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Pattern February 2024

GEFS is quite a bit colder aloft and at the surface. we just need the low to stall and track up the coast. We finally get a strong Miller A and are missing the SE ridging. NS energy and bombogenesis would work too. so delicate a setup.
 
Crazy that the cmc and icon are so close of the closed ridge at the apex of the omega while the gfs is completely different and way easy. A mid ground here would allow the system to climb the coast and still give potential for a late phase. Honestly if we went more toward the cmc and icon or further west we'd have to start having conversations about the low being well inland
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re at a point in the game where we need favorable trends in the next several suites and no backtracking, this thing is closing in D7 quickly
Click to expand...
The biggest thing I’m wanting to see still is the models come back to the colder look we saw the other day… that’s still most important IMO. With the STJ as strong as it is, I still think that any system coming by on it, is going to amp up enough to give us plenty of moisture.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re at a point in the game where we need favorable trends in the next several suites and no backtracking, this thing is closing in D7 quickly
Click to expand...
If this were the old days, we would lose it around day 7 to (maybe) get it back around day 5. But, it's been a few years since we've had a good storm so ...
 
Here's the end of the UKMET if anyone wants to alalyze and extrapolate:
500h_anom.conus.png
 
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