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Wintry February 6th-7th

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
10-20% means they just can’t totally discount that front end band that some of the models were showing in the upstate.
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Pleasantly surprised to wake up to find that I busted low temp forecast by 5 degrees here under clear skies all night and right on cue a heavy cloud deck has rolled in. I'm counting on that earlier than modeled front end band to give MBY a little love here in the southernmost chance area to see some flakes before it goes over to rain later here. Good luck up there!
 
And I've got very light sleet. The trouble is 10 days ago on the map it was substantial, and here in reality it's just a precursor to rain. What I want is my preferred form of falling ice, but like the zmonster scale on the maps for later. But if one wants sleet one has to dance with the z rain potential.
 
I thought the clouds might slow the temperature rise, but no, its skyrocketed 10 degrees in two hours despite the clouds. The Atlanta area should get pretty close to 50 by noon it looks like.
 
J.C. said:
I thought the clouds might slow the temperature rise, but no, its skyrocketed 10 degrees in two hours despite the clouds. The Atlanta area should get pretty close to 50 by noon it looks like.
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Im not sure it will get that high but it might. We went from 25 to 35 pretty quick.
 
dsaur said:
And I've got very light sleet. The trouble is 10 days ago on the map it was substantial, and here in reality it's just a precursor to rain. What I want is my preferred form of falling ice, but like the zmonster scale on the maps for later. But if one wants sleet one has to dance with the z rain potential.
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Sleet 40 miles south of Atlanta is pretty impressive....didn't realize it was that cold aloft even that far south.
 
It was 28 degrees an hour ago in Anderson. Now it’s 36. And this is even with cloud cover. It’s gonna be a cold rain.
 
I’m sold on a front end band that produces snow/sleet..... how long and expansive is it tho ? The more expansive/heavier the FGEN band is, the more likely your gonna see a burst of snow, even as far as Charlotte/sc upstate, I’m banking on the 3km which verbatim is some flakes to start with the rain 6D4B36ED-3E22-4280-9105-15EEF21FB84C.png0BDACB84-2A22-4C06-BD51-B6854BF6AEC0.png
 
It comes as no surprise to me but precip is breaking out across the northern half of AL/NW GA already. I'm not sure how much of it is actually reaching the ground tho.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m sold on a front end band that produces snow/sleet..... how long and expansive is it tho ? The more expansive/heavier the FGEN band is, the more likely your gonna see a burst of snow, even as far as Charlotte/sc upstate, I’m banking on the 3km which verbatim is some flakes to start with the rain View attachment 72067View attachment 72068
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Totally agree with you. Nam 3k should be the only model that people take serious right now
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m sold on a front end band that produces snow/sleet..... how long and expansive is it tho ? The more expansive/heavier the FGEN band is, the more likely your gonna see a burst of snow, even as far as Charlotte/sc upstate, I’m banking on the 3km which verbatim is some flakes to start with the rain View attachment 72067View attachment 72068
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For example, i waste this sort of sounding in the 3km with being dry for 3 hours before the warm nose takes over.. need heavy precip D6091560-41AB-48DF-9788-1B8CC4065A22.png
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Totally agree with you. Nam 3k should be the only model that people take serious right now
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Something you should realize is that this will ALL be rate based. The NAM only lets the warm nose win when the precip is lighter. The HRRR has heavier precip which is why it puts down so much more. They're both situationally similar but one is drier. Take it hour by hour and we will see who comes out on top but I wouldn't discard everything but the NAM if I were you or anyone.

Another thing to mention is the NAM has slowly been increasing the precip and the warm nose has slowly not been as much of an issue midgame. Compare the soundings and you'll see.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Looks almost exactly the same.
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Checked in on the soundings and they barely make a warm nose due to rates. When they do the DGZ is full of energy to the point it dumps and keeps it cool. COD map showed kuchera of 4.5 here and 6.8 10:1. Quite impressive but we have to see in 7 hours or so if it holds.
 
Nomanslandva said:
For you, maybe north to Fredricksburg would be closer? I think just west of here will be best if over this way. 3K nam warm nose was ok this run. paste bomb with temps 32-33 the whole event.
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For sure, just that my parents live in Greensboro, so it’s an easy place for me to go! Fancy Gap looks really good to me, too, and is only a couple hours distant.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Checked in on the soundings and they barely make a warm nose due to rates. When they do the DGZ is full of energy to the point it dumps and keeps it cool. COD map showed kuchera of 4.5 here and 6.8 10:1. Quite impressive but we have to see in 7 hours or so if it holds.
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I'm in west paulding the most recent model runs are improving but we are literally on the margins it is going to be super close for either a few hours of rain, heavy pingers, or Snow sometimr late afternoon into night
 
superjames1992 said:
The HRRR is so bad. Don’t trust it. Look at how it’s ticking NE in C NC finally. I know it’s easy to get sucked in, though.
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Meanwhile it looks more widespread but an inch less here in N GA this run. I'd say it's an improvement for GA. Sure this might not be one for NC but given GA seems to be on an axis for the precip it won't change much.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Meanwhile it looks more widespread but an inch less here in N GA this run. I'd say it's an improvement for GA. Sure this might not be one for NC but given GA seems to be on an axis for the precip it won't change much.
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You thinking 1-2” here?
 
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