As of right now it’s leaning towards a WSW criteria. Can change quick though
Local Mets are really downplaying it outside the mountains. My guess is WSW from Gordon-Dawson-White and points north. WWA for Bartow-Forsyth-Banks line.
Agreed. The sleet line is too close for my comfort lol. However if we can get a decent period of snow before the changeover Im good. Most storms in this area end up changing or mixing with sleet or zr at some point.
I just looked at the NAM soundings and it looks like it has us waffling back and forth between snow, sleet, and maybe a little rain. That warm nose sucks because the surface looks close enough to work with.
Nam has north Forsyth area as mostly if not all snow
My output showed snow for me but it's so dang close just above me I'm sure it will waffle back and forth if the NAM is right.
Maybe they are catching something the models aren't.
Didn't the GFS and RGEM have like 9 inch totals across portions of the Triad with the last event? There were some hefty totals before the event being spit out by various models, and most places ended up with not very much.
I’m remaining on the conservative side with this system being that I’ve barely followed this storm, therefore I’m not at all hyped. From that, I look at how quick things have shifted, and how unfrequent the major cities get snow. I’m sure they will catch on with the HRRR range, but the totals are overzealous.
I would hope my Mets didn’t make forecasts based on what they actually want to happen.
The weather doesn't care about pessimism or optimism. And forecasters who make their living in the public eye forecasting the weather don't have the luxury of hugging snow maps or trying to shoehorn in every best case scenario that gives max snow like we do here in weather board land.
Our backyard is dead and we aren't popping out of the coffin like the undertaker. Typical Roxboro, Greensboro, maybe NW parts of Durham areas win again. Climo around here sucks
Lol Nitz posted the SREF which is the one model that shows not a whole lot for us. I sort of understand the pessimism but at this point it seems like they’re just looking at the model they want to see happen and discarding everything else
Probably waiting for another set of runs before introducing accumulations. This was been a significant trend at short range which we've seen this year. They want to make sure it doesn't trend back. Especially since for many this is a marginal event temp wise and you don't want to all of a sudden say accumulating snow only to have the rug pull out from under you