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Wintry February 6th-7th

WSNC said:
Very surprised! RAH not on board at all in their morning AFD. I know they're conservative, but surprising even for them with model consensus.
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i don’t believe there is model consensus on this. You’ve had a few models trend to a wintry possibility. But not all of them.
 
Poimen said:
Soundings for this area from the NAM take surface temps to 32 for the duration of the event. I'm not sold on that just yet, but it does increase my interest just a tad. Good trends overnight for sure.
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When is the last time the NAM started out with bad thermals and a warm nose and then improved? It seems normally when the NAM starts showing bad thermals, it doesn’t reverse
 
WSNC said:
Very surprised! RAH not on board at all in their morning AFD. I know they're conservative, but surprising even for them with model consensus.
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Their AFD sounds good to me. The thermal profile isn’t good, if you look at the 3km NAM there’s a big warm nose for Central NC. The surface isn’t cold enough for freezing rain, so their call for trace to a mix is correct I think. Don’t expect to get much out of this. It’s also followed by heavy rain so even if it starts as snow or a mix, it won’t end that way. NW Piedmont is another story though and they need to watch it.

Of course thinks can change and RDU is always on the line, but I’m sure the hrrr will be similar.
 
Bsud said:
Just about all models are in agreement for 2-3" across the upstate. This as evolved into looking like a very nice event for a lot of folks

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Id like to see thay mix line push farther south into lower anderson on the 3k nam personally.
 
I want to believe this for the Upstate so badly but I am not sold on it yet because I have seen what marginalized temps and a warm nose can do one too many times. I feel like it is frequently a battle of models and climatology.


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I mean the 06z models is almost warming criteria snow for upstate sc ne Georgia and the mountains of nc. But yet national weather service for my area at least calls for 34 and rain Sunday night. They must be thinking all these models are underestimating the warm nose


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njbarrineau said:
I want to believe this for the Upstate so badly but I am not sold on it yet because I have seen what marginalized temps and a warm nose can do one too many times. I feel like it is frequently a battle of models and climatology.


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But this is a bit different now because most models are on board unlike many times where you have one or two showing one thing and others showing something else. They are picking up on something and its possibly the warm nose going away

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Jessy89 said:
I mean the 06z models is almost warming criteria snow for upstate sc ne Georgia and the mountains of nc. But yet national weather service for my area at least calls for 34 and rain Sunday night. They must be thinking all these models are underestimating the warm nose


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They wont have an update for digestion of overnight and morning modrls until 1030 or so. Expect changes on that update
 
Oconeexman said:
They wont have an update for digestion of overnight and morning modrls until 1030 or so. Expect changes on that update
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If this continues you would think they would atleast have to issues WWA sometime today

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Bsud said:
If this continues you would think they would atleast have to issues WWA sometime today

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If not a warning north of 85. I was thinking about Maggie valley sat night. Maybe I hit the pause button. These motels are sniffing something out.


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Bsud said:
But this is a bit different now because most models are on board unlike many times where you have one or two showing one thing and others showing something else. They are picking up on something and its possibly the warm nose going away

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The alignment is definitely promising! I am just salty and bitter from being burned one too many times.


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Jessy89 said:
If not a warning north of 85. I was thinking about Maggie valley sat night. Maybe I hit the pause button. These motels are sniffing something out.


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Yep to much model agreement now between them all. I think it's not a question are we gonna see snow, I think it's a question of how much

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