soundings View attachment 71242View attachment 71243
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Yeah, the sub-freezing layer below the 700-800 mb is very deep, I think there’s more sleet on the 18z NAM than the clown indicates. A quick look looks like a lot of 32-33 with sleet for a majority of the storm outside the mountains to me?
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, the sub-freezing layer above the 700-800 mb is very deep, I think there’s more sleet on the 18z NAM than the clown indicates. A quick look looks like a lot of 32-33 with sleet for a majority of the storm outside the mountains to me?
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Yep, lots of IP for pretty much the whole event, it’s been a while since I’ve seen a freezing layer that deep in a setup
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, lots of IP for pretty much the whole event, it’s been a while since I’ve seen a freezing layer that deep in a setup
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It’s been a while since we had a majority sleet storm (January 2016?). Maybe this will be it.

I could possibly chase this to my parents’ place in Greensboro. Definitely considering it, we’ll see. But if it’s just going to be sleet there, too, I’m not sure it’s worth it.
 
NAM 3km soundings before the event are extremely supportive of sleet/snow at the onset, if the nam 3km isn’t being to cold (which is possible) then there could be a burst of snow/IP for 85 north at the very start, the farther north you are the less influence From the warm nose /slower the warm nose Changes things over 81BDA543-40DB-4611-8FE5-7A490DD2DB63.png
Once the warm nose kicks off into high gear that deep refreezing layer looks pretty impressive 0DF3CB8C-10F2-48BC-96E3-B2794E0E8B86.png27FA2108-1086-401C-A6C4-16708695576B.png
 
The ICON was a nice shift eastward toward the NW Piedmont with the rain/snow line. I don't know, I'm just kinda not interested due to a lack of low level cold and a couple of duds so far this season. If this one is like the others, prepare to be underwhelmed by go-time.
 
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