Wintry February 6th-7th

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

From watching these models over the years. The NW trend most likely isn’t done yet. Mountains and Virginia event most likely

Over the years of watching models, I've concluded the the feared "NW trend" many times is just the models settling into climo favored areas with the frozen precip, and that's exactly what is happening here. Precip field is still expansive on the NAM, but the frozen precip will be a mountain event. I don't see that changing much in the coming days.

 

[LukeBarrette]

ICON isn't running??

 

[Ollie Williams]

ICON isn't running??

30 minutes late.

 

[Chattownsnow]

View attachment 71046

I approve

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS a little colder, looking like a stupid crush job northern half of NC

 

[Metwannabe]

Wake Co special...

 

[Rain Cold]

Wake Co special...

View attachment 71083

I like it, but I just don't see it happening. GFS is going to be too cold. I expect the NAM will end up being more accurate with ptypes. We're close to 3 days out. There's no way it won't continue to trend NW.

 

[BufordWX]

Apparently the GFS has trended towards giving me a shot at something on Saturday as this system passes by. Kinda unexpected. Lol

 

[Metwannabe]

v16..... ew

 

[Myfrotho704_]

i think if there’s one thing that could maybe work out in this setup, it’s front end stuff

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

v16..... ew

View attachment 71087

V16 has always seen it first along with our last storm it was the first to see it and it was the most consistent in its solution which ended up happening! .. I will not put the v16 in a bad model category .. maybe it’s got the upper hand this winter .. I’ll throw a quarter of my chips in

 

[FallsLake]

v16..... ew

View attachment 71087

It better aligns with the NAM. I would say this is the favored look as of right now.

 

[superjames1992]

v16..... ew

View attachment 71087

Ticked a little south along with the old GFS from 06z, I believe. Some hope.. It’s been the most consistent with this system for the last 24 hours or so.

EDIT: Looking at the clown, maybe not.

 

[Metwannabe]

It better aligns with the NAM. I would say this is the favored look as of right now.

Yep bad sign, congrats Tn, Mountains and Va

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like it’s locking on

 

[deltadog03]

I could see a quick thump for NC and then over to rain.

 

[Chandler]

Looks like it’s locking on View attachment 71090

Went from middle ga to middle va in a snap of the finger

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

I could see a quick thump for NC and then over to rain.

NE GA doesn’t look terrible right now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Went from middle ga to middle va in a snap of the finger

As of now, it’s 85 as the cutoff.... shocker

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I could see a quick thump for NC and then over to rain.

I agree the airmass aloft pre event is pretty cold, 850s before the event are around 0 to -1C, with pretty good room to dynamically cool