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Wintry February 6th-7th

12Z UK for those keeping track. Razor thin margin in the Triad.

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I could be wrong but it’s looking like I can forget about this one in Anderson and start hoping for next weekend. Maybe others will have better luck.
 
Poimen said:
I will say this about the RAP: It did much better than the HRRR for last weekend's event (in this area).
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Has a hour sounding of this from dynamical cooling here, I guess it just really depends on precip, if there’s a big ol 30-40 DBZ band that’s moves in, a quick burst of snow is possible 84B6E8D8-5AC7-41EA-B466-F711D4C7E5C0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Has a hour sounding of this from dynamical cooling here, I guess it just really depends on precip, if there’s a big ol 30-40 DBZ band that’s moves in, a quick burst of snow is possible View attachment 71677
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I mean the NAM even starts me out with this.... I will say there’s lots of room to cool aloft before the warm Nose moves in BF3A3861-3BEB-460C-A38C-2E16004B1071.png
 
FamouslyHot said:
View attachment 71639View attachment 71640NWS GSP isn't too interested outside of the mountains. This forecast looks reasonable to me. I would look at the probability map to get an idea of where snow and sleet may mix in at the onset. Any accumulations in upstate SC will be very light and quickly washed away as the mix changes over to rain. One day I'll get around to making my own forecast maps.
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I think the mountain totals are reasonable if we are assuming that sleet will play a role. If all snow I would triple these totals at least in the mountains.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ill be in Boone. Ground is still covered in several inches of snow. They get popped twice this upcoming week, it might end up as a all time greatest year up there. One of our mtn posters has posted that the ground has been covered above 4000 ft like 63 out of the last 65 days.
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09 and 10 cant be beaten not in my lifetime over
Jessy89 said:
Winter storm watch for mountains now


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I'm barely in it, idk why GSP didn't include all of McDowell county this storm looks way better than last weeks. I like GSP but u can tell a difference the mets down there on forecasts and hazard products between night and day shift. Night shift is always more optimistic if they see the output the models are currently showing. Well see.....
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
09 and 10 cant be beaten not in my lifetime over

I'm barely in it, idk why GSP didn't include all of McDowell county this storm looks way better than last weeks. I like GSP but u can tell a difference the mets down there on forecasts and hazard products between night and day shift. Night shift is always more optimistic if they see the output the models are currently showing. Well see.....
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There really conservative with the watch. Saying 1-4 inches of snow/sleet in the mountains. I think those numbers are pretty conservative especially north of I40. I think 2-4 will be the average


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avlsnow said:
I think the mountain totals are reasonable if we are assuming that sleet will play a role. If all snow I would triple these totals at least in the mountains.
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Seems to always be a massive difference around 3000'. I'd say you're right about upping totals at the higher elevations. Lower elevations like Asheville will probably verify closer to the low end.
 
Jessy89 said:
There really conservative with the watch. Saying 1-4 inches of snow/sleet in the mountains. I think those numbers are pretty conservative especially north of I40. I think 2-4 will be the average


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Yeah that's my thinking for my area around lake james 2-4 cold air always gets trapped up against the linville gorge giving us more sleet and rate driven snow. Pretty cool micro climate to live in tbh.
 
superjames1992 said:
The issue is the warm layer is above 850 mb, so these 850 maps are deceptive. It’s too bad we don’t have maps of ~750 mb temperatures. It seems like we often deal with a warm layer between 750-800 mb in our storms, including this one.
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I believe weathernerds.com has maps at 800mb for some models.
 
superjames1992 said:
The issue is the warm layer is above 850 mb, so these 850 maps are deceptive. It’s too bad we don’t have maps of ~750 mb temperatures. It seems like we often deal with a warm layer between 750-800 mb in our storms, including this one.
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Actually It is moore centered to the 850 mb level: Heres 12z NAM 850 and 700 mb

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700 mb

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