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Pattern February 2024

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Nothing here screams the "February pattern that favors cold and snow" we've heard about since December.
 
1300m said:
For years now, we've seen a tendency for the TPV to not fully slide eastward under Greenland blocking when we've had opportunities for it to. If that TPV doesn't fully come under the block and into favorable position in northern New England / southeastern Canada, which the EPS out to 2/19 still isn't showing a definitive signal of, it will likely wreck the pattern and either the Midwest and/or New England will be getting snow while we continue just like we have been. It is hard to break these kind of year-over-year tendencies.
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At least as of now, it seems like the weaker the TPV is, the more likely it will be to slide east. If it remains very strong, it appears more EPS members keep it further west. Something to consider.
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Until we can move beyond this multi-year tendency, I think it is wise to continue to look for and assess the signs and indications that it may happen again, while obviously hoping and praying it doesn't.
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I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long range ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
 
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1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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Poles are moving ( magnetic north) computers are not adjusting far fetched but still possible. Second computer models are being over sampled or have a bias they put on certain Highs or Lows. Just some random idea , who really knows!
 
1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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I started watching all that space weather ( Sun ) forecast. Have to say its pretty interesting stuff watching all those ejections, hoping we aint lined up dead square when they happen, which is a lot more than I thought.
Anyway the sun cycles flip every 11 years, we are at a max I believe the past couple, so there's a possibility.
Also a lot of geo thermic ( Iceland) activity has been taking place over this winter season, not to mention the heavy volume that occurs underneath the pacific and all oceans for that matter. All these things have to paly a role somewhat, somehow. To what degree I'm not sure. Their unpredictability will always be throwing a fly in the ointment not only for us, but all wx models as well.
 
1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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don't have solutions but thank you for posting the evolutions, you've at least pinned down a common thread. i'm at a loss and the only thing i could reasonably think of are faulty sst assumptions in that area but that feels like a brittle argument
 
ILMRoss said:
despite what the pity party would like you to believe, we're not far off from at least a marginal event. i think i'll tone it down some though, i think people are probably tired of the "wahh we are so close" genre of posts. horses and hand grenades, etc
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I'm with you on both ends. That didn't sound right. It's close, it's been close, we're always close, it's time to put up or shut up though haha.
 
1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long rang ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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The way that TPV has refused to follow the models east you would think there was a strong WAR that’s effecting things, but that hasn’t been an issue this year. One of the things that’s a bit aggravating is that you can see we will still be prone to a lot of CAD, so we can probably keep looking forward to some 45 degree rains until April
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Hopefully we get some truthful trends in the coming days. GEFS did have more of a anafrontal look to it with a few flakes on the backend.


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Yep. Definitely some differences between the 2 ens. CMCE with a slightly slower southern wave, better tilt of the northern stream that dives in, and a more dominant feature around the NE that’s not overbearingly squashing anything 3B49CF2A-6762-4057-B02E-CBAEA1AA6B8B.png
GEFS is straight up frontal, dominant feature (TPV near the lakes, southern wave doesn’t hold back and gets squashed). Hopefully we can speed up the TPV/slow down the southern wave and play with the northern stream some perhaps cut something off. some of those CMC members are hard to unsee, about 20% of them produce decent-big snow for NC with a ULL/coastal low, but it’s not many members that do it 9D816465-38F2-472E-829D-12FC39BEDED1.png
 
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