Nomanslandva
Member
Y'all picked a bad day to break the V16.
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Wintry February 6th-7th
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
HSVweather
Member
Close for extreme north AL
SWVAwxfan
Member
I just got NAMed
HSVweather
Member
High res NAM still has it for your area, only goes through 60hr
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Yeah looking good for us once again
SWVAwxfan
Member
I had forgotten about this threat after the models went to hell in a handbasket. In shock seeing tonight's trends.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Yeah quick mover but will probably be heavy if the models verify.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Agree. Snow can pile up in a hurry if it falls fast enough. And our ground Temps are pretty cold.
Jessy89
Member
I think the GFS is looking good for upstate I don’t like how far north and amped the Nam is though
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Forevertothee
Member
From GSP
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: Following Friday afternoon`s frontal
passage, a broad sfc high builds in underneath a boring 500mb
pattern on Saturday. With the last of the clouds associated with
the frontal band clearing out overnight, we can expect a few hours
of clear skies and decent insolation, before height falls from a
northern stream trough crossing the Appalachians and a plume of
low-level moisture allow clouds to build back in and reinvigorate
CAA. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough is facilitating the
development of a coastal low over the deep south, which tracks along
the stalled frontal boundary and off the Atlantic coast by Sunday.
Sunday night, especially in the hours after midnight, will be
our best chance for winter precip, but the models still aren`t
handling the system very well and thus there remains a fair bit
of uncertainty regarding impacts. The Canadian and European
models bring the jet stream a bit farther south, and that dry
air is keeping the precip chances farther south; the GFS and
NAM are trending wetter and bringing the higher PoPs north into
the Carolinas. GFS and NAM also agree on the formation of a
deformation zone in the early morning hours Sunday, which ramps
up chances of wintry precip. GFS soundings look more snow-like,
where the latest run of the NAM has an elevated warm nose with
a deep subfreezing layer stretching from the surface to as high
as 800mb. Both models are trending towards better moisture into
the predawn hours, which could allow precip chances to linger for
longer than previously expected. In any case, light accumulations
are possible in the mountains, but it`s too soon to make an accurate
assessment of ice accums or wintery precip outside the Appalachians.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: Following Friday afternoon`s frontal
passage, a broad sfc high builds in underneath a boring 500mb
pattern on Saturday. With the last of the clouds associated with
the frontal band clearing out overnight, we can expect a few hours
of clear skies and decent insolation, before height falls from a
northern stream trough crossing the Appalachians and a plume of
low-level moisture allow clouds to build back in and reinvigorate
CAA. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough is facilitating the
development of a coastal low over the deep south, which tracks along
the stalled frontal boundary and off the Atlantic coast by Sunday.
Sunday night, especially in the hours after midnight, will be
our best chance for winter precip, but the models still aren`t
handling the system very well and thus there remains a fair bit
of uncertainty regarding impacts. The Canadian and European
models bring the jet stream a bit farther south, and that dry
air is keeping the precip chances farther south; the GFS and
NAM are trending wetter and bringing the higher PoPs north into
the Carolinas. GFS and NAM also agree on the formation of a
deformation zone in the early morning hours Sunday, which ramps
up chances of wintry precip. GFS soundings look more snow-like,
where the latest run of the NAM has an elevated warm nose with
a deep subfreezing layer stretching from the surface to as high
as 800mb. Both models are trending towards better moisture into
the predawn hours, which could allow precip chances to linger for
longer than previously expected. In any case, light accumulations
are possible in the mountains, but it`s too soon to make an accurate
assessment of ice accums or wintery precip outside the Appalachians.
This may turn out to be a decent run, 850s colder before the event so far 
Looks better for SC
Jessy89
Member
Chris justice isn’t very optimistic at all. He said no accumulation in the upstate. Only accumulations will be in the mountains. Should I go to Maggie valley Saturday night?
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Snownut
Member
They never get optimistic until the day before it happens. They have burned themselves too much
Chris justice isn’t very optimistic at all. He said no accumulation in the upstate. Only accumulations will be in the mountains. Should I go to Maggie valley Saturday night?
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SWVAwxfan
Member
18z control 
Bit of an increase on the eps
FWIW 
Headed to sapphire valley on Saturday 
️
️
Jessy89
Member
Headed to sapphire valley on Saturday️
️
I thought about heading to Maggie valley to stay Saturday night haven’t decided yet
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Jessy89
Member
The end of the hrrrr run not bad
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D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I hope I'm wrong but when i see 540 line in Virginia I'm not holding my breath on more than sleet to rain
The end of the hrrrr run not bad
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Undeniably a good front end hit for N GA. The rates are good as well. Kuchera puts down 1.5" and 10:1 puts down 3" in just 3 hours. That'll be some heavy snowfall.
NAM looks.... flatter so far but there more of a hook with the N/S
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12k NAM has that same look in NE GA.
850s are colder and 700s but sfc temps are a problem 
Jessy89
Member
The low pressure looks further south on the NAM. That to me is a good thing still marginal. But this will be a sloppy heavy wet rate driven snow.
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Imo even with marginal surface temps that look on that NAM is supportive of front end snow across 85/north given the warm nose backed off, just sucks that sfc temps at the onset is warm
WNC looking golden as usual
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Man those 850s are beautiful
Sleet thump
Sounding here, Really man, it’s cold enough aloft, the BL sucks tho
I can hear the little **bleep* pinging now looks like the last storm for the foothills as far as accumulation maps.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The NAM looks like a raging sleetstorm for my area after the warm nose moves in. A solid low layer of just around freezing after the 850s torch up.
2-inch sleet bullseye.
So close to thumping snow lol 
but that IP 
but that IP GaSnowhound
Member
Has Glenn B addressed our area yet?? He was talking winter weather a few days ago but Mellish mentioned “no worries for anything besides liquid for weekend”....always love the local drama?