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Wintry February 6th-7th

I’m trying to figure out what’s going on w such a narrow band when it appears precip shield is much larger. Anyone??
 
Enjoy it midlands. One or two more ticks NW and your out of the game.

Edit: This is an overrunning event...so the precip field going further NW may only mean more people are in the hunt.

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Could it be the cold air has it suppressed?


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Maybe but it looked (if I visualized correctly) as if precip shield extended further N within that NAM run. Maybe I was wrong. It’s just a wierd strip for our area and climatology. Not unheard of but not the norm either.
 
With it being marginal. getting this to occur at night would be a big plus. Where ever this does fall. Location will adjust nw or at least it should trend that way fun times ahead


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All the models including ensembles who have seen this storm paint a similar picture but in different locations .. a semi thin stripe that sets up where rates are good and temps are marginal enough .. makes for a good paste event but also makes for a very hard to track storm ... lots of ups and downs with this one I’m sure .. a good appetizer for the King Kong event ?
 
Yeah I’m struggling to rationalize that thin ltl band of precip w what appeared to be a bit more robust precip shield.
It's just a matter of the NW edge of precip close enough to coldest thermals for snow, if precip further NW would be a wider swath of snow.
 
It’s definitely rate driven. It looks good right now in the midlands and it may stay that way but everyone along the 85 corridor looks to be in the best location for the inevitable NW trend and precip being more expansive on the north side while being better situated in the cold air
 
Hard to even take this serious at all. What in the world is happening. Trying to look at the temps for this time frame now.
I would highly advise you to take a peek at the nam 3k. I think that may have a better handle of this atm
 
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