Big improvements on the southern end over the past two model cycles. NWS in Raleigh isn’t biting at all in their morning discussion.
Is the rap good short range model
Does the rap count sleet and rain as well in snowfall maps
What day and time is this storm suppose to happenThis storm gives me heavy feb 26 2015 vibes, same exact marginal setup (it was 33-35 with snow after sunset after it was in the upper 40s that afternoon), pretty similar look at H5 View attachment 71565View attachment 71566View attachment 71564View attachment 71567
Yeah, I’m sure it’s a slim chance but would love to see us be able to get S metro down to Macon (which selfishly would help our are too) at least a solid coating of snow/sleet. Covington to Athens (our side of town) has been enduring what I consider a snow drought even for these parts. How likely would it be for “rates” to be high enough to take over in this scenario vs say what NAM is modeling??Euro is WOW? . About as dream scenario as it's going to get with this storm. Less amped southern stream shortwave means less initial WAA and more southerly track. It's going to be so important to track how far south our front gets today since that will set the stage for everything. I hope this is not a mirage, but that Euro run was something else.
Lol hopefully we can get that rain snow line down to Chester SC the day before of on the NAMs to make us feel safer and account for horrible last minute trendsSoundings for this area from the NAM take surface temps to 32 for the duration of the event. I'm not sold on that just yet, but it does increase my interest just a tad. Good trends overnight for sure.
If I’m not mistaken noDoes the rap count sleet and rain as well in snowfall maps
Saturday nightWhat day and time is this storm suppose to happen
They eitheir are linked in to NWS data output or Most likely GFS/Buffkit. Noticed this myself and 90% of public gets their forecast from these apps. They will be in for a nice suprise latter todday when it changes and catches up.Not to sound crazy (but I am!) do the weather apps on phones not pick up on things?
I look at 4 different ones each morning and they all say something different. But during this “possible storm” it’s showing our temps ranging from 50-54 during the day and 33-34 at night. Not sure how it could snow/sleet with those temps. But every model we are also just on the edge of the blue. We’ve missed out on all the prior systems other than a stray flurry or quick coating that melted within the hour. Trying not to get my hopes up but at the same time, I’m dying inside from snow drought! Sorry this was just coming from a small town country girl who generally just sits in the background and reads the comments!
**edit** MOST models have us in blue. NAM doesn’t but GFS, EURO, and RGEM do.
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I can see the rain from my backyard. This is too close for comfortThe NAM sounding in that front end paste bomb ?View attachment 71561View attachment 71562
Very surprised! RAH not on board at all in their morning AFD. I know they're conservative, but surprising even for them with model consensus.They eitheir are linked in to NWS data output or Most likely GFS/Buffkit. Noticed this myself and 90% of public gets their forecast from these apps. They will be in for a nice suprise latter todday when it changes and catches up.