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Wintry February 6th-7th

Only hope for anybody outside of the mountains and Virginia is a flatter wave. not too flat that it's suppressed but flat enough that you can get precip above the NC/SC border.
 
iGRXY said:
Only hope for anybody outside of the mountains and Virginia is a flatter wave. not too flat that it's suppressed but flat enough that you can get precip above the NC/SC border.
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The 23 inch blizzard the GFS has last night has a better shot at happening then a trend back SE
 
BullCityWx said:
Sleet is almost always a transitional ptype here. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a purely sleet storm like this NAM run.


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I can remember a few pingermageddons we’ve had over the years. January 2016 in the Triad was several inches of nearly all sleet. Also March 2014 in the Triad was about half sleet and half freezing rain. Fab Feb 2014 was also a couple inches of sleet after the changeover from snow. It’s not just transitional. The mid February 2015 storm (not the late February one) was also basically all sleet in the Triad. I wouldn’t be surprised if we rack up nearly as much liquid equivalent in sleet compared to snow around here.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Overdoes in-situ CAD in the LR (note nothing close to this happened)View attachment 71080
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The only problem with this is that it overdoes how far north the sleet/snow line gets on every event. The icing situation however it was overdid here as Jay is saying.
 
superjames1992 said:
I can remember a few pingermageddons we’ve had over the years. January 2016 in the Triad was several inches of nearly all sleet. Also March 2014 in the Triad was about half sleet and half freezing rain. Fab Feb 2014 was also a couple inches of sleet after the changeover from snow. It’s not just transitional. The mid February 2015 storm (not the late February one) was also basically all sleet in the Triad. I wouldn’t be surprised if we rack up nearly as much liquid equivalent in sleet compared to snow around here.
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Yeah I can definitely remember a few storms with a lot of sleet, just not many with it being the only ptype.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Overdoes in-situ CAD in the LR (note nothing close to this happened)View attachment 71080
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Exactly and it's becoming painfully obvious this is trending towards a much more amped up system and WAA will win out..... again our only hope is a weaker/flatter system and I just don't see that atm
 
metwannabe said:
Exactly and it's becoming painfully obvious this is trending towards a much more amped up system and WAA will win out..... again our only hope is a weaker/flatter system and I just don't see that atm
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NAM does have a history with over-amplifying things so still got that in your back-pocket
 
BullCityWx said:
Yeah I can definitely remember a few storms with a lot of sleet, just not many with it being the only ptype.


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Oh yeah, it’s usually not the only P-type, but in many storks it ends up being our dominant one.
 
I think people need to chill a little. The UKMET. ECMWF, GGEM, and RGEM still show a flat system (too flat to even get precip into central NC). I’m not saying it looks good since it looks like there’s a fine like between sleet/rain and being dry for central NC with very little room for error for snow, but nothing is a sure thing yet. Maybe the four models I noted will fold at 12z, we shall see. Seems like a lot of options are still on the table to me, especially for the NC Piedmont and S VA.
 
malak05 said:
NAM does have a history with over-amplifying things so still got that in your back-pocket
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Not as much since it's last upgrade, for perspective it was the last model to the party with the system up here last week.... it was weak/suppressed and nonexistent up till 11th hour
 
superjames1992 said:
I think people need to chill a little. The UKMET. ECMWF, GGEM, and RGEM still show a flat system (too flat to even get precip into central NC). I’m not saying it looks good since it looks like there’s a fine like between sleet/rain and being dry for central NC with very little room for error for snow, but nothing is a sure thing yet. Maybe the four models I noted will fold at 12z, we shall see. Seems like a lot of options are still on the table to me, especially for the NC Piedmont and S VA.
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Who is not chill? Seriously I'm not nit picking, well maybe I am haha, but I don't see anyone "freaking" out I just see a discussion about the trends. Unfortunately the Euro came NW a good bit last night which is nice as long as it stops. I don't think anything is set in stone but just can't ignore what is being shown either, hopefully the Ukie and Euro squash the NW trend talk here in a few hours and we're high fiving again.
 
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