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Wintry February 6th-7th

I hope I don’t regret the decision but I just booked a room in Maggie valley tomorrow night. If I stay in liberty it likely be a burst of snow to rain. But on the other hand I hope Maggie valley doesn’t bust with little to know moisture. Hopefully I can nail this storm and intercept this thing


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farleydawg792 said:
21z RAP Clown Map
View attachment 71823
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That purple paint is right over my house. Sorry, it has zero chance of happening.

Seriously though, the Euro even has a little bit in the same area. It just doesn't seem reasonable given the boundary level issues and retreating 850's in this part of Ga.
 
Iv always heard you can’t predict the weather. Seems like it’s pretty predictable around here. Just once I would like to see something unexpected happen and have a storm bust in our favor.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
That purple paint is right over my house. Sorry, it has zero chance of happening.

Seriously though, the Euro even has a little bit in the same area. It just doesn't seem reasonable given the boundary level issues and retreating 850's in this part of Ga.
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I agree. Gotta love clown maps though. Just makes me stay awake longer so I can engage in Model Madness!
 
farleydawg792 said:
I agree. Gotta love clown maps though. Just makes me stay awake longer so I can engage in Model Madness!
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I'm not going to lie, I will not be able to keep myself from radar watching all day tomorrow. And you know the drill, pulling for clear skies most of the night and clouds to roll in just before sunrise and precip streaking in from the wsw earlier than forecast LOL.

Interestingly, after looking more closely at the 21Z Rap and 12 km NAM, both models bring easterly 850's with a convergence zone just to our south for a few hours. It's a long shot, but I'll be watching!
 
Its probably a safe bet to say upstate north of 85 sees 1-2" don't really see it being over that.

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Really hoping to see 3-5 in Maggie Valley. That would be a successful chase. Risk staying home in upstate and getting warm nose and seeing little to nothing. Mountains the only thing that could go wrong is the moisture not push far enough north. I’m really excited to see how this evolves.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
I wish this was true, this is beautiful, hopefully the NAM can maybe come around to a front end thump solution again, but damn you just can’t fall for this anymore, we know it will look like ---- at go time
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Yea tomorrow morning we will have hope with some model throwing us a bone and then at go time it’ll be pouring rain while we curse at the sky.

Charlotte has been in snow hell since I moved from RDU and RDU has seen several decent events. It’s my fault I’ll take the blame.
 
FWIW the 00z nam looks a little cooler through 1pm tomorrow as opposed to the 18z
 
I think it’ll snow a little bit in the beginning, we need more precipitation here to take advantage of the solid 850s at the onset, that could come to our advantage also by cooling temps quicker 574DA768-7207-480C-9F79-CCA9BDA96602.pngA3D367A0-6C6E-49C6-94C9-B6D0334F56C0.png
 
The 3km lacks precip at the onset/its spotty so that’s why it isn’t as good as the 12km/HRRR, need a big ol frontogenic band to start out
 
snku_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
 
If you take a 50-75 percent reduction of the clown map that yields .5-1" for the Triad, which is probably about the best we can expect.
 
The 00z NAM showing some pretty hefty snow across the upstate. If that verifies someone is going to see a pretty decent snow

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