Looks like it’s 725-775 mb there, so pretty high. Much higher than 850 mb. Not particularly atypical around here, though.
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Wintry February 6th-7th
- Thread starter Storm5
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Deleted member 1449
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Yeah it was around 700mb on the NAM, but a little lower on the 3k. But the layer just below remains very cold.
850's a litle colder again this run near me...but maybe some sleet pellets at the beginning?
NCSNOW
Member
iGRXY
Member
First call map. Best chance for accumulations is along and north of 85 and it will all depend on how quick the warm nose sneaks into the area.Mountains and Virginia will likely get another 6+ inch storm.
Clem282340
Member
Are there anyway to overcome this warm nose
ForsythSnow
Moderator
From what I can tell, this'll be a heavy snow event to sleet or freezing rain at least in N GA. That warm nose build in after the initial snow burst but there's a thick layer of cold below that to the surface. The NAM has backside flurries as well it seems.
Jessy89
Member
Heavy rates but that’s probably not enough. The entire event will not be all snow
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Snownut
Member
This will be more of a Sleet snow mix. With that warm nose no way there's not sleet involved
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Dunkman
Member
You need the storm a little weaker? It’s a fine line. We need it strong enough to produce rates that can overcome the marginal temps but not so strong that it floods the region with warm air.
NCSNOW
Member
It was looking great at 6z. But 12z Nam suite and cam models off the wrf family are advertising the hated warm nose now. A deeper south and more easterly track of our low as it exits into the big pond would be about the only hope. This would have to be predicated by the frontal boundary pushing futher south tonight. As the lp forms along the front and rides it out to sea.
kstrickland0823
Member
Most, if not all, weather forecast apps are commonly known as "crap apps" as far as forecasts beyond 2 or 3 days. I believe they are generated by deterministic model output, which as we know, is highly unreliable beyond 3-5 days. I think some of these apps blend historic climatology into their products beyond day 7 so it's really off most of the time from reality. Just stick around here and these nerds will figure it out for you.
Thank you for that! I’ve been sticking around and plan to continue sticking around and learning the best I can! I was just really confused because some days weather apps show its going to be warm and when you walk outside it’s the opposite! Then I pop on this morning and see we are on the border but in the blue on most models so I check the apps getting ready to send my hubby a pic since he has plans of going riding at the ATV park and of course I see it’s going to be low/mid 50’s with rain during the day and 33-34 at night with rain and a slight chance of wintery mix. The past few “storms” we haven’t had accumulations other than the last storm that was a coating on the porch and gone in the blink of an eye! We’ve seen flurries and sleet mixed for 5-10 mins each time and then nada!
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Still a lot to resolve. The 12z HRRR just shows a weak mixed bag solution. Earlier hours showed the same look for N. Ga. This look would match closer with what RAH is thinking; with maybe more emphasis towards the NW piedmont.
Hour 39:
Hour 39:
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Yeah, I think that's a distinct possibility. A cold rain with a few sleet pellets mixed south of Atlanta at onset, maybe some flakes of snow at onset further north in the northern burbs. If the NAM is right.
That's such a punch in the man region sounding. Id love to see a full below freezing snow sounding for once
Snownut
Member
HRRR still paints 1-2" kuchera across the upstate.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not seeing that at all. What're you looking at?
The 9z RAP was a great improvement from the 3z run. This is what we want the HRRR to start showing.
Hour 42:
iGRXY
Member
CAMS look pretty good as well.
Jessy89
Member
Chris Justice did a Facebook live and still playing it safe. Might see a burst of snow in upstate but mostly a mountain event.
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Clem282340
Member
got any maps to post
Snownut
Member
There are some light and dark blues as you get near hwy 11
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
That was 6Z. 12Z I posted.
iGRXY
Member
Stephenb888
Member
I wouldn’t say he’s playing it safe. This is likely a non event in the upstate. The warm nose will win out as always.
Snownut
Member
Not even getting precip up into Virginia? Then again, this model is trash, so meh.
iGRXY
Member
The warm nose has no outcome of whether we see wintry weather. It determines what kind we will see. The freezing level below the warm nose is very thick and the front end thump of snow is on every model now. He's playing conservative and this easily could be a small event in the upstate.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Good call. I think you could include north Forsyth in 1-2”
Snownut
Member
You can't really say a non event for the upstate when hwy 11 is Upstate and will see snow. That's the thing when we refer to the upstate, not everyone in the upstate lives in the same area
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I’m betting on the warm nose arriving much quicker then modeled meaning quicker transitioning to IP/rain for those outside the mountains
Jessy89
Member
I’m still considering booking a room in Maggie valley Saturday night. I work till 12noon but if I can get left out by 1pm I should be good Maggie valley in a good spot. Plus Joey’s pancakes
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Unfortunately, this is usually a good bet.
Snownut
Member
I could very easily see this being a Sleet fest for a lot. Not sure what state or areas you are referring to here. But I. Referring to the upstate north of 85
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packfan98
Moderator
NW trend so far on the 12z suite. Always bet the streak. Looks good to be marginal with a dusting to 1/2” for most areas outside the mountains. Keeping my fingers crossed for something more significant next week.
Hey at least many areas along and north of 85 could see a decent burst of snow to start out (if you don’t start out as sleet lol) but yeah those 700mb warm noses are disgusting, IP/RN we go !
And I bet even the mountains will have some mixing issues as well. Maybe not at the higher elevations. This setup isn't ideal for anything significant, unless you're in VA. Remember it's going to warm up into the mid 40's for most on Sunday afternoon, with sunshine. So even if we get a dusting, it'll be gone by 3pm. I wish I could be proven wrong but this just isn't big deal for the majority of us.