Wintry February 6th-7th

[superjames1992]

18z NAM looking flatter out to hr 21....whether that will have meaningful impacts downstream, we shall see.

Edit: Northern steam is going to be a problem, though.

 

[RBR71]

18z NAM looking flatter out to hr 21....whether that will have meaningful impacts downstream, we shall see.

Flatter is our only hope actually, would have less issue with waa with that.... let's see how it translates out here shortly.

 

[superjames1992]

Flatter is our only hope actually, would have less issue with waa with that.... let's see how it translates out here shortly.

Significantly slower than last run, afraid we are going to lose our cold before it gets here. By 00z Sunday it was hammering across W NC last run, now it’s still dry.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

18z NAM looking flatter out to hr 21....whether that will have meaningful impacts downstream, we shall see.

Northern stream energy is a lot more amped. Also, it looks like the whole storm system has slowed down since 12z. Don't like the change.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well looks like asking for snow from this is to much to ask for this winter

 

[WSNC]

RAH going 1 to 2" in triad and VA border counties in their CWA

 

[Chazwin]

Northern stream energy is a lot more amped. Also, it looks like the whole storm system has slowed down since 12z. Don't like the change.

Lol... we’re talking about big models swings a 7-8 days out. This is pretty crazy to be only 48 hrs out. You would think we would at least have timing pretty well nailed down.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

18Z NAM is hot garbage for the Triad. Totally foreseeable. 45 degrees at 0Z, by 3Z is 33 but drying out aloft and warm nose coming in. At best it's a two hour window for snow and that's probably pushing it.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Lol... we’re talking about big models swings a 7-8 days out. This is pretty crazy to be only 48 hrs out. You would think we would at least have timing pretty well nailed down.

We were relying on this coming in early while we still have the colder air aloft....if it gets delayed, it's over for almost the entire board.

 

[WSNC]

18Z NAM is hot garbage for the Triad. Totally foreseeable. 45 degrees at 0Z, by 3Z is 33 but drying out aloft and warm nose coming in. At best it's a two hour window for snow and that's probably pushing it.

Precip cut in half in a lot of places compared to 12z run. Maybe Euro was on to something.

 

[Jessy89]

Mountains seems like best shot of seeing measurable snow


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[NoSnowATL]

Mountains seems like best shot of seeing measurable snow


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Common theme this year.

 

[smast16]

This'll work right? (MBY sounding) ?

 

[superjames1992]

This'll work right? (MBY sounding) ?

View attachment 71766

Rates will overcome.

 

[NCSNOW]

My Abs are sore. Been getting Gut Punched and Drop Kicked since Breakfast 6z with both storms next week.

 

[LukeBarrette]

In case y’all want to see how different this run was, 12km put next to the sleet, and 3km on the sleet line. I haven’t seen a single model run before today give me sleet or ice for this storm. Crazy

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

How are we not included in the winter storm watch @ForsythSnow

 

[neelsamb]

How are we not included in the winter storm watch @ForsythSnow

No travel impacts is my guess

 

[olhausen]

I swear this model is taunting me. Been giving me these damn fantasy looks all winter when no other model is close. Local NWS says maybe half an inch tomorrow evening into Sunday morning.

 

[ForsythSnow]

How are we not included in the winter storm watch @ForsythSnow

It's called a warm nose. We will see day of but at this point I expect a sleetstorm.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

This'll work right? (MBY sounding) ?

View attachment 71766

How do you say it? Just Nope?

 

[SNOWMANN]

I spoke too soon but I know how this will go down GSP just extended there watch for all of my area out to hickory along 1-40 with 3-7 possible in Marion Sat Night. By tommrow they'll drop me down to 1-3....

Game time= Sloppy inch u have to be up at 3am to enjoy...

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Long range HRRR is all in with front end thumpy mess

 

[Webberweather53]

Warm advection w/ big warm nose and no legit cold source to fend off the impending warm air. This almost always ends busting low on snow/warmer

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

It's called a warm nose. We will see day of but at this point I expect a sleetstorm.

You think we’ll go under one tomorrow? And yes the warm nose is annoying

 

[Stormlover]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Lfg

 

[Stormlover]

HUN also said this:
Accumulations in some of the raw
model data suggest 2-4 inches in southern TN and even portions along
the TN/AL line in northwest AL.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Long range HRRR is all in with front end thumpy messView attachment 71777

We’ll be lucky to even see that

 

[Rosie]

WSW here.

 

[Snownut]

WSW Here in my neck of the upstate.

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[Nomanslandva]

In case y’all want to see how different this run was, 12km put next to the sleet, and 3km on the sleet line. I haven’t seen a single model run before today give me sleet or ice for this storm. Crazy

The NAM is good with thermals. I was surprised last system stayed all snow until the very end so there is a chance it is a little to warm up there this time...but probably not. Verbatim, there are only 2 hours in that sounding from the 3k that are sleet or rain (surface is +32) but then it flips back to snow. We'll just have to hope no more NW trend or weaker storm.

 

[superjames1992]

I’d argue the 18z RGEM took a step towards what the NAM/Euro are showing, but it still looks better than they do. Also jackpots CLT on the front end. But this seems to be a weenie cold model these days.

Kuchera clown:

 

[Flotown]

HUN also said this:
Accumulations in some of the raw
model data suggest 2-4 inches in southern TN and even portions along
the TN/AL line in northwest AL.

reckon they meant Northeast AL???

 

[jackendrickwx]

Updated forecast as well as high end and low end maps for GSP

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like KOUN is even biting on some winter precipitation down my way tomorrow morning. Might squeeze in some token sleet pellets or flakes!

 

[ForsythSnow]

You think we’ll go under one tomorrow? And yes the warm nose is annoying

Warm nose only gets stronger. This one's prob gone for us.

 

[Snownut]

Chris Justice is now biting. He waited as long as he could

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[IWC]

I Guess it is...

 

[ryan1234]

We’ll be lucky to even see that

Damn man, you used to be the one of the more optimistic ones on this board. These awful runs have really done a number on you, haven't they? I feel you though. It's rough. But I am hopeful we will see something at some point. Hang in there!