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Wintry February 6th-7th

WSNC said:
Very surprised! RAH not on board at all in their morning AFD. I know they're conservative, but surprising even for them with model consensus.
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i don’t believe there is model consensus on this. You’ve had a few models trend to a wintry possibility. But not all of them.
 
Poimen said:
Soundings for this area from the NAM take surface temps to 32 for the duration of the event. I'm not sold on that just yet, but it does increase my interest just a tad. Good trends overnight for sure.
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When is the last time the NAM started out with bad thermals and a warm nose and then improved? It seems normally when the NAM starts showing bad thermals, it doesn’t reverse
 
WSNC said:
Very surprised! RAH not on board at all in their morning AFD. I know they're conservative, but surprising even for them with model consensus.
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Their AFD sounds good to me. The thermal profile isn’t good, if you look at the 3km NAM there’s a big warm nose for Central NC. The surface isn’t cold enough for freezing rain, so their call for trace to a mix is correct I think. Don’t expect to get much out of this. It’s also followed by heavy rain so even if it starts as snow or a mix, it won’t end that way. NW Piedmont is another story though and they need to watch it.

Of course thinks can change and RDU is always on the line, but I’m sure the hrrr will be similar.
 
Bsud said:
Just about all models are in agreement for 2-3" across the upstate. This as evolved into looking like a very nice event for a lot of folks

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Id like to see thay mix line push farther south into lower anderson on the 3k nam personally.
 
I want to believe this for the Upstate so badly but I am not sold on it yet because I have seen what marginalized temps and a warm nose can do one too many times. I feel like it is frequently a battle of models and climatology.


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I mean the 06z models is almost warming criteria snow for upstate sc ne Georgia and the mountains of nc. But yet national weather service for my area at least calls for 34 and rain Sunday night. They must be thinking all these models are underestimating the warm nose


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njbarrineau said:
I want to believe this for the Upstate so badly but I am not sold on it yet because I have seen what marginalized temps and a warm nose can do one too many times. I feel like it is frequently a battle of models and climatology.


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But this is a bit different now because most models are on board unlike many times where you have one or two showing one thing and others showing something else. They are picking up on something and its possibly the warm nose going away

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Jessy89 said:
I mean the 06z models is almost warming criteria snow for upstate sc ne Georgia and the mountains of nc. But yet national weather service for my area at least calls for 34 and rain Sunday night. They must be thinking all these models are underestimating the warm nose


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They wont have an update for digestion of overnight and morning modrls until 1030 or so. Expect changes on that update
 
Oconeexman said:
They wont have an update for digestion of overnight and morning modrls until 1030 or so. Expect changes on that update
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If this continues you would think they would atleast have to issues WWA sometime today

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Bsud said:
If this continues you would think they would atleast have to issues WWA sometime today

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If not a warning north of 85. I was thinking about Maggie valley sat night. Maybe I hit the pause button. These motels are sniffing something out.


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Bsud said:
But this is a bit different now because most models are on board unlike many times where you have one or two showing one thing and others showing something else. They are picking up on something and its possibly the warm nose going away

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The alignment is definitely promising! I am just salty and bitter from being burned one too many times.


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Jessy89 said:
If not a warning north of 85. I was thinking about Maggie valley sat night. Maybe I hit the pause button. These motels are sniffing something out.


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Yep to much model agreement now between them all. I think it's not a question are we gonna see snow, I think it's a question of how much

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ForsythSnow said:
FFC seems to be really against the idea of accumulations rn. Based on the runs its really too close to tell. I think that by the end of today we will know if we are closer to a heavy snow event or a quick burst then rain for at least the north metro.
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As of right now it’s leaning towards a WSW criteria. Can change quick though
 
Here’s the issue that could catch people off guard. And I’m not trying to post banter just I know there readers everyday that are not subscribed to this forum. By the time 12z models are out we are 30 or so hours from the start of this event. Usually watches are out 36-48hrs ahead of an event and warning out 24-36hrs ahead of a event. If 12z models keep this up the local meteorologists and NHS is really going to have to scramble to prepare people. Because this thing going to hit hard and heavy. If people don’t know there could be problems rush hour Friday evening.


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Oconeexman said:
Id like to see thay mix line push farther south into lower anderson on the 3k nam personally.
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Agreed. The sleet line is too close for my comfort lol. However if we can get a decent period of snow before the changeover Im good. Most storms in this area end up changing or mixing with sleet or zr at some point.
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC seems to be really against the idea of accumulations rn. Based on the runs its really too close to tell. I think that by the end of today we will know if we are closer to a heavy snow event or a quick burst then rain for at least the north metro.
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I just looked at the NAM soundings and it looks like it has us waffling back and forth between snow, sleet, and maybe a little rain. That warm nose sucks because the surface looks close enough to work with.
 
You have all models showing winter weather but yet the Local nets are downplaying and calling for rain? I don't understand.

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SD said:
Maybe they are catching something the models aren't.
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Didn't the GFS and RGEM have like 9 inch totals across portions of the Triad with the last event? There were some hefty totals before the event being spit out by various models, and most places ended up with not very much.

Outside of the mountains and the far western and northwestern areas, it's going to be hard to see much accumulating snow here.
 
SD said:
Maybe they are catching something the models aren't.
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I’m remaining on the conservative side with this system being that I’ve barely followed this storm, therefore I’m not at all hyped. From that, I look at how quick things have shifted, and how unfrequent the major cities get snow. I’m sure they will catch on with the HRRR range, but the totals are overzealous.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Yeah they are it’s called pessimism
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The weather doesn't care about pessimism or optimism. And forecasters who make their living in the public eye forecasting the weather don't have the luxury of hugging snow maps or trying to shoehorn in every best case scenario that gives max snow like we do here in weather board land.
 
Rain Cold said:
Didn't the GFS and RGEM have like 9 inch totals across portions of the Triad with the last event? There were some hefty totals before the event being spit out by various models, and most places ended up with not very much.

Outside of the mountains and the far western and northwestern areas, it's going to be hard to see much accumulating snow here.
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Our backyard is dead and we aren't popping out of the coffin like the undertaker. Typical Roxboro, Greensboro, maybe NW parts of Durham areas win again. Climo around here sucks
 
Bsud said:
You have all models showing winter weather but yet the Local nets are downplaying and calling for rain? I don't understand.

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Probably waiting for another set of runs before introducing accumulations. This was been a significant trend at short range which we've seen this year. They want to make sure it doesn't trend back. Especially since for many this is a marginal event temp wise and you don't want to all of a sudden say accumulating snow only to have the rug pull out from under you
 
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