Wintry February 6th-7th

[mbway091]

My girlfriend and I are trying to move into a new place this weekend so I don't even want any snow this time. I guess that means it's going to be a blizzard.

 

[LukeBarrette]

12z vs 18z RGEM trend is hilarious?

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Broken024]

View attachment 71259View attachment 71260

Union county jackpot

 

[superjames1992]

The RGEM is suddenly onboard with there being a storm now. Huge jump from 12z, damn.

 

[Stormlover]

love this...over 6 for my backyard per the nam

 

[Jessy89]

And what the GFS doing


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[Jessy89]

Wow the GFS is colder and snowy the low is further south. Then it is on the NAM


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[Myfrotho704_]

---- ------------ damn ----

 

[Jessy89]

Big run this will work


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[BufordWX]

GFS really likes that little slot of snow here on Saturday. Evaporative cooling?

 

[KyloG]

That is a nice piece of energy. To bad everything can’t shift 50-100 miles East.

 

[superjames1992]

18z GFS is more amped than 12z. Looks like snow to rain for NC outside the mountains.

Looks like for the RDU area it drops around a half inch of liquid before changing over. It doesn’t have the potent warm nose above 800 mb the NAM has, which means it’s probably wrong.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sucks that the NAM is sniffing out a warm nose already, that just gives so much pause

 

[superjames1992]

Sucks that the NAM is sniffing out a warm nose already, that just gives so much pause

Yes, the NAM is usually very good at sniffing these out, so we should pay heed to it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yes, the NAM is usually very good at sniffing these out, so we should pay heed to it.

Frick the nam lmao it’s so hard to get NAMed nowadays, but no it seems like the GFS has the peice more East which counteracted in a way

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I’ve been seeing this I’m telling y’all any precip that’s heavy will fall all sloppy snow .. we will get long range HRRR’d soon enough ... where the heavy rates are so will the rain snow line be

 

[Snownut]

Sat night storm just keeps looking better and better for Upstate and NC. Much more agreement on winter weather between the models.

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[Nomanslandva]

From BBurg AFD.
Latest model
runs have brought most global models into better agreement with a
more northward/westward track. This means that the possibility of
snow has been reintroduced into our forecast area, especially
towards the Piedmont. Ensemble guidance indicates high probability
of this being a lower impact system. QPF is around 0.10-0.25" for
Saturday night and Sunday morning, and with temperature profiles
indicating the event begins as rain and turns over to snow later
Saturday night, not all of that will be converted to snow.

Given the recent volatile nature deterministic models have displayed
around Saturday night`s weather, generally staying conservative on
this forecast and putting more weight into ensemble/probabilistic
guidance. If the next few runs continue to narrow towards this
northerly solution, then will give them more consideration in future
forecasts. If they continue to flip flop, then will continue to
stick with ensemble guidance.

I am still worried about more NW trend but at least the shifts at 18z have not been huge like at 12z.