Wintry February 6th-7th

[Tarheel1]

Maybe they are catching something the models aren't.

Even TWC showed the GFS and Euro , which had solid snows in the piedmont of NC and SC, hell one had 3-5” in Greenville, down to Jimmy! Then they showed their forecast and had no accumulation outside mountains and said they don’t believe the models! But this is the local for GSP???

 

[Jessy89]

GSP
View attachment 71629

Wow conservative even in western NC


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[Metwannabe]

It’s been broke down since about 18Z yesterday.

Last run I saw was the 18z last night. I think it may be down for some reason. Really sucks as I felt like it picked up on this storm first and I’d like to see what it’s showing now...Also arguably did the best in the medium range with our last event.

Yeah I know that's why I was asking, it isn't available on the usual sites due to data flow issues from NCEP... I was wondering if it was available directly on NCEP but don't see it. Weird

 

[Stephenb888]

I’m confused. You have this, and then you have the weather channel showing much more snow than this. Is the weather channel that inaccurate?

GSP
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[Bham 99]

Is this a cold air in place type of system for East of Mountains? Or is it cold chasing moisture? If the latter, it will not snow in Charlotte.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Is this a cold air in place type of system for East of Mountains? Or is it cold chasing moisture? If the latter, it will not snow in Charlotte.

Its cooling from the top of the atmosphere down with a lack of cold at the surface. It's not an ideal set up for accumulating snow.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Currently thinking 3-5 here in Roanoke.

 

[FamouslyHot]

NWS GSP isn't too interested outside of the mountains. This forecast looks reasonable to me. I would look at the probability map to get an idea of where snow and sleet may mix in at the onset. Any accumulations in upstate SC will be very light and quickly washed away as the mix changes over to rain. One day I'll get around to making my own forecast maps.

 

[NewnanWetather]

View attachment 71572

I am not a Brian fan. He once was talking about no st

Here’s the issue that could catch people off guard. And I’m not trying to post banter just I know there readers everyday that are not subscribed to this forum. By the time 12z models are out we are 30 or so hours from the start of this event. Usually watches are out 36-48hrs ahead of an event and warning out 24-36hrs ahead of a event. If 12z models keep this up the local meteorologists and NHS is really going to have to scramble to prepare people. Because this thing going to hit hard and heavy. If people don’t know there could be problems rush hour Friday evening.


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This is a pretty minor event though. Even if it snows say Rome and South it would not stick enough to the road to cause major hazards. Now next weekend will be a whole different ball game.

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

You can't really say a non event for the upstate when hwy 11 is Upstate and will see snow. That's the thing when we refer to the upstate, not everyone in the upstate lives in the same area

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non event for the upstate

 

[superjames1992]

The KING looks good for the foothills (it’s a 10:1 clown, so use at your own risk):

 

[Snownut]

non event for the upstate

And just what is Your definition of the upstate?

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[LukeBarrette]

Found the reason why the NAM models are so high on totals in VA. This 700mb FGEN band hits and then pivots over much of VA for around 6 hours! That would certainly put rates of heavy wet snow in the 1-2+ per hour range. Would be nuts for us here in Roanoke.

 

[superjames1992]

Unsurprisingly, the 12z GGEM likes up well with the 12z RGEM, maybe a tick further NW than it.

 

[FallsLake]

So the big issue is the 2m temps. Most models do not show freezing, or below, temps anytime outside of the mountains. Lots of 33-34 type stuff where frozen is being depicted. That could work, especially since this is overnight; but we'll still be dealing with low ratios.

 

[NCSNOW]

RDPS MBY Keeps Snow sounding throughout except one frame: Here it is

 

[J.C.]

Any way these 850s are even close to being right, or is this a pipe dream?

 

[superjames1992]

So the big issue is the 2m temps. Most models do not show freezing, or below, temps anytime outside of the mountains. Lots of 33-34 type stuff where frozen is being depicted. That could work, especially since this is overnight; but we'll still be dealing with low ratios.

Yeah, seems like one of those 32-33 slush storms that doesn’t stick to the roads much, at best. Good news is soil temps are a little lower than last storm, though still not ideal. Upper 30s to low 40s across NC at the moment.

 

[superjames1992]

Any way these 850s are even close to being right, or is this a pipe dream?

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The issue is the warm layer is above 850 mb, so these 850 maps are deceptive. It’s too bad we don’t have maps of ~750 mb temperatures. It seems like we often deal with a warm layer between 750-800 mb in our storms, including this one.

 

[J.C.]

The issue is the warm layer is above 850 mb, so these 850 maps are deceptive. It’s too bad we don’t have maps of ~750 mb temperatures. It seems like we often deal with a warm layer between 750-800 mb in our storms, including this one.

Hence, the narrow band of sleet everyone keeps mentioning I guess.