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Wintry February 6th-7th

NorthGaWinter4 said:
Good call. I think you could include north Forsyth in 1-2”
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I agree. It all depends on how long we can keep it as snow. I think there's a chance it bust high. We have seen it happen before in events like these. All depends on timing and thermals. I think a lot of people will see snow at 37-38 degrees and then the column will crash and cool to 32-34
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m betting on the warm nose arriving much quicker then modeled meaning quicker transitioning to IP/rain for those outside the mountains
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That’s usually a pretty safe bet. Some of these soundings though look like an absolute sleet fest a lot of CLT metro
 
packfan98 said:
NW trend so far on the 12z suite. Always bet the streak. Looks good to be marginal with a dusting to 1/2” for most areas outside the mountains. Keeping my fingers crossed for something more significant next week.
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Only thing is it seems like some areas could stay sleet for quite a while after changing over from snow given the cold layer below 750 mb looks pretty stout, especially across the NW Piedmont.
 
winterwx said:
first call map for my area View attachment 71609
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Based on the current modeling, I'd add more to the East side down the mountains and less on the west side and use that as my call map. However for me I'd add some sleet totals down the I-85 corridor as indicated by soundings as well.
 
I really just think these things overpreform there’s always more cold air then we think I think if anything we stay sleet for a while longer than expected .. I do believe everyone will start as snow but how quickly does it change over is the question... rates will also be key here .. if u can stay under the heavy rates you might be lucky at sneaking in a lollipop!
 
Jon said:
Their AFD sounds good to me. The thermal profile isn’t good, if you look at the 3km NAM there’s a big warm nose for Central NC. The surface isn’t cold enough for freezing rain, so their call for trace to a mix is correct I think. Don’t expect to get much out of this. It’s also followed by heavy rain so even if it starts as snow or a mix, it won’t end that way. NW Piedmont is another story though and they need to watch it.

Of course thinks can change and RDU is always on the line, but I’m sure the hrrr will be similar.
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Thank you. A sense of rationality here.

2-3 times now this year we've built up a great trend inside 100 hours only to reverse course the last 12-24. at 36 hours the Temps are Marginal at best, but really they are 33 and up.

As of now, no one will accumulate 4-6" of snow in this event. These Accumulation maps are just bad.
 
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smast16 said:
Thank you. A sense of rationality here.

2-3 times now this year we've built up a great trend inside 100 hours only to reverse course the last 12-24. at 36 hours the Temps are Marginal at best, but really they are 33 and up.

As of now, no one will not accumulate 4-6" of snow in this event. These Accumulation maps are just bad.
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Yeah most are snowfall not snow accumulation.
 
12z RGEM still looks good for the I-85 corridor from just N for CLT to around Burlington and points NW, though it’s definitely a tick NW from 06z. Assuming soundings are alright...don’t think WB has RGEM soundings.

Kuchera clown:

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Gfs remains a huge hit for upstate and mountains. Definitely not backing down but I trust the NAM more when it comes to sniffing out the warm nose


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It looks like the GFS wants to swing a deform band through the northern portion of NC Sunday morning...but it's too warm. lol It doesn't matter though because such bands rarely materialize anyway.
 
12z GFS Kuchera clown looks similar to the RGEM, except it puts more snow down into NW SC and NE GA. Wondering if soundings will reveal some issues with that, though. I’ll have to check.

They get the Para back up and running yet?
 
gfs prob way off its rocker with the warm nose but this sounding, lol. still think clt sees sleet at best but most likely rain. warm nose will likely overperform as usual.
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Is the V16 available anywhere else atm? I looked on NCEP but didn't see it unless I'm just missing it, just curious what it shows, it's not been bad as of late.
 
metwannabe said:
Is the V16 available anywhere else atm? I looked on NCEP but didn't see it unless I'm just missing it, just curious what it shows, it's not been bad as of late.
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Last run I saw was the 18z last night. I think it may be down for some reason. Really sucks as I felt like it picked up on this storm first and I’d like to see what it’s showing now...Also arguably did the best in the medium range with our last event.
 
SD said:
Maybe they are catching something the models aren't.
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Even TWC showed the GFS and Euro , which had solid snows in the piedmont of NC and SC, hell one had 3-5” in Greenville, down to Jimmy! Then they showed their forecast and had no accumulation outside mountains and said they don’t believe the models! But this is the local for GSP???7778B4D2-1D8B-420E-B1AE-3BFE1E860DCB.png
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
It’s been broke down since about 18Z yesterday.
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superjames1992 said:
Last run I saw was the 18z last night. I think it may be down for some reason. Really sucks as I felt like it picked up on this storm first and I’d like to see what it’s showing now...Also arguably did the best in the medium range with our last event.
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Yeah I know that's why I was asking, it isn't available on the usual sites due to data flow issues from NCEP... I was wondering if it was available directly on NCEP but don't see it. Weird
 
Is this a cold air in place type of system for East of Mountains? Or is it cold chasing moisture? If the latter, it will not snow in Charlotte.
 
ProbSnowGETr.pngStormTotalSnowWeb.pngNWS GSP isn't too interested outside of the mountains. This forecast looks reasonable to me. I would look at the probability map to get an idea of where snow and sleet may mix in at the onset. Any accumulations in upstate SC will be very light and quickly washed away as the mix changes over to rain. One day I'll get around to making my own forecast maps.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
View attachment 71572
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I am not a Brian fan. He once was talking about no st
Jessy89 said:
Here’s the issue that could catch people off guard. And I’m not trying to post banter just I know there readers everyday that are not subscribed to this forum. By the time 12z models are out we are 30 or so hours from the start of this event. Usually watches are out 36-48hrs ahead of an event and warning out 24-36hrs ahead of a event. If 12z models keep this up the local meteorologists and NHS is really going to have to scramble to prepare people. Because this thing going to hit hard and heavy. If people don’t know there could be problems rush hour Friday evening.


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This is a pretty minor event though. Even if it snows say Rome and South it would not stick enough to the road to cause major hazards. Now next weekend will be a whole different ball game.
 
Bsud said:
You can't really say a non event for the upstate when hwy 11 is Upstate and will see snow. That's the thing when we refer to the upstate, not everyone in the upstate lives in the same area

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non event for the upstate
 
Found the reason why the NAM models are so high on totals in VA. This 700mb FGEN band hits and then pivots over much of VA for around 6 hours! That would certainly put rates of heavy wet snow in the 1-2+ per hour range. Would be nuts for us here in Roanoke.
 

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Unsurprisingly, the 12z GGEM likes up well with the 12z RGEM, maybe a tick further NW than it.
 
So the big issue is the 2m temps. Most models do not show freezing, or below, temps anytime outside of the mountains. Lots of 33-34 type stuff where frozen is being depicted. That could work, especially since this is overnight; but we'll still be dealing with low ratios.
 
FallsLake said:
So the big issue is the 2m temps. Most models do not show freezing, or below, temps anytime outside of the mountains. Lots of 33-34 type stuff where frozen is being depicted. That could work, especially since this is overnight; but we'll still be dealing with low ratios.
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Yeah, seems like one of those 32-33 slush storms that doesn’t stick to the roads much, at best. Good news is soil temps are a little lower than last storm, though still not ideal. Upper 30s to low 40s across NC at the moment.

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J.C. said:
Any way these 850s are even close to being right, or is this a pipe dream?

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The issue is the warm layer is above 850 mb, so these 850 maps are deceptive. It’s too bad we don’t have maps of ~750 mb temperatures. It seems like we often deal with a warm layer between 750-800 mb in our storms, including this one.
 
superjames1992 said:
The issue is the warm layer is above 850 mb, so these 850 maps are deceptive. It’s too bad we don’t have maps of ~750 mb temperatures. It seems like we often deal with a warm layer between 750-800 mb in our storms, including this one.
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Hence, the narrow band of sleet everyone keeps mentioning I guess.
 
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